PGA DFS First Look: Honda Classic

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-02-26 17:28:38

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

Event Preview

It was a fun week in Mexico, even though the Sunday round didn’t quite have the drama that many were hoping for. The story that will end up being a footnote is the free drop that Dustin Johnson got on the front nine. His drive was right up against a tree, so he was prepared to chip it backwards back onto the fairway. There just so happened to be a cart path on the right side of the tree, so when he took his stance to hit the ball backwards, his heel was on the cart path and he got a free drop away from the tree that he eventually hit onto the green. At the time, Rory McIlroy had cut the lead to three and was in the middle of the fairway. I’m not saying DJ did anything wrong, as he certainly took advantage of the rules. After that, it was smooth sailing to the clubhouse and he picked up his 20th career PGA Tour win.

This week we head to Florida for the Honda Classic. This is the first event that was really hurt with the schedule change. Many elites played the Genesis Open and the WGC-Mexico and have decided to take this week off as they gear up for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship. With that said, we still have three of the top ten golfers in the world (Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Rickie Fowler) teeing it up this week at PGA National. I don’t know about you, but I’m excited to get back to the early lineup lock. There are few things that I will wake up at five o’clock for, but sweating my golf lineups is certainly one of them.

PGA National is one of the toughest Par 70 courses on tour. It measures 7,140 yards and features water in play on 13 of the 18 holes. Speaking of water, golfers will have to deal with the “Bear Trap” on holes 15-17, which is one of the toughest three-hole stretches in all of golf. There are only two par fives on the course and both are only reachable with a good drive in the fairway. Many golfers will elect to club down off the tee, which is shown in the tournament statistics. Driving distance here is around 10 yards shorter than the PGA Tour average. That’s notable because driving accuracy and greens in regulation are also below the PGA Tour average. In other words, even with golfers laying back off the tee, they are still having trouble finding these fairways and greens.

While we shouldn’t rule out the bombers, this is definitely more of a second shot type of golf course. The two most common approach ranges are from 175-200 yards and from 150-175 yards. We’ve seen a lot of ball strikers play well here throughout the years, which makes sense given how difficult the course can play. We typically see the winning score around 10-under par with a cut well over par. With that said, we usually see strong winds in the area, but the forecast calls for winds less than 10 MPH on all four days. We could see a slightly better scoring environment than we’ve seen here in the past. In addition to ball striking stats, I will also be looking at strokes gained putting on Bermuda and at bogey avoidance.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Justin Thomas (2018), Rickie Fowler (2017), Adam Scott (2016), Padraig Harrington (2015), Russell Henley (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Bogey Avoidance
3) Par 4 Scoring
4) Strokes Gained Putting (emphasis on Bermuda)
5) Proximity (Emphasis from 150-175 & 175-200 Yards)

Sports Betting Card

YTD: 2 wins, +20 units

As I’ve mentioned almost every week, golf betting requires patience. There will often be month-long stretches without hitting a bet, but that’s to be expected when you are betting outrights and top fives. I’m considering adding some matchup bets in the coming weeks, so let me know if that’s something you would be interested in. As for the WGC-Mexico, we didn’t have much of anything going. It was a two-man race between Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy and I decided to fade the top tier. Tyrrell Hatton had a chance at a top five, but starting Saturday’s and Sunday’s round five over par in his first eight holes. We now head to Florida for one of my favorite stretches of golf. We’ll try to get an outright this week at the Honda Classic.

