PGA DFS First Look: The Northern Trust
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
Editor’s note: If you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide. And if you’re looking for a more in-depth golf betting tips strategy check out Golf Betting Picks: The Northern Trust.
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Event Preview
Huge congrats to J.T. Poston for taking down the Wyndham Championship last week. It wasn’t my finest week of DFS, but I luckily had a nice showing in the showdown contests on Saturday and Sunday. During the offseason, I’m going to put together an article that outlines my strategy for weekend and showdown contests and I plan to make it free, so be on the lookout for that. This week we have the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The top 125 golfers in the standings are eligible to compete, but four have already withdrawn — Rafael Cabrera Bello, Sam Burns, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Casey. The top 70 golfers in the standings after this week will move on and play the BMW Championship and the top 30 from there will move on and play the Tour Championship to compete for the $15 million first place prize.
If you are looking for course history this week, you’ll have to go back a few years. Liberty National Golf Course hasn’t hosted a professional tournament since 2013 (The Barclays). It also hosted the same event in 2009, but there were so many complaints about the course that they had to give 12 of the holes face lifts and they essentially re-surfaced all the greens. I generally don’t look at course history that’s older than five years, so I will be taking it out of my model this week. With that said, it’s worth noting that Adam Scott won here in 2013 and Tiger Woods finished runner up in both 2009 and 2013. The course did play tough in those years, but reports suggest they had 20+ MPH winds at both events. The weather looks very calm for this week, so we can expect some fairly low scores.
The course itself is a Par 71 that measures 7,370 yards. It features three par fives and five long par fours, so long iron play will be critical this week. While golfers haven’t fallen in love with the course, the views are absolutely spectacular. You can see the Manhattan skyline behind a few greens and a couple of the holes feature nice views of the Statue of Liberty. We tend to think of New York courses as tree-lined, but this course is wide open. It almost looks more like links golf that your standard tree-lined course. The fairways are close to tour average when it comes to width and the rough is graduated, which means it gets thicker as you get farther away from the fairway.
Based on player interviews, accuracy off the tee will be important this week. Golfers don’t want to be hitting out of the tall fescue and there are plenty of water hazards (10) on the course. However, given the fact that this is a very long course, I do want golfers that have some distance off the tee. Rather than looking at accuracy or distance, this is a week to focus on total driving. The greens are pure bentgrass and are expected to run at 12-12.5 on the stimpmeter. As noted earlier, long iron play will be critical. When in doubt, I like to lean on strong ball strikers and that’s the plan of attack this week. Even in windy conditions here in the past, it’s worth noting that the top five finishers in both events were in the top 20 in strokes gained tee to green the year of the tournament.
Before we get out of here, I wanted to hit on a little strategy for the week. At least 70 of the 121 golfers will make the cut this week, so over 60% of the field will play the weekend. You will obviously need 6-of-6 to have a chance to win tournaments, but I would rather play scorers over cut makers this week. I expect there to be a high 6-of-6 percentage, so it will all come down to scoring and finishing position. And finally, good luck to everyone competing in the Fantasy Golf World Championship this week on DraftKings. If you don’t have a seat and want to root for yours truly, I’ll take all the help I can get. I was fortunate enough to win four tickets to the big dance.
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Bogey Avoidance
3) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
4) Birdie or Better %
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)
Sports Betting Picks
We have officially hit a cold streak. We didn’t have J.T. Poston as an outright, Billy Horschel and Joaquin Niemann missed out on top fives, and we missed all of our top 20 bets. It was the worst betting week of the year and it goes to show how hard golf betting can be if you don’t hit winners. We were rolling earlier in the season, but have had little luck every since. The good news is that there are three events left and they are some of my favorite events on tour.
