Primetime Parlay: Panthers vs. Bears Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:28:35

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Carolina Panthers versus the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.

Despite an injury to Justin Fields, the Bears continue to compete. In what feels like a meaningless football game, Chicago welcomes the Carolina Panthers for Thursday Night Football. We know an easy way to make this game meaningful. Let’s review sports betting odds, injuries, and relevant statistics before building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Panthers vs. Bears Same Game Parlay

FanDuel Sportsbook posts the Chicago Bears as three-point home favorites. Per SAO, 56% of betting tickets were placed on Carolina while 71% of the handle found the same side over the week. Despite this, the line moved to -3 after opening at -1.5. The implied game total is down from 40.5 points to 38.5, with most bets and money placed on the under.

The injury news for tonight is not great for the Panthers. Two key defensive pieces will miss tonight’s game — C.J. Henderson and Brian Burns are both out with a concussion. DJ Chark is very doubtful for tonight’s contest with an elbow injury. For the Bears, despite being taken off the injured reserve list, reports are that Khalil Herbert will not play tonight, leaving D’Onta Foreman to dominate touches in the backfield. Foreman carried the ball 20 times last weekend.

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Justin Fields will miss again and Tyson Bagent will keep the reins for at least one more game. Bagent has played well enough in his stead but the Bears continue to turn the ball over at the second-highest rate in the league (2.0 turnovers per game). Let’s have a look at the rest of the pertinent offensive statistics for both teams.

Chicago Offense
19th — 20.9 PPG
17th — 5.2 YPP
18th — 7.0 Passing YPA
6th — 4.6 Rushing YPA

Carolina Offense
26th — 17.5 PPG
31st — 4.2 YPP
32nd — 5.6 Passing YPA
20th — 3.9 Rushing YPA

Neither offense is winning any awards this season. The Bears seem to be more explosive and have run the ball relatively effectively this season. While Bagent isn’t Justin Fields, he has shown the ability to get out of the pocket and make plays with his feet. The threat of the run should open some holes for D’Onta Foreman and the running backs.

On the other hand, the Bears rank first in opposing rush defense allowing a measly 3.3 yards per rush attempt. The sledding will be very tough for Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Bryce Young will likely need to throw the ball often tonight which could give the Bears several opportunities to rush the young signal-caller. The Bears’ defense allows 7.0 yards per pass attempt — this seems to be the path of least resistance for the Panthers.

While both defenses rank in the bottom five in the league in scoring, this game feels like a potential one-sided affair. The Panthers will need to rely on a rookie at quarterback who has not made great strides this season. The environment will not be kind to Bryce Young as the Bears and their crowd will be getting up for a primetime home game. We will check with ParlayIQ but my gut thinks this is a game for the Bears.

Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF

Foreman Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
Chicago Bears Moneyline
Bears Over 20.5 Total Points

D’Onta Foreman Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

With Khalil Herbert out, we missed a great opportunity earlier in the week to bet D’Onta Foreman to go over his rushing prop. Previously below 30 yards, the news bumped his number to 57.5 rushing yards. We are still bullish on Foreman as is ParlayIQ. 67% of the simulations of this game feature Foreman exceeding this number.

The Bears have no need to throw the ball all over the yard if the running game is working. When the Bears played the Raiders, they leaned on Foreman in his three-touchdown performance. While I don’t want to portend that type of game, I won’t be shocked if Foreman gets to 100 yards and a score.

We start here in what will be an all-Chicago SGP ticket.

Chicago Bears Moneyline

ParlayIQ thinks we should consider betting on the Bears outright to win this game if we think Foreman is going over this rushing total. 62% of simulations with Foreman going over his number feature a Bears’ win. This seems pretty rational.

If Foreman is able to get to 20 touches on the ground at home, odds are the Bears are playing defense and minimizing Bagent’s passing attempts. Foreman is not the type of running back that will be on the field in passing situations. So, if we are going to start with the rushing over, the victory makes plenty of sense as our second leg.

Bears Over 20.5 Total Points

Finally, this leg does not require that much explanation. A Bears’ victory coupled with a nice night on the ground could mean the Bears score three touchdowns. With pressure on Bryce Young to play catch-up, the Bears’ defense could make some plays and force turnovers to give Bagent and the offense better field position.

ParlayIQ is obviously very bullish on this prop given what we played thus far. I am clearly pinning my hopes tonight on a Chicago rout. Let’s go, Bears!