Outright Bets

Brooks Koepka 14/1 (two units)
Webb Simpson 20/1
Russell Knox 50/1
Scott Piercy 50/1

Top Five Bets

Russell Knox 10/1
Scott Piercy 10/1
Jason Kokrak 12/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	Cuts	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Justin Thomas	$11,900	$13,000	$18,800	3	5	0%	0%	0%	2/4	1	71	3	92	500
Rickie Fowler	$11,200	$11,900	$17,400	9	10	0%	0%	0%	4/5	83	1	6	41	24
Brooks Koepka	$10,700	$11,400	$17,200	4	13	0%	0%	0%	3/4	500	128	26	51	33
Adam Scott	$10,300	$10,800	$16,700	31	15	0%	33%	0%	4/4	13	14	1	500	12
Sergio Garcia	$10,000	$11,200	$16,600	29	15	0%	-25%	0%	5/5	33	14	2	31	8
Gary Woodland	$9,800	$11,000	$16,200	23	18	0%	-20%	0%	3/3	49	2	61	500	500
Webb Simpson	$9,600	$10,600	$15,800	21	21	0%	13%	0%	1/1	5	500	500	500	500
Cameron Smith	$9,500	$10,700	$15,700	24	24	0%	-14%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Daniel Berger	$9,400	$10,400	$15,000	67	32	0%	10%	0%	2/4	29	91	86	2	500
Billy Horschel	$9,300	$9,900	$15,000	39	34	0%	33%	-11%	2/5	96	4	8	83	126
Luke List	$9,200	$10,200	$14,800	69	38	-9%	0%	0%	3/3	2	52	10	500	500
Byeong-Hun An	$9,100	$9,800	$14,600	54	41	-8%	24%	7%	1/1	5	500	500	500	500
Alexander Noren	$9,000	$10,500	$14,700	26	41	-8%	-56%	-8%	1/1	3	500	500	500	500
Emiliano Grillo	$8,900	$10,300	$14,900	53	37	21%	0%	0%	3/3	8	43	74	500	500
Lucas Glover	$8,800	$9,700	$14,100	108	55	-27%	0%	0%	2/5	17	21	78	114	88
Zach Johnson	$8,700	$9,900	$14,100	76	58	-25%	-33%	-5%	2/4	500	27	92	72	33
Russell Henley	$8,600	$9,500	$13,700	105	72	-47%	-9%	-4%	4/5	24	43	92	44	1
Matt Wallace	$8,500	$9,600	$14,200	38	62	-17%	0%	-31%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
JT Poston	$8,400	$8,900	$13,500	233	80	-42%	27%	-4%	1/1	500	27	500	500	500
Charl Schwartzel	$8,300	$9,300	$13,800	96	63	-15%	12%	0%	0/2	500	500	500	132	132
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$8,200	$9,800	$14,100	36	55	14%	-6%	5%	1/1	68	500	500	500	500
Scott Piercy	$8,100	$10,000	$14,300	106	50	32%	-7%	0%	2/3	17	500	129	31	500
Michael Thompson	$8,000	$10,100	$14,200	136	51	30%	-23%	0%	3/5	24	128	53	44	120
Joel Dahmen	$7,900	$8,600	$11,900	173	162	-171%	-30%	-12%	1/1	33	500	500	500	500
Russell Knox	$7,800	$9,700	$14,200	62	51	32%	11%	-6%	3/5	105	112	26	3	2
C.T. Pan	$7,800	$8,600	$12,700	102	94	-20%	40%	3%	2/2	17	37	500	500	500
Chesson Hadley	$7,700	$9,400	$12,300	77	124	-59%	-79%	-8%	2/4	127	500	21	128	24
Whee Kim	$7,700	$7,400	$10,200	168	465	-411%	-24%	-3%	0/2	500	71	129	500	500
Graeme McDowell	$7,600	$9,100	$13,500	255	66	17%	25%	8%	3/5	83	14	5	72	46
Talor Gooch	$7,600	$8,700	$12,600	158	106	-21%	22%	0%	0/1	83	500	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$7,600	$8,800	$12,300	164	123	-45%	-5%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kelly Kraft	$7,500	$7,700	$12,100	192	144	-78%	38%	-14%	1/2	8	71	500	500	500
Jimmy Walker	$7,500	$9,000	$12,200	94	129	-47%	-34%	-2%	3/3	33	21	43	500	500
Chris Kirk	$7,500	$8,400	$12,000	181	146	-81%	2%	-7%	2/4	33	500	103	72	12
Scott Brown	$7,400	$8,100	$12,200	247	136	-51%	25%	-15%	4/5	46	57	10	92	75