YTD: 5 wins, -35.5 units
Outright Bets
Justin Rose 20/1
Patrick Cantlay 22/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Adam Scott 40/1
Tony Finau 50/1
Emiliano Grillo 130/1
Top 5 Bets
Adam Scott 8/1
Tony Finau 10/1
Patrick Reed 10/1
Rory Sabbatini 14/1
Joaquin Niemann 16/1
Emiliano Grillo 26/1
Top 20 Bets
Lucas Glover 4/1
Jim Furyk 5/1
Kevin Streelman 6/1
Bud Cauley 6/1
Emiliano Grillo 6/1
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2009 & 2013)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Sal | Odds | DK % | FD % | FDRFT % | Cuts | 2013 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $11,400 | $12,000 | $17,700 | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 19 | 500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $9,200 | $11,300 | $16,000 | 22 | 10% | -29% | -29% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $12,000 | $12,200 | $18,500 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Webb Simpson | $9,400 | $11,200 | $16,000 | 22 | 13% | 13% | 0% | 2/2 | 15 | 8 |
| Dustin Johnson | $10,700 | $11,900 | $16,800 | 16 | -33% | -33% | -33% | 1/2 | 75 | 15 |
| Justin Rose | $9,600 | $11,500 | $16,100 | 20 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 2 | 41 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,400 | $11,700 | $16,800 | 15 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Tiger Woods | $9,000 | $10,900 | $15,900 | 25 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 2 | 2 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,300 | $11,100 | $16,000 | 22 | 11% | 11% | -14% | 1/1 | 9 | 500 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,000 | $11,400 | $16,100 | 20 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,800 | $11,000 | $16,000 | 24 | -67% | 0% | -43% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Collin Morikawa | $8,500 | $10,500 | $14,900 | 40 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,400 | $10,300 | $14,700 | 42 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,900 | $10,800 | $15,600 | 29 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,100 | $10,100 | $14,700 | 46 | -73% | 0% | -6% | 2/2 | 19 | 28 |
| Adam Scott | $8,800 | $10,700 | $15,100 | 39 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 1 | 58 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,100 | $9,900 | $14,500 | 49 | -5% | 0% | 0% | 0/1 | 102 | 500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | $7,700 | $9,500 | $13,500 | 79 | -3% | -3% | -3% | 1/2 | 13 | 87 |
| Byeong Hun An | $7,800 | $9,700 | $14,000 | 62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,700 | $10,600 | $15,100 | 39 | 7% | 0% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | $7,500 | $9,100 | $13,400 | 82 | 0% | 8% | -13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $8,000 | $9,800 | $14,500 | 52 | -5% | 4% | -5% | 0/1 | 82 | 500 |
| Tony Finau | $8,300 | $10,200 | $14,800 | 46 | 0% | -6% | -12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,800 | $9,800 | $14,200 | 59 | 4% | -4% | 0% | 1/2 | 71 | 102 |
| Jason Day | $8,200 | $10,400 | $14,900 | 41 | 20% | 0% | -7% | 2/2 | 25 | 12 |
| Jim Furyk | $7,100 | $8,600 | $12,600 | 115 | 0% | 0% | -4% | 2/2 | 6 | 15 |
| Shane Lowry | $7,900 | $9,600 | $14,000 | 63 | -17% | 0% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,800 | $9,700 | $14,000 | 63 | -4% | -4% | -4% | 1/1 | 2 | 500 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,300 | $8,700 | $12,800 | 104 | -5% | 8% | 0% | 0/1 | 500 | 115 |
| Sungjae Im | $7,500 | $9,300 | $13,400 | 82 | -6% | -9% | -20% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Streelman | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,200 | 138 | -9% | -2% | -7% | 2/2 | 19 | 58 |
| Scott Piercy | $7,300 | $8,700 | $12,700 | 106 | -7% | 6% | 0% | 1/2 | 43 | 112 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $7,500 | $9,300 | $13,400 | 82 | -3% | -6% | -17% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $7,200 | $8,800 | $12,700 | 107 | -2% | -4% | -4% | 0/1 | 102 | 500 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,600 | $9,200 | $13,300 | 86 | -23% | -9% | -6% | 0/1 | 96 | 500 |
| Russell Knox | $7,000 | $8,100 | $12,000 | 155 | -18% | 0% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,600 | $9,500 | $13,400 | 80 | -3% | -10% | -7% | 1/2 | 75 | 12 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $8,600 | $10,000 | $14,700 | 43 | -13% | 10% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Charles Howell | $7,500 | $9,000 | $13,100 | 90 | -18% | -3% | -3% | 2/2 | 33 | 70 |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,400 | $9,200 | $13,200 | 79 | 24% | 17% | 24% | 1/1 | 9 | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,900 | $9,900 | $14,400 | 54 | 0% | -9% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,200 | $8,500 | $12,300 | 127 | -22% | -4% | -2% | 1/1 | 50 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $8,000 | $10,000 | $14,600 | 48 | 5% | -5% | 0% | 1/1 | 19 | 500 |
| Matthew Wolff | $7,700 | $9,400 | $13,400 | 81 | -14% | -6% | -10% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,600 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 205 | 0% | -1% | -4% | 1/1 | 58 | 500 |
| Bud Cauley | $6,800 | $8,200 | $12,100 | 153 | 2% | -3% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,700 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 178 | -1% | 0% | 1% | 1/1 | 500 | 64 |
| Sergio Garcia | $7,400 | $9,100 | $13,300 | 85 | 3% | 0% | -3% | 2/2 | 37 | 31 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,200 | 137 | -7% | 0% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,100 | $8,800 | $12,600 | 108 | 4% | -9% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Sepp Straka | $6,600 | $7,900 | $11,800 | 179 | 4% | -1% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $6,900 | $8,300 | $12,100 | 147 | -2% | -3% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Nate Lashley | $6,800 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 199 | -14% | 0% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,400 | $8,900 | $12,900 | 99 | -11% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Aaron Wise | $6,900 | $8,500 | $12,200 | 125 | 11% | 0% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,300 | $9,000 | $13,100 | 93 | 2% | -5% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,600 | $9,400 | $13,400 | 79 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1/2 | 89 | 9 |
