Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Picks, & Arizona Sportsbook Promos!

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-08-31 14:48:28

Sports betting in Arizona will be here in just a few days! Get a head start on the action by claiming free bets with the special sportsbook offers listed below! In the meantime, read up on Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and leave your picks in the comments.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds

On Monday evening, the San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks will open a three-game set at Chase Field. Entering play, San Diego has won only two of their last 10 games. Arizona has done only slightly better—winning three of their last 10 contests. Tonight, Chris Paddack will get the nod for San Diego. He will be opposed by Tyler Gilbert. Oddsmakers are expecting an easy win for the Padres in this one, pricing them as -175 favorites on the money line.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

San Diego Padres

After a spectacular rookie campaign in 2019, Paddack turned in a disappointing 4.73 ERA, 5.17 xERA, and a 5.02 FIP in the COVID-shortened season in 2020. Across 93.0 innings of work in 2021, Paddack owns a 5.13 ERA, 4.65 xERA, and a 3.72 FIP. It is becoming increasingly likely that the pitcher we saw in 2019 is no longer making his way to the mound for the Friars. In his last five trips to the mound, he has posted a 7.20 ERA and a 4.21 FIP. He is striking-out only 16.1 percent of opposing batters and has an alarmingly-high 1.65 WHIP. Paddack is no guarantee to turn in a good outing, regardless of how weak his opponent appears.

Over the last two weeks, San Diego’s offense has been missing in action—ranking 30th in OPS and 29th in ISO. This is incredibly hard to understand for a lineup that features “(player-popup #fernando-tatis)Fernando Tatis Jr Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, Tommy Pham, and Adam Frazier. Nonetheless, until proven otherwise, this is not a trustworthy offense for bettors.

Due to a plethora of injuries, and a questionable decision to not add any starting pitching depth at the trade deadline, the Padres have been using bullpen games multiple times per week. The fatigue is beginning to manifest, as this previously elite relief corps ranks only 12th in FIP over the last month. The off-day yesterday certainly helped to get this group some rest, but one day of reprieve is unlikely to be enough to completely freshen-up a bullpen that has been severely over-used lately.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Gilbert was the talk of the baseball world when he no-hit the Padres on August 14 in his first career Major League start. Hosver, since then, he has looked far more mortal—allowing six earned runs on 12 hits in 10.0 innings, posting a 5.40 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. Gilbert is a young pitcher without a lengthy track record of which can be analyzed to inform betting decisions. However, he was solid at each of his stops in the minor leagues, and at worst, figures to still keep the Diamondbacks competitive in this ballgame.

Arizona’s lineup has been one of the worst in the league for the majority of the season, but they have begun to turn things around in recent weeks—ranking a much-improved 15th in OPS and 16th in ISO over the last 14 days. These are hardly elite numbers, but they are significantly better than San Diego’s offensive output during the same stretch of action.

An unavoidable reality any time a bettor considers betting on the Diamondbacks is their unreliable bullpen. Over the last month, this group ranks 27th in FIP and is always a threat to blow a late lead.

Pick

Neither of these starting pitchers are options that bettors should feel eager to trust. The same goes for both of these offenses and bullpens. However, the fact that San Diego is priced so heavily in this matchup gives bettors some underdog value if they are comfortable with a little bit of risk. Arizona’s odds to have the lead after the first five innings are +138. This provides an opportunity to wager on the better offense in this game, while avoiding the stress of the late innings with the Diamondbacks’ bullpen. This is not a lock, but this is not the worst play in the world against Paddack, who has struggled mightily since the beginning of last year.

Pick: Arizona ML – First 5 innings (+138)

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