Chris Paddack

Minnesota Twins
Pos: SP | Hand: R
Status: Active
player props
FPTS -5 -1 3 6 10 14 18 21 25 29 SAL $6.5K $6.8K $7K $7.3K $7.5K $7.7K $8K $8.2K $8.5K $8.7K
  • FPTS: 5.85
  • FPTS: 27.7
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 28.6
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 0.85
  • FPTS: 24.2
  • FPTS: 10.85
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 8.55
  • FPTS: 4.2
  • FPTS: 26.65
  • FPTS: -8.35
  • FPTS: 5.7
  • SAL: $6.9K
  • SAL: $6.3K
  • SAL: $6.5K
  • SAL: $6.9K
  • SAL: $6.5K
  • SAL: $6.9K
  • SAL: $7.1K
  • SAL: $6.5K
  • SAL: $7K
  • SAL: $7.3K
  • SAL: $7.4K
  • SAL: $7.9K
  • SAL: $6.9K
  • SAL: $7.1K
  • SAL: $8.4K
  • SAL: $8.7K
05/04 05/04 05/06 05/08 05/10 05/11 05/14 05/19 05/25 05/26 05/30 06/05 06/10 06/16 06/22
Date Opp DKSAL FDSAL DKFPTS FDFPTS k ip ab sho w hra l er cg ha 3ba bba sba ibba whip hbp qstart 1ba k/9 2ba
2024-06-21 @ OAK $8.7K $8.6K 5.7 14 3 4 22 0 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 0 1.71 0 0 5 5.79 0
2024-06-16 vs. OAK $8.4K -- -8.35 -8 0 2 13 0 0 2 0 5 0 5 0 1 0 0 2.57 0 0 1 0 2
2024-06-10 vs. COL $7.1K $7.8K 26.65 47 6 6 23 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.95 0 1 6 8.53 0
2024-06-05 @ NYY $6.9K $7.4K 4.2 12 7 4 20 0 0 0 1 7 0 6 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 4 15.75 2
2024-05-30 vs. KC $7.9K $8.4K 8.55 17 4 5 24 0 0 2 0 4 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.24 0 0 2 6.35 1
2024-05-26 vs. TEX $7.4K $8.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-25 vs. TEX $7.3K $8.9K 10.85 18 3 5 20 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 2 5.4 1
2024-05-19 @ CLE $7K $8.7K 24.2 40 6 8 27 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.38 0 1 1 6.75 1
2024-05-14 vs. NYY $6.5K $9K 0.85 12 4 5 29 0 0 1 1 5 0 12 0 2 1 0 2.8 0 0 9 7.2 2
2024-05-11 @ TOR $7.1K $7.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-10 @ TOR $6.9K $7.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-08 vs. SEA $6.5K $7.8K 28.6 49 10 5 26 0 1 1 0 1 0 8 0 1 0 0 1.69 0 0 7 16.88 0
2024-05-06 vs. SEA $6.9K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-04 vs. BOS $6.5K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-03 vs. BOS $6.3K $7.3K 27.7 46 6 6 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.5 0 1 1 9 1
2024-04-27 @ LAA $6.9K $7.8K 5.85 15 2 5 24 0 1 1 0 4 0 8 0 1 0 0 1.8 0 0 6 3.6 1
2024-04-22 vs. CHW $7.4K $6.3K 36.15 61 10 7 27 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.86 0 1 6 12.86 0
2024-04-16 @ BAL $7.2K $6.4K -10.4 -5 2 5 32 0 0 2 1 9 0 12 0 1 0 0 2.44 1 0 9 3.38 1
2024-04-15 @ BAL $7.3K $6.4K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-04-10 vs. LAD $7.4K $6.4K 11.7 23 5 4 22 0 0 1 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 0 1.71 0 0 4 9.64 1
2024-04-08 vs. LAD $7.6K $6.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-04-03 @ MIL $7.5K $6.9K 4.2 12 2 4 20 0 0 1 0 2 0 6 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 5 4.5 0
2024-03-23 @ BOS -- -- 9.1 20 5 4 23 0 0 0 0 3 0 9 0 0 0 0 1.93 0 0 8 9.64 1
2024-03-11 @ ATL $4.5K -- 5.6 15 2 4 20 0 0 1 1 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 5 4.5 0
2024-03-05 @ STL -- -- 1.6 5 2 2 13 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 0 1 1 0 1.5 0 0 1 6.75 1
2024-02-29 @ ATL -- -- 6.5 9 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 0
2023-10-11 vs. HOU $7.5K $7.3K 12.65 19 4 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.43 0 0 1 15.43 0
2023-10-07 @ HOU $7.2K $7.3K 7 10 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.5 0
2023-09-30 @ COL $6K $7.3K 17.55 27 4 3 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.67 0 0 2 12 0
2023-09-26 vs. OAK $8.4K $7.3K 3.5 9 4 2 11 0 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 1 0 0 2.5 0 0 2 18 1
2023-09-24 vs. LAA $8.4K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-18 @ CIN $8.4K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-09 vs. NYM $8.4K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-01 @ TEX $8.4K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-23 @ MIL $8.8K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-12 @ PHI $10K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-08 vs. BAL $8.4K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-26 @ ATL $8.4K $7.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-14 vs. MIL $8.4K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-06 @ TB $8.6K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-26 vs. TOR $8.4K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-15 @ LAD $8.3K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-28 vs. KC $11K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-26 vs. NYY $8K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-22 vs. WSH $7.6K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-18 @ BOS $7.9K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-13 @ NYY $7.9K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-12 vs. CHW $7.8K $6.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-22 @ BOS -- -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chris Paddack Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

