The 2021 Palmetto Championship Preview: Odds & Best Bets for Top Finishes
Joe Cistaro previews the Congaree Golf Club and looks at golf odds for Top Finishes when filling out his best bets for the 2021 Palmetto Championship. Follow along as he breaks down golf betting tips to help you make a profit this week.
Without the RBC Canadian Open, again, in 2021, the PGA moves to South Carolina for the 2021 Palmetto Championship. The tournament will mark the first time the PGA is hosted by the Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, SC.
Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka headline one of the weaker fields in recent memory. With the US Open at Torrey Pines next week, many players used this week to qualify or prep for the third major of the year. Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrell Hatton, and Matthew Fitzpatrick round out the shorter odds on the board while a handful of collegiate players, like John Pak, make their professional debut. Let’s take a look at the mystery that is Congaree Golf Club.
2021 Palmetto Championship Preview
This week, Congaree Golf Club makes its debut on the PGA Tour to host Palmetto. The scorecard reads over 7600 yards but could stretch to about 7800 yards of bermuda grass from tee to green. While this is quite long for a par 71, the course should play firm and fast and players will be able to take advantage of corners to cut the distance down. The greater test will be navigating the difficult water around greens — designed by Tom Fazio to test a player’s ability to use the bump-and-run approach to short game.
The course features no rough and expansive fairways and sand… lots of sand. 152 acres of sand is a lot of sand. While players can ground their clubs, Congaree represents a unique challenge for tour players. I will be sure to weight sand saves this week along with the typical SG: OTT and SG: Approach.
Around the green considerations should be made given the layout and lack of rough around the tiered greens. Further, when parsing modeling results, longer courses, bermuda grass, and weak field strength will all be primary filters.
Kevin Kisner and Lucas Glover have experience on the course. Luke List holds the course record while Hudson Swafford worked in some practice ahead of this event. Many players in the field will come into the field with very, very limited experience on this course. For that reason, I will be limiting my exposure to this event on both my betting card and DFS contests. Instead, I will start looking ahead for US Open prices.
Palmetto Championship Golf Odds
Here are the top odds from The Palmetto Championship, accurate as of June 8 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Top finishing odds are typically derivative of outright odds.
| Golfer | Odds (6/8) |
|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | +750 |
| Brooks Koepka | +800 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +1200 |
| Tyrell Hatton | +1200 |
| Sungjae Im | +1600 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2800 |
| Harris English | +1800 |
| Alex Noren | +3300 |
| Ian Poulter | +3300 |
| Harold Varner III | +4000 |
| Lucas Glover | +4000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +4000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +4000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4000 |
| Kevin Kisner | +4000 |
| Garrick Higgo | +5000 |
Palmetto Championship Best Bets
Vincent Whaley Top 30 +200 (FanDuel)
Vincent Whaley enters the weaker Palmetto field in pretty strong form. Making nine cuts in a row, Whaley will attack Congaree Golf Club with a relatively balanced game in strokes gained. Given the field of the strength and recent form, Whaley could be a sneaky outright contender this weekend.
With such an expansive amount of sand on the course, Whaley’s third-ranked sand saves % feels like a bonus when you consider the rest of his solid overall game. Instead of a massive strength in one or more categories like SG: OTT or SG: Approach, Whaley ranks mostly in the top half of the field in the categories I am weighing for this event.
He has recently flashed upside with strong first round performances and has gained strokes putting in each of his last nine starts except his 26th-place finish at the Byron Nelson. The putter undid what was otherwise a really good performance that weekend. If Whaley can keep it together a round the green, a T30 or better is not out of the question.
Risking 1 unit to win 2
Harold Varner III Top 20 +190 (FanDuel)
Harold Varner III finds himself way further up the betting odds board than normal this weekend. With a field so weak prior to the US Open, HVIII checks boxes everywhere, especially around the green.
Varner III ranked 16th in SG: ARG in this weekend’s field and holds it together in basically every other category. Over his last 36 rounds on Bermuda grass, however, he jumps off the page — relative to field strength. SG: OTT and SG: ARG both jump to 9th when we filter for Bermuda greens. Filtering for longer courses, we do pour a bit of water on our excitement for Harold. Yet, reports suggest that the fast and firm course — without rough — will shorten the course considerably and likely mitigate the concern.
I feel pretty comfortable with HVIII landing in the top 20 this week. His recent performance at the PGA Championship was undone by an abysmal performance with the putter. If he can manage to keep the putter neutral, Varner III will make a run this weekend and hopefully cash this ticket for us.
Risking 1 unit to win 1.9
Lucas Glover Top 10 +450 (William Hill)
Lucas Glover is one of the few players on the PGA Tour with extensive experience on Congaree Golf Club as he is a Professional Ambassador. Glover gives the course rave reviews and posits that it will take a great imagination to play well at this course.
With that said, Glover’s immense knowledge is not measurable in any statistically-driven model but will surely help as he joins an inexperienced, weaker field this weekend. Glover, however, is no slouch. His 6th-ranked ARG game (10th on Bermuda) will be tested mightily. Similar to our next bet, Glover couples a strong ARG game with an impressive 10th-ranked SG: OTT average heading into the event.
His recent form is likely the best in quite some time with two top-ten finishes and only one missed cut over his last ten starts. Given the form and course knowledge, Glover should be in contention for his first win since 2011… but we will happily take a T10. William Hill is offering his T10 price at a boost to +450 — a massive leap relative to other online betting sites.
Risking 1/2 unit to win 2.25
Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 5 +300 (BetMGM)
Matthew Fitzpatrick has had success in Dubai and courses that are billed as similar to Congaree Golf Club. By all accounts, a very strong short game will be required to content this week. Fitzpatrick’s SG: Putting (8th) and SG: ARG (23rd) numbers represent strong complements to his extremely strong game off the tee (4th). The challenging areas around the green and forced usage of a bump-and-run type of shot might well suit the Englishman. Regardless, he is certainly one of the top players on the field and a worthy use of a full unit given BetMGM’s “all ties included” approach to finishing positions.
His recent form is not great with a couple of missed cuts but Congaree represents a completely different challenge. Fitzpatrick’s game seems well-suited for how this course should play. Hopefully, he contends for a win on Sunday but we will happily cash our “almosts.”
Risking 1 unit to win 3
Good luck with your golf bets this week. Be smart and keep building that bankroll as the US Open approaches.
Image Credit: Imagn