Golf Betting Picks: The Northern Trust
With the 2019-20 PGA Tour regular-season officially behind us, the top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings now compete in the three-week FedEx Cup Playoffs — previous FedEx Cup Playoffs had been four weeks — for the first-place prize of $15 million.
Past FedEx Cup Champions include Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth. Tiger Woods is the only golfer to win it twice (‘07 and ’09), and he nearly spoiled Rose’s 2019 Cup win.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs feature a progressive cut that shortens the field from 125 to 70 after the first week and from 70 to 30 for the final tournament.
Week 2 of the playoffs is the BMW Championship hosted at Medinah Country Club, followed by the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club to close out the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
For now, we’ll break down this week’s course and golf odds as we bring you PGA golf betting tips and golf betting picks for The Northern Trust.
The Northern Trust Course — Liberty National Golf Course
This year The Northern Trust, formerly known as The Barclays, moves back to Liberty National for the first time since 2013 where patrons will not only get to see some of the best golfers in the world but also a remarkable view of the Manhattan skyline, Hudson River, and the Statue of Liberty.
Liberty National is a par 71 playing just under 7,400 yards. A total of 90 bunkers are scattered throughout the course. Golfers will navigate 10 water hazards but should be able to stay clear of the fescue, which only comes into play if golfers become excessively errant off the tee.
Along with the 2009 Barclays, Liberty National played host to the 2017 Presidents Cup, but there’s not any course history to look beyond that.
The course was right in the middle of the pack in terms of difficulty in 2013 and winning scores were -9 in 2009 and -11 in 2013. Many changes were made between 2009 and 2013, so it’s best to ditch course history and focus on recent form from proven ball-strikers.
Golf Betting Favorites at The Northern Trust
The Northern Trust hosts an extremely strong field thanks to tinkering done to FedEx Cup points. 2019 marks the first year where the winner of the FedEx Cup will, by necessity, be the winner of the Tour Championship.
The new format makes the first leg of the playoffs more important, even for those who have locked up spots in the Top 70 and Top 30, which is why you see almost all of the top golfers, aside from Paul Casey, making the trip to New York.
Brooks Koepka +850, Rory McIlroy+1100, Dustin Johnson +1400 and John Rahm +1400 are the top four online sports betting favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tiger Woods +2700 returns for only his fifth tournament since adding to his Green Jacket collection in April. Tiger has struggled since his historic Masters victory, missing two of four cuts. Outside of the two MCs, Woods T9 at the Memorial Tournament and T21 at the U.S. Open. While course history shouldn’t be weighted much, Woods does have two runners-up at Liberty National.
Patrick Cantlay +2200, Rickie Fowler +2200, Tommy Fleetwood +2700, Webb Simpson +2700 and Xander Schauffele round out the favorites at The Northern Trust.
Webb Simpson and Tommy Fleetwood at +2700 present value (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) in this range. Simpson wasn’t able to win the Wyndham Championship after opening as the pre-tournament favorite, but he’s finished runner-up in back-to-back tournaments, making it three second-place finishes in his last five tournaments. One reason to be wary is Simpson’s recent strokes gained putting. Simpson gained nearly seven strokes at the St. Jude Invitational and gained 4.7 strokes last week. For those looking to stroll down Narrative Street, Simpson is trying to impress Tiger Woods who, as Presidents Cup Captain, decides four of the 12 golfers that will represent the United States this winter.
Fleetwood didn’t finish far behind Simpson with T4 at the St. Jude Invitational one week after placing second at The Open Championship.
Both golfers bring tremendous recent form to The Northern Trust and have a little more to play for than some golfers at the top.
It’s worth noting that you can find Cantlay +2500 and Fowler +2800 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds), my two other favorite plays at the top.
The Northern Trust Mid-Tier odds
The middle of the betting board gets interesting with golfers like Jason Day +4500 (FanDuel), Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (DraftKings), Bryson Dechambeau +5500 (Draftkings) and Byeong Hun An +6600 (BetStars) among others.
Hun An came close to earning his first PGA Tour win but fell victim to J.T. Poston’s 62 on Sunday. Regardless, Hun An would have finished no better than runner-up due to a bogey on No. 18. An’s odds this week are nearly identical to last week’s despite a much stronger field, which is the main reason he won’t have my backing.
Day +4500 is a great price, but you never know what kind of ailment might cause the Australian to skip out. Of course, this is less of a concern when making golf betting picks than it is when selecting a DFS team. Day has struggled his last few tournaments (T40, MC, T66)
Gary Woodland is +4000 at FanDuel but +7500 at DraftKings. Woodland is a ball-striker and this is a ball-striking course. For the 2019-20 season, Woodland is No. 7 in strokes gained tee-to-green, No. 6 in strokes gained ball-striking, No. 8 in strokes gained off-the-tee and No. 10 in strokes gained approach. He might be short on sleep after his wife gave birth to twins last week, but his odds at DraftKings are plenty long enough to find value. He’s the steal of the mid-tier at +7500.
Golf Betting Longshots at The Northern Trust
I have written plenty about Corey Conners over the last few months, and I won’t stop this week considering he’s +25000 (use our BetStars promo code to get these odds) for the Northern Trust.
Conners continues to gain plenty of strokes everywhere but on the green. In fact, he’s lost strokes putting in nine of his last 10 tournaments, including the Wyndham and St. Jude where he finished T22 and T27, respectively. As you’ve probably read before, Conners is No. 8 in strokes gained tee-to-green, No. 2 in ball-striking, No. 7 off-the-tee and No. 8 in strokes gained approach this tour season. I’ll be betting on him as long as he stays at least +20000. All we need is four days of mediocrity on the greens.
I’ll also stick with Lucas Glover +10000 (DraftKings) who had a disappointing week at the Wyndham after a T7, T10 and T20 in his previous three events. Glover simply couldn’t keep up while losing 4.8 strokes putting and others taking advantage of last week’s birdie fest. Though Glover’s game has suffered on the green during extended stretches before, Putting performances can quickly turnaround from one week to the next.
The last two longshots I’ll add to my betting card are Emiliano Grillo +15000 (BetStars) and Sungae Im +11000 (DraftKings).
Grillo is a superb ball-striking talent, and his stats prove it. The Argentinian is No. 9 in strokes gained ball-striking, No. 25 off-the-tee, and No. 2 in strokes gained approach.
Im doesn’t have the stats that Grillo has, but he does enter the week with his best finish of the summer. Along with a T6 at the Wyndham, Im has made seven of his last eight cuts. Im finished inside the Top 21 in five of those.
The upside is there for both Im and Grillo.
And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images