An Average Pitcher with Increased Value in a High Upside Spot

High upside spots on the main slate tonight belong to Joe Ross (vs Reds), Triston McKenzie (at Tigers), Marcus Stroman (vs Rockies), German Marquez (at Mets), Mike Minor (at Rays) and Chris Paddack (at Brewers). Despite the marginal size of the slate, you can see there is no shortage of these spots. Most of the damage against Ross has come in just a couple of starts, but he has just a 20.5 K% and the Reds have a 110 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB vs RHP, even if six players in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last year. Ross also costs $8K on DraftKings. Triston McKenzie has a 30.6 K% and five of nine projected Tigers exceed a 24 K% vs RHP, three are above 30%. However, McKenzie has a higher walk rate (20.8%) than ground ball rate (17.4%) and has generated more Barrels (13) than ground balls (12).

The Mets are a new entrant on this list, but the lineup is completely depleted and includes five projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP. Marquez has a .336 BABIP that might just be a part of the Coors experience (.313 career), but the strikeouts are increasing (23.9%, 12.9 SwStr%) and more than half his contact is on the ground (53.1%). He’s allowed just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. The value goes up on the road and especially in this spot in a great park against an empty lineup, though the 12.8 BB% is a concern in any park. Stroman actually has an above average swinging strike rate (11.9%) and that’s up even further over his last five starts (13.7%), though the actual strikeouts are more inconsistent from start to start. It’s nice to know there’s a chance though. A 53.6 GB% has allowed him to keep his Barrels/BBE reasonable (6.4%), despite a 91 mph EV. Estimators are about a run above his 2.73 ERA because five of 21 runs have been unearned. The Rockies have a 59 wRC+ and 7.7 HR/FB on the road with five of nine projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020. Stroman and Marquez could be two of the top values, especially on DraftKings, where Marquez is less than $7K, except for the weather forecast, which Kevin currently has coded Orange.

Minor and Paddack get the dome treatment, so at least they don’t have to worry about conditions and while the Rays have a 30.5 K% vs LHP this year, what we do have to worry about with Minor is that they are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (134 wRC+, 12.9 BB%, 21.7 HR/FB last seven days). While strikeouts are up for Mike Minor over the last month (26.5%), the swinging strike rate is actually down to a paltry 9.9% over that span. All of his non-DRA are well below his 5.14 ERA (65.6 LOB%), but none are below four. Eight of 13 Barrels (9.6%) have left the yard. Minor costs less than $8.5K on either site and is viable due to the upside in this spot, but it does carry significant risk by almost every other aspect. Paddack has been a perfectly average pitcher for the Padres (21.9 K%, 11.5 SwStr%, 3.96 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 3.91 DRA, 3.84 xERA) and perhaps that’s what he is, which is absolutely fine for our purposes here. The Brewers have a 77 wRC+ and exceed a 26 K% both at home and vs RHP this year. Five projected batters in their lineup tonight have struck out in more than 24% of plate appearances vs RHP since 2020. At less than $8K, Paddack would seem to have the highest floor among these pitchers, when considering all elements, including weather. One concern would be that Paddack completed six innings for just the first time last time out, but has gone beyond 90 pitches in three of his last six.

A Great Point Per Dollar Arm

Paddack has often disappointed as chalk this year, but he is a fine option on tonight's slate. The ownership won't be as high as it was the last time he faced Seattle, the price tag is a bit depressed on the DFS sites, and Paddack still has some upside with an above average strikeout rate and nearly 12% swinging strike rate. He doesn't walk many batters, and he has been absurdly unlucky this year with an unsustainable 24% HR/FB rate. I like him a lot on this slate.

Way too Cheap on Yahoo, and underpriced on DK

This will likely be the chalkiest play over on Yahoo and possibly the chalkiest on all sites today because of the lack of elite options with the possible NYY postponement. Paddack draws a matchup against the Giants which isn't the easiest spot of the slate, but Paddack has been good all season long sitting at a 3.71 xFIP, 24.2% K rate, and a tiny 4.5% walk rate. In terms of cash, Paddack is probably your SP1 or SP2, but I will preface by saying while Paddack is a fantastic point per dollar play, but a great leverage play in big field tournaments is playing the Giants lefties today.

We'll See What The Weather Says

Gerrit Cole is the clear SP1 on this slate, especially on DK, but we've got some serious weather concerns in New York, so I'm planning on being without Cole on this slate. That leaves us with Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack as the main choices. Gray has shown some concerning signs recently, so I'll start with the savings on the steady, strong control of Paddack. He's at some risk against the Giants lefties, but there are enough right-handed bats in this lineup to give him plenty of strikeout upside for his price.

Too Cheap on DK

Paddack appears to be every bit of the quality MLB pitcher that everyone thought he would be when he broke into the major leagues. He has shown impressive command for a young pitcher, and he was consistently solid throughout his rookie year with a 5.5% walk rate and a 26.9% strikeout rate. He has a 3.77 SIERA in his MLB sample size to go along with a swinging strike rate near 12%. It’s solid across the board. The one limitation is that the Padres are often careful with his pitch count, but that has little relevance on a slate that offers next to nothing for quality arms. Five or six innings of Paddack is good enough on a slate like this. He doesn’t have as good of a matchup as Kershaw, but he does benefit similarly from pitching in Petco Park. Paddack has walked just one batter over three starts this season. The command continues to be impeccable. As a nice bonus, he also faced this Arizona team three times last year — never allowing more than one run in any of those starts. I prefer him on DK where his price tag is shockingly affordable.

Chris Paddack has .215 xwOBA allowed and 27.1% K-BB in home starts

Chris Paddack has been about as locked in as it gets in home starts this year: he owns a 2.28 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 27.1% K-BB and .215 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 3.95 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, 15.7% K-BB and .335 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Paddack gets a home start tonight vs. the Rockies, who are also much worse on the road as they have a 71 wRC+ and 27.1% K rate in road games this year. The Rockies’ lineup has just one batter (Charlie Blackmon) who has a road xwOBA greater than .305 vs. RHP on the year. Paddack’s upside is capped a bit because the Padres will not likely not let him exceed 90-95 pitches, but his affordable pricing of $9600 on Draftkings and $8400 on Fanduel means he is still very much in play despite the pitch count concerns. Paddack will have a good shot at getting the ‘W’ as the Padres are -205 favorites in this game. The Rockies currently have just a 3.47 implied line.

