PGA DFS First Look: WGC-Mexico Championship
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Event Preview
We had a rain-soaked week in Los Angeles. The Genesis Open provided some fun highlights, including a stretch for Tiger Woods where he opened his third round with an incredible birdie, eagle, birdie, birdie stretch. Conditions were extremely tough late on Sunday and it became a test of endurance at that point. Justin Thomas looked prime to run away with the event, but he missed far too many short putts on his final ten holes. In the end, J.B. Holmes walked away with the win. He was in terrible form prior to the event, so team course history picked up a win in the debate that will never end.
This week we head to Mexico City for the WGC-Mexico Championship. This event was previously held after the Honda Classic, but that’s no longer the case with the new PGA Tour schedule. Club de Golf Chapultepec is a Par 71 that measures 7,345 yards. The length looks daunting on paper, but Mexico City is nearly 7,500 feet above sea level. The ball travels 9% further, so the adjusted length of the course is close to 6,700 yards. There aren’t many courses like this on the PGA Tour and most say that the course has a European Tour feel to it. There could be something to that angle — 11 of the top 22 finishers at this event in 2017 and eight of the top 17 in 2018 were Euro Tour regulars.
The