2021 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am PGA Golf Betting Picks

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-02-10 21:58:32

Golf odds for the 2021 Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-AM were shaken up on Monday when Dustin Johnson, fresh off an overseas win at the Saudi International, withdrew from this week’s PGA Tour stop on the Monterey Peninsula. The withdrawal comes as a surprise — originally opening as the prohibitive favorite with +400 odds to win the tournament, Johnson’s recent victory coupled with his historic success at Pebble Beach made him the shortest betting favorites at the AT&T Pro-Am that we’ve seen in years. As such, online sportsbooks adjusted accordingly. Now it’s California native Patrick Cantlay (+750, Open +1000) who sits atop golf odds sheets, followed by Daniel Berger ( +1400) and Paul Casey (+1800).

Before we touch on the rest of the field and my 2021 Pebble Beach PGA golf betting picks, let’s take a closer look at the course and past winners.

2021 Pebble Beach PGA Golf Betting Preview

Course Preview

• Pebble Beach
• Par 72
• 7,051 Yards
• Field: 156 players
• Cut rule: Top 65 plus ties after 36 holes

Pebble Beach Pro-Am — Past Winners & Runners Up

• 2020 – Nick Taylor (-19), Kevin Streelman (runner up)
• 2019 – Phil Mickelson (-19), Paul Casey
• 2018 – Ted Potter Jr. (-17), Dustin Johnson
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19), Kelly Kraft
• 2016 – Vaughn Taylor (-17), Phil Mickelson
• 2015 – Brandt Snedeker (-22), Nick Watney
• 2014 – Jimmy Walker (-11), Dustin Johnson
• 2013 – Brandt Snedeker (-19), Chris Kirk
• 2012 – Phil Mickelson (-17), Charlie Wi
• 2011 – D.A. Point (-15), Hunter Mahan
• 2010 – Dustin Johnson (-15), J.B. Holmes
• 2009 – Dustin Johnson (-15), Mike Weir

Course Notes

Pebble beach, the holy grail of golf courses, is one of the Tour’s shortest tracks. Its layout requires golfers to exchange their drivers for fairway woods and long irons on several tee boxes. As a result, golfers of many different stripes can win at Pebble Beach, especially when Johnson is missing.

Among other players who have had their fair share of success near Highway 1 are Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, and Brandt Snedeker. Of the three, Spieth is the most interesting this week, though if you believe Phil and Sneds can find their zen in Big Sur like a pair of Dharma Bums, then maybe their long odds suffice.

The greens at Pebble are also some of the smallest on Tour, which can become quite difficult to hit in windy conditions. Overall, Pebble Beach is a second-shot golf course. With many holes forcing golfers to land their tee shots within similar distances, golfers might not need a ton of power off the tee, but power still doesn’t hurt. It’s better to be hitting a pitching wedge from X distance than an 8 iron, after all.

The weather could get tricky this week, so I’ll be looking for ball-strikers who can get up and down if and when they miss the green in challenging conditions.

Also notable, the tournament will include one round at Spy Glass Hill. Typically, the first three rounds rotate between Pebble, Spy Glass, and Monterey Country Club, but pandemic-protocols have led to organizers nixing the pro-am part of the tournament and clipping the cutline to 36 holes rather than 54.

For both golf betting and PGA DFS purposes, the PGA weather report is worth monitoring, especially for the first two rounds. Tee times sit close enough that any advantage between waves will be marginal; however, if gnarly conditions are in store for either Thursday or Friday, then Spy Glass becomes more playable with its tree-lined fairways while golfers at Pebble become exposed to every bit of the wind’s brutality.

2021 Pebble Peach PGA Golf Betting Picks

With longshot bets on Keegan Bradley (250-1) and Matthew NeSmith (300-1), last’s week’s golf betting card for the Waste Management Open provided a sweat. Unfortunately, a triple-bogey to end his round on Friday derailed NeSmith from getting his first PGA Tour victory, but a T7 was still his best non-Puerto Rico Open finish on Tour. His second-best finish came at none other than Pebble Beach last year when he finished 11th. I like the way NeSmith, who actually leads the field in strokes gained approach this season (tied with Will Zalatoris), is playing, but his golf odds have shortened to +7500, making it tougher to justify a flier on the 27-year-old.

And for the second week in a row, I called out a golfer who would subsequently prove me wrong (maybe you should bet on NeSmith after all). The first time, it was Viktor Hovland. The second time, it was Brooks Koepka, who, fresh off missing three consecutive cuts for the first time in his career, would win the West Management Open with a remarkable Sunday performance.

Jason Day +2100

1 Unit to Win 21

Day tees off at Pebble Beach on the heels of back-to-back missed cuts, but as Koepka recently taught us, don’t let recent results distract from “buy low” opportunities on golfers of their pedigree. At first glance, this price may not stick out as a bargain, but this week’s field is much weaker than we saw in Arizona. Not a single golfer is ranked inside the top-10, per the Official World Golf Ranking. We’d typically see Day closer to +1700 considering the competition. The good news is that Day’s form isn’t as bad as it seems. He ended 2020 with a 12th at the RSM, preceded by a MC at the Masters and a 7th at the Houston Open. Most recently, Day gained strokes everywhere but on the greens at TPC Scottsdale, including +2.5 strokes gained approach. Historically, Day has been about as dominant at Pebble Beach as one can be without actually winning. He has four consecutive top-5 finishes and has never missed a cut. In total, he has top-10 finishes in nine-of-11 appearances, and he’s lost strokes with his putter only three times on these greens. With that said, +2100 is good enough for me.

[Bet Day +2100 at FanDuel Sportsbook]

Rickie Fowler +5000

1 unit to win 50

Fowler gained strokes approach on his second shots for the third consecutive tournament, but like the story above, it’s Fowler’s putter that continues to let him down. I won’t rehash everything I’ve written about Fowler of the last two weeks. Instead, I’ll leave it at this: the field gets weaker, but Rickie’s odds remain the same — thus, he makes another appearance on this week’s golf betting card.

[Bet Fowler +5000 at PointsBet]

Kyle Stanley +10000

1/5 (0.20) Unit to win 20

Among the field, Stanley ranks 4th in strokes gained approach and 7th in strokes gained ball striking this season. He’s played in four events so far, missing his only cut during his 2021 debut in January. Stanley needs to uncharacteristically make some putts if he wants to win, but at 100-to-1 odds he’s worth a small play.

[Bet Stanley +10000 at PointsBet]

Chesson Hadley +20000

1/10 (0.10) Unit to Win 20

Hadley is a dart, but darts have a solid history of hitting the bull’s eye in this tournament. In fact, Hadley has come reasonably close with two top-10s dating back to 2014. Last year he gained 4.7 strokes tee-to-green en route to an 18th-place finish.

[Bet Hadley 200-to-1 at BetMGM]

Bronson Burgoon +25000

1/10 (0.10) Unit to win 25

Burgoon is striking the ball well, gaining 3.6 strokes and 2.6 strokes, respectively, in his last two tournaments. He made the cut both times despite giving strokes away with his putter. He’s also 2-for-2 in his pair of appearances at Pebble. +25000 at FanDuel is significantly generous relative to his consensus +15000 price tag across the industry.

[Bet Burgoon 250-to-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook]

2021 Pebble Beach PGA Betting Card

2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: -9.8 Units

For more golf betting tips and picks, check out our PGA Golf Betting Guide.

Image Credit: Imagn