Chris Stroud	$7,400	$8,200	$12,300	224	127	-31%	30%	-15%	2/3	33	500	78	500	12
Wyndham Clark	$7,400	$8,700	$11,800	298	154	-77%	-38%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Dylan Frittelli	$7,400	$8,800	$13,000	87	85	20%	30%	3%	1/1	11	500	500	500	500
Jason Kokrak	$7,300	$9,400	$14,000	110	63	44%	8%	0%	1/3	500	500	108	83	41
Sungjae Im	$7,300	$9,200	$13,700	88	74	33%	7%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Harold Varner	$7,300	$8,600	$12,400	145	109	8%	28%	5%	2/3	72	57	78	500	500
Kevin Tway	$7,300	$8,700	$11,800	93	130	-23%	-7%	24%	0/1	119	500	500	500	500
Brian Harman	$7,300	$8,400	$12,700	73	110	3%	36%	-23%	4/5	33	48	134	11	58
Bud Cauley	$7,200	$8,900	$12,300	201	119	7%	-11%	-3%	1/1	500	27	500	500	500
Cameron Davis	$7,200	$8,000	$11,500	138	196	-98%	-16%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matt Jones	$7,200	$8,600	$11,800	260	175	-75%	-54%	-22%	0/2	500	500	129	500	80
Ryan Palmer	$7,200	$9,200	$12,700	74	97	30%	-11%	0%	4/5	83	37	26	25	2
Jason Dufner	$7,200	$8,700	$11,800	163	171	-66%	-62%	-16%	4/4	17	14	61	17	500
Trey Mullinax	$7,100	$9,100	$13,200	218	87	41%	9%	-4%	0/1	500	91	500	500	500
Brian Gay	$7,100	$9,200	$12,200	130	131	0%	-75%	-7%	1/2	105	60	500	500	500
Patton Kizzire	$7,100	$9,600	$12,600	89	103	31%	-62%	3%	2/3	127	66	26	500	500
Patrick Rodgers	$7,100	$8,400	$12,300	147	125	8%	24%	-13%	2/4	33	126	140	44	500
Martin Kaymer	$7,100	$8,800	$12,600	184	110	24%	8%	-6%	2/3	500	4	500	44	88
Brandon Harkins	$7,100	$7,900	$11,700	262	177	-61%	5%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jim Furyk	$7,000	$9,200	$12,700	203	97	42%	-14%	-3%	1/1	46	500	500	500	500
Sung Kang	$7,000	$8,500	$12,800	190	100	40%	40%	-10%	2/3	137	52	10	500	500
Martin Trainer	$7,000		$12,000	128	148	-9%		-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Rory Sabbatini	$7,000	$8,000	$11,700	227	170	-31%	4%	8%	3/5	17	71	134	11	33
Kyle Stanley	$7,000	$7,900	$12,100	40	118	29%	53%	22%	1/3	500	71	43	500	120
Harris English	$7,000	$8,300	$11,500	348	195	-56%	-37%	-1%	2/3	33	60	500	72	500
Brendan Steele	$7,000	$9,300	$12,400	139	124	22%	-65%	-13%	4/4	500	14	14	11	33
Adam Schenk	$6,900	$8,000	$11,700	334	171	-18%	3%	6%	1/1	29	500	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$6,900	$8,300	$11,800	100	150	2%	3%	3%	0/2	500	82	500	92	500
Nick Watney	$6,900	$8,800	$12,200	155	132	18%	-28%	-11%	4/4	33	14	500	41	24
Sebastian Munoz	$6,900	$7,800	$11,400	270	218	-53%	-7%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Austin Cook	$6,900	$9,000	$12,300	135	119	35%	-14%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shawn Stefani	$6,900	$7,400	$11,600	318	199	-42%	21%	-7%	0/3	76	82	500	103	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,900	$8,900	$11,900	225	159	-3%	-73%	-10%	2/3	64	48	86	500	500
Scott Langley	$6,800	$8,800	$12,100	217	133	25%	-30%	-4%	1/2	500	500	500	51	80
Stewart Cink	$6,800	$9,100	$11,900	86	141	20%	-72%	5%	5/5	46	27	26	31	58
Roberto Castro	$6,800	$8,500	$11,400	314	200	-29%	-62%	3%	0/2	500	500	500	114	120