| JT Poston | $7,200 | $8,900 | $12,700 | 106 | 2% | -7% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $6,900 | $8,400 | $12,300 | 130 | 7% | 0% | -4% | 1/1 | 66 | 500 |
| Abraham Ancer | $6,900 | $8,400 | $12,200 | 132 | 3% | -4% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Danny Willett | $7,200 | $8,700 | $12,600 | 111 | -9% | -4% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $7,400 | $9,000 | $13,100 | 89 | -3% | 0% | 0% | 1/2 | 13 | 79 |
| Russell Henley | $7,000 | $8,500 | $12,400 | 126 | 2% | -2% | -2% | 0/1 | 75 | 500 |
| Mac Hughes | $6,500 | $7,600 | $11,300 | 234 | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Graeme McDowell | $6,800 | $8,100 | $11,900 | 171 | -6% | -6% | -3% | 0/1 | 75 | 500 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,300 | $8,800 | $12,700 | 107 | -14% | -7% | -7% | 2/2 | 25 | 70 |
| Brice Garnett | $6,800 | $8,000 | $11,800 | 174 | -8% | -3% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,700 | $7,700 | $11,500 | 218 | -13% | -3% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Nick Taylor | $6,600 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 238 | -9% | 5% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Laird | $6,900 | $8,200 | $12,000 | 151 | -5% | -2% | 2% | 1/1 | 72 | 500 |
| Peter Malnati | $6,400 | $7,100 | $10,900 | 286 | -14% | -4% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,100 | $8,400 | $12,200 | 132 | -14% | -2% | -2% | 1/1 | 33 | 500 |
| Wyndham Clark | $6,400 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 242 | 3% | 2% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Corey Conners | $6,500 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 221 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Roger Sloan | $6,400 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 241 | 5% | 3% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $7,000 | $8,200 | $12,100 | 150 | -13% | 0% | -2% | 1/1 | 500 | 24 |
| Ryan Armour | $6,500 | $7,600 | $11,300 | 242 | -4% | -5% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $6,600 | $8,000 | $11,900 | 166 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,200 | $8,900 | $12,900 | 100 | 7% | -2% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Andrew Landry | $6,700 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 194 | -4% | -3% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,100 | $8,600 | $12,600 | 121 | -4% | -4% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 288 | -7% | -2% | -3% | 0/2 | 89 | 102 |
| Matt Jones | $6,300 | $7,100 | $11,000 | 271 | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1/1 | 33 | 500 |
| Nick Watney | $6,700 | $8,000 | $11,900 | 167 | 3% | 0% | -1% | 2/2 | 9 | 6 |
| Keith Mitchell | $6,500 | $7,700 | $11,600 | 207 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 276 | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $6,400 | $7,500 | $11,300 | 245 | 1% | -4% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,600 | $7,500 | $11,300 | 247 | -17% | -6% | -9% | 0/1 | 96 | 500 |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,500 | $7,700 | $11,500 | 216 | 4% | -1% | 0% | 2/2 | 70 | 31 |
| Harold Varner | $6,400 | $7,200 | $11,000 | 271 | -6% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 411 | -10% | -20% | -3% | 1/1 | 58 | 500 |
| Troy Merritt | $6,300 | $7,300 | $11,300 | 251 | 2% | -2% | -12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Talor Gooch | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 368 | 3% | -13% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Sam Ryder | $6,500 | $7,300 | $11,100 | 247 | -9% | 1% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 289 | -9% | -3% | -4% | 0/1 | 93 | 500 |
| J.J. Spaun | $6,200 | $7,200 | $11,000 | 278 | 4% | -4% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 361 | -3% | -12% | -1% | 1/2 | 43 | 92 |
| C.T. Pan | $6,400 | $7,200 | $11,000 | 271 | -6% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Max Homa | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 379 | 1% | -15% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $6,600 | $7,300 | $11,300 | 247 | -17% | 1% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Schenk | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 292 | -2% | -4% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $6,800 | $8,100 | $12,000 | 156 | -2% | -2% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Michael Thompson | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 329 | -7% | -9% | 1% | 0/1 | 111 | 500 |
| Scott Brown | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 321 | 1% | -8% | -4% | 1/1 | 62 | 500 |
| Joel Dahmen | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 300 | -11% | -5% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Danny Lee | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 332 | 5% | -10% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Gay | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 382 | -6% | -16% | 1% | 2/2 | 43 | 12 |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,700 | $7,800 | $11,600 | 209 | -10% | -4% | -1% | 1/1 | 500 | 31 |
| Kevin Tway | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 316 | -4% | -6% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Luke List | $6,300 | $7,500 | $11,300 | 245 | 7% | -4% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 403 | -3% | -19% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Long | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 500 | -5% | -22% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 374 | 2% | -14% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,200 | $7,100 | $11,000 | 279 | 3% | -2% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,100 | $8,600 | $12,600 | 119 | -2% | -2% | -6% | 2/2 | 6 | 52 |
| Chesson Hadley | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 339 | 4% | -11% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Every | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 284 | -5% | 0% | -1% | 1/1 | 9 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 316 | -4% | -6% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Chris Stroud | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 395 | -15% | -17% | 0% | 1/1 | 33 | 500 |
| Cameron Champ | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 397 | -8% | -18% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 413 | -11% | -21% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site % Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2014 – 2018 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |