PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: John Deere Classic
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
John Deere Classic
If you are new to RotoGrinders premium, welcome to the team. Make sure to check out all of the great PGA content and join the Discord for a lot of fun each week. If you have been a premium member for a long time, you know that I will take it on the chin when a week goes poorly. I’m not sure I could have constructed a worse outcome for the Travelers Championship, at least for my bankroll. I decided to avoid Xander Schauffele (even though he rated out well and I usually play him every week) and my only hope on Sunday was a big round from Patrick Cantlay. He seemingly forgot how to golf and racked up nine bogeys and a double bogey… IN ONE ROUND. Brian Harman was fine, but the picks featured in this article struggled as a whole. Lanto Griffin, Brendon Todd, and Jhonattan Vegas all missed the cut. I try to motivate myself even more after bad results, so I’m ready to get right back into it at the John Deere Classic.
The big storyline heading into this week’s event is the field set to tee it up in Illinois. There isn’t a single player in this field that is ranked in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. This is one of those weeks where it will feel like a grind more than anything to do research and to build lineups. We should use this to our advantage. More often than not, DFS players tend to rely on optimizers and models when building lineups for events with little interest. This means the chalk will concentrate even more than usual and with very little disparity in talent between the top and bottom of the field, it sets up as a good week to make pivots in all formats. This doesn’t mean we should avoid all chalk, but the lower-owned golfers are more appealing than most weeks. Additionally, it could be a good week to leave a little salary on the table.
Now, let’s get to the course. TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,289 yards. Of the 42 golf courses I have data for, this one rates out as the sixth easiest year over year. Golfers will need to make at least 20 birdies to find themselves in contention on Sunday. There appears to be a lot of wind in the forecast on Thursday, but the winds die down the next three days and we might even get some rain to soften the course on Friday. Make no mistake about it, this will be another birdie fest. Off the tee, golfers will see very wide fairways and a few forced layups. This certainly isn’t a bomber’s track, but you can be aggressive if you so choose (see Cameron Champ here last year). With the fairways being easy to hit and with average-sized greens, the green in regulation percentage here (74%) is one of the highest on tour.
In general, the easier the course and the easier the greens are to hit, the more it turns into a putting contest. This certainly aligns with the John Deere Classic, as Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, and Jordan Spieth have had the most success here over the years. Fairways, wedges, and putting is a combination that really works well on this golf course. You can also play the regional narrative, as there are a lot of golfers in the field that live or played golf in this area of the country. I’m not looking to target a specific skillset off the tee, but will certainly be looking for good putters and golfers that can rack up birdies.
Downloadable and Customizable Model for the John Deere Classic
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Key Statistics for the Week
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bent)
- Driving Accuracy (or Total Driving)
Weather Forecasts
Hole Yardage Specialists (based on holes at TPC Deere Run)
- Webb Simpson
- Kevin Streelman
- Denny McCarthy
- Lanto Griffin
- Brendon Todd