Chris Paddack has a .205 xwOBA at home this season

Chris Paddack is in a fantastic spot at home against the Orioles (87 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB%), who have been showing a bit of life lately, but still carry a well below average offense. Paddack owns the lowest walk rate on the board (5.6%), which also makes him one of four pitchers above a 20 K-BB% tonight (20.9%). His 2.84 ERA is at least a full run below traditional estimators due to a .205 BABIP and 79.7 LOB%, but a 3.02 DRA is second best on the slate, while he’s displayed a stunning .205 xwOBA at home this year. A quality contact manager (86.6 mph aEV) with great peripherals in a strong matchup in a pitcher’s park puts him in the conversation among tonight’s top overall arms. He may be the top value on FanDuel just less than 9K, while a $10.2K price tag on DraftKings isn’t as easy a choice between he and Corbin, as he’s only exceeded 24 batters faced twice this season.

The Ace At A Discount

We've got four good pitchers tonight with similar skills and upside in Patrick Corbin, Caleb Smith, Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack. On FD, Paddack comes with a nice discount where he looks like the top choice for cash games and with strong tournament appeal as well. Even on his somewhat limited pitch count, his strong control gives him the ability to pitch deep enough into games to be useful. The Orioles will lose a DH while travelling to San Diego where Paddack has been far more dominant this season with a 32.3% K rate and just 3.2% walks.

Pitching matchup in Miami offers weather safety and strikeout prone offenses

With all the weather concern on the east coast tonight, one place where players won’t have to worry about a rain delay or cancellation is in Miami and it offers players a pretty solid pitching matchup as well. Or at least two below average offenses in an extremely negative run environment. Chris Paddack has struck out 14 of his last 43 batters, allowing one run over two starts after the Padres gave him a bit of a break. He’ll take a 21.2 K-BB% and 86.1 mph aEV up against the Marlins (78 wRC+, 18 K-BB%, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Estimators are about a run above Paddack’s 2.84 ERA due to a .224 BABIP and five of his 31 runs being unearned, but a .277 xwOBA is a bit more optimistic. The drawback is that Paddack costs $10.9K on DraftKings and only averages 21 batters per game. He’s $2.6K less on FanDuel though.

Trevor Richards with just a 20.8 K% and 10.6 BB%. He’s also allowed at least three runs in under six innings in four of his last five starts with non-FIP estimators well above his 4.18 ERA due to a 10.7 HR/FB, but if that’s sustainable anywhere in the current HR environment, it might be Miami, while an 86.5 mph aEV and 6.6% Barrels/BBE suggests he may deserve it, projecting a .312 xwOBA that’s a bit better than league average. The attraction here is that Richards costs $7.3K or less and will be facing a San Diego offense with an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP.

Stud Rookie In Prime Spot

Rookie Chris Paddack faces a Blue Jays team that ranks 7th in strikeout rate, and among the bottom third of the league in team wOBA and ISO. I will point out that the Blue Jays made a flurry of moves on Friday, bringing up top prospect Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel. In theory that should help this Blue Jays lineup as both players had strikeout rates at 18% or less in Triple-A this season, although we don’t know how Biggio will adjust to the Majors while Gurriel had a rough 27.3% strikeout rate in the Majors earlier this season before getting sent down. Paddack is someone I love in all formats given this matchup and his current form. He doesn't always go deep into games as he hasn’t topped 92 pitches in a game this season, but there is massive upside here. I lean Zack Wheeler as my top cash game option, but Chris Paddack is right there if you want to pay up for the higher strikeout upside.