Curtis Luck	$6,800	$7,500	$11,800	482	175	-12%	25%	-22%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,800	$8,300	$12,100	131	132	28%	21%	0%	3/4	72	4	500	92	12
Sam Burns	$6,800	$8,500	$12,000	114	141	22%	2%	0%	1/1	8	500	500	500	500
Anders Albertson	$6,800	$7,500	$11,400	243	208	-36%	8%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sepp Straka	$6,800	$7,500	$11,300	351	236	-46%	1%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Vaughn Taylor	$6,700	$8,400	$11,900	221	147	23%	0%	-2%	1/2	59	112	500	500	500
Kevin Streelman	$6,700	$8,500	$12,000	171	142	27%	-2%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Keith Mitchell	$6,700	$8,200	$11,500	162	200	-16%	-35%	-5%	0/1	105	500	500	500	500
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez	$6,700	$7,600	$10,700	400	394	-71%	-38%	-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Armour	$6,700	$8,000	$10,900	119	245	-35%	-39%	10%	0/3	105	71	500	103	500
Peter Uihlein	$6,700	$8,700	$11,800	97	168	12%	-51%	-8%	0/2	96	500	500	500	109
Bill Haas	$6,700	$8,600	$11,900	269	154	18%	-26%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,700	$7,400	$11,200	59	248	-38%	5%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Nick Taylor	$6,600	$7,400	$11,800	292	164	21%	40%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Carlos Ortiz	$6,600	$7,500	$11,500	282	190	2%	19%	2%	0/2	500	500	120	114	500
Ernie Els	$6,600	$7,900	$11,800	398	173	12%	10%	-19%	1/3	500	71	70	83	500
Roger Sloan	$6,600	$7,400	$11,800	280	168	19%	38%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Alex Prugh	$6,600	$7,300	$10,800	471	295	-42%	-2%	-3%	0/1	500	500	500	103	500
Hunter Mahan	$6,600	$8,200	$11,000	372	257	-29%	-67%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Austen Truslow	$6,600		$10,200	1181	458	-60%		-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Tom Hoge	$6,600	$7,300	$11,200	285	249	-27%	9%	-7%	1/2	130	500	37	500	500
Padraig Harrington	$6,500	$7,800	$11,800	197	170	24%	20%	-13%	2/5	127	112	43	1	88
Johnson Wagner	$6,500		$11,800	325	169	25%		-11%	0/3	500	82	92	500	109
Brian Stuard	$6,500	$8,100	$11,800	252	174	18%	-7%	-21%	2/4	130	27	500	72	24
Richy Werenski	$6,500	$8,200	$11,500	178	194	9%	-29%	0%	0/2	83	100	500	500	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,500	$7,400	$11,500	340	200	4%	20%	-5%	1/3	500	82	78	31	500
Sam Saunders	$6,500	$7,800	$11,700	266	182	12%	8%	-5%	1/2	105	500	14	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$6,500	$8,100	$11,800	169	179	14%	-13%	-27%	2/3	59	11	92	500	500
Grayson Murray	$6,500	$7,600	$10,600	301	324	-32%	-28%	1%	0/2	105	91	500	500	500
Julian Etulain	$6,400	$7,400	$11,300	336	236	1%	10%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Hank Lebioda	$6,400	$7,700	$11,000	449	290	-18%	-29%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Lucas Bjerregaard	$6,400	$8,000	$11,600	51	180	20%	-8%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Andrew Landry	$6,400	$8,200	$11,800	116	164	35%	0%	-5%	0/1	76	500	500	500	500
Cameron Tringale	$6,400		$11,200	619	249	-6%		-6%	3/5	105	65	86	44	41
Adam Long	$6,400	$7,600	$11,000	137	262	-12%	-18%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Tyler Duncan	$6,400	$7,200	$10,700	409	268	-13%	7%	4%	1/1	24	500	500	500	500
Seth Reeves	$6,400	$7,500	$10,300	500	395	-32%	-30%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Brice Garnett	$6,300	$7,600	$11,000	124	234	9%	-3%	8%	1/3	96	500	500	103	75
Jim Knous	$6,300	$7,100	$10,200	506	445	-24%	-9%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Max Homa	$6,300	$7,500	$11,400	485	223	11%	5%	-5%	0/1	500	500	500	128	500
Brandon Hagy	$6,300	$7,700	$11,000	532	274	-8%	-28%	-9%	1/1	500	21	500	500	500
Morgan Hoffmann	$6,300	$7,000	$10,700	808	271	-6%	9%	3%	3/4	49	2	61	500	80
J.J. Henry	$6,300		$10,700	606	293	-10%		-1%	0/4	105	100	500	103	109
Vijay Singh	$6,300	$7,500	$10,700	938	310	-12%	-20%	-3%	2/3	500	500	6	122	63
Seamus Power	$6,300	$7,100	$10,300	428	388	-19%	-5%	-2%	0/2	124	71	500	500	500
Denny McCarthy	$6,200	$7,900	$11,400	185	191	28%	-1%	9%	0/1	105	500	500	500	500
Robert Streb	$6,200	$8,000	$11,300	199	236	14%	-35%	-3%	2/4	76	82	26	59	500
Bronson Burgoon	$6,200	$7,900	$11,000	123	244	12%	-24%	5%	1/2	83	500	14	500	500
Roberto Diaz	$6,200	$7,700	$11,500	553	201	21%	0%	-8%	1/1	33	500	500	500	500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	$6,200	$7,400	$11,000	345	273	0%	-5%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Stephan Jaeger	$6,200	$7,600	$10,600	304	340	-8%	-31%	-2%	0/1	133	500	500	500	500
Kramer Hickok	$6,200	$7,300	$11,200	195	223	17%	18%	4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Chase Wright	$6,200	$7,500	$10,300	274	368	-9%	-25%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Peter Malnati	$6,100	$7,500	$11,200	281	257	12%	-8%	-9%	1/3	49	71	120	500	500
Hudson Swafford	$6,100	$8,000	$11,600	242	201	26%	-23%	-12%	3/5	64	100	65	136	61
Ryan Blaum	$6,100	$8,000	$11,100	289	246	16%	-40%	2%	1/2	105	37	500	500	500
Cody Gribble	$6,100	$7,100	$10,300	730	393	-5%	-6%	-2%	1/2	83	70	500	500	500
Joey Garber	$6,100		$10,600	410	329	1%		0%	0/1	500	100	500	500	500
Kyle Jones	$6,100	$7,000	$10,600	288	330	0%	2%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
D.A. Points	$6,100	$7,000	$10,200	624	461	-10%	-7%	-2%	1/2	500	500	500	72	61
Rod Pampling	$6,100	$7,000	$10,200	931	557	-11%	-9%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Adam Svensson	$6,000	$7,600	$11,200	384	256	18%	-14%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ben Crane	$6,000		$11,400	373	219	28%		-4%	4/5	74	62	108	68	69
Mac Hughes	$6,000	$7,900	$10,300	418	370	4%	-54%	0%	2/2	59	66	500	500	500
Alex Cejka	$6,000	$7,200	$10,900	369	268	14%	6%	1%	1/3	500	128	21	92	500
John Huh	$6,000	$8,100	$11,000	352	258	16%	-58%	-4%	3/4	24	100	14	17	500
Fredrik Jacobson	$6,000	$7,100	$10,300		374	3%	-4%	-1%	2/4	500	128	26	92	12
Jim Herman	$6,000	$7,000	$10,200	813	402	-1%	-5%	0%	2/3	500	27	108	7	500
Andrew Filbert	$6,000	$7,000	$10,000		773	-5%	-9%	0%	0/1	137	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend