2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-01-30 17:23:02

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Max Homa captured his sixth PGA Tour victory with his win at Torrey Pines last weekend. Sam Ryder held the lead the lead for 54 holes but a few miscues left him still seeking his first win on tour. Staying in California, we see another three-course event at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Tom Hoge took last year’s edition and is back to defend his title. Will the top of the odds board come through again? Will we finally see a longshot pay off? Let’s dig into the field and course.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 30th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

• 2022 – Tom Hoge (-19)
• 2021 – Daniel Berger (-18)
• 2020 – Nick Taylor (-19)
• 2019 – Phil Mickelson (-19)
• 2018 – Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)

The field strength is precipitously lower this week at Pebble Beach than our more recent events. Only two golfers in the top 15 of the OWGR will tee it up this week and only five golfers in the top 30. Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick come in as the highest-ranked golfers while Jordan Spieth, Tom Hoge, and Seamus Power make up the remaining top 30 players. Hoge is back to defend his title while Jordan Spieth won the event in 2017.

This marks one of the first events where the LIV Tour seemingly brings a dramatic impact on field strength and is likely a sign of things to come later in the golf season. That said, this presents a great opportunity for many golfers in the middle to back of the field that are chasing their first victory or fighting for precious FedEx Cup points.

Jordan Spieth finished runner-up to Tom Hoge last year and will be a popular selection due to his track record at this event. Maverick McNealy was all the rage last year because of his two top-five finishes in his home event but disappointed bettors in 2022. Will he bounce back? Let’s go over the course rotation before highlighting a few golfers.

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

• Course: Pebble Beach (two Rounds)
• Date: February 2 – 5
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 6,972 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua

Every player will play each of the three courses in the rotation and will fight to make the cut and play Pebble Beach one more time on Sunday. After the Pro-Am over three days, the top 60 and ties will play on Sunday.

Pebble Beach features some of the most beautiful and iconic views in all of golf and will be a joy to watch, especially on Sunday. Pebble Beach is also the only course equipped with shotlink data. Any strokes gained data available for this event will be exclusive to the two rounds played at the iconic course.

Pebble Beach features some of the smallest greens on tour at about 3,500 square feet on average. Fairways will be important as well as SG: Approach. The greens are some of the more challenging to hit so SG: ARG will be considered over the week as well. The course is pretty short so players will be playing plenty of target golf and laying up. If prevailing winds become an issue, Pebble Beach will be far tougher.

• Course: Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
• Date: February 2 – 5
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,041 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua

Of the three courses, Spyglass will play the toughest. Five holes are completely exposed to the coast. When winds are up, the course is very challenging despite otherwise being guarded by trees throughout the course. The greens are considerably larger (5,000 square foot average) than that of Pebble Beach. Around the green play might not be as pivotal on this course.

• Course: Monterey Peninsula (one round)
• Date: February 2 – 5
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 6,957 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua

Monterey Peninsula is by far the easiest course of the rotation playing an average of 0.7 strokes under par. The course should be considerably softer than normal after dramatic flooding in January put the event in jeopardy. If winds are down, players will look to feast at the four Par 5’s that yield plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities. Last season, inexplicably after setting the two-round scoring event at the event, Seamus Power went +3 at Monterey Peninsula to pull out of contention. Power is a very likely bounce-back candidate as one of the top-ranked players in the field. One would imagine he will not struggle at Monterey again.

As ever, though, winds are the big concern at a coastal event. Fortunately, this is the last time we will be breaking down multiple courses for a PGA Tour event. For statistics, I am looking at SG: Approach, Fairways, SG: ARG, SG: Putting (emphasis on Poa), Par 5 scoring, and BOB%. I will also likely filter models for windy conditions, poa annua greens, and easier courses to see player’s performance over 50 rounds on courses of that variety.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Seamus Power +2000

After two days and facing the easiest course of the rotation, everything seemed to be in the hands of Seamus Power last year at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Power, unfortunately, fell out of contention with an ill-timed clunker on the easiest Monterey Peninsula course. I can’t imagine Power doesn’t relive that day in his mind and won’t be looking for a strong rebound this season. He certainly doesn’t come cheap but should be on our radar for betting, DFS, and one-and-done selection.

We have not seen much of Seamus aside from a 25th-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. That said, Power had a phenomenal fall season finishing fifth and third, and earning his second tour victory in his previous three events. If Power finds his form, he will be tough to ignore at Pebble Beach.

Andrew Putnam +2800

Andrew Putnam gained 10.4 strokes putting at the Sony Open. 10.4 strokes! There is some joke here related to that statistic and his name but I will spare you.

Putnam has not missed a cut since last June at The Memorial and seems to be in great form coming into an event where he should be considered one of the top golfers in the field. Last season, Putnam played well at this event and finished in sixth place. In this field, he leads in SG: Short Game and is 21st in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds. Putnam is another player on the list of players ready to break out. In a weaker field, he must be considered.

Ben Griffin +7000

Ben Griffin makes his debut appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in good form. He has not missed a cut since the Fortinet and comes in with some eye-popping recent strokes gained numbers.

Griffin is in the top ten in ball striking, tee-to-green, and strokes gained approach in the field. At 23rd in putting, his all-around game does not take away from his short game. Griffin finished 12th in the Sony Open and has back-to-back top-40 finishes in stronger fields. At 70/1, he seems like a strong top-finisher bet and an outright bet for a small price. We will keep an eye on Mr. Griffin.

Joseph Bramlett +11000

At an elevated price, Joseph Bramlett presents some value as an outright top finisher selection in good recent form. While he missed the cut at this event last season, Bramlett has made six straight cuts with two top-20 finishes.

Bramlett is a sensible DFS golf play at a likely low price given his recent form. He comes in 22nd in the field in SG: Total over his last 36 rounds and 15th in SG: T2G. Bramlett’s putting is a problem so we will need a spike week. At 110/1, the risk is baked into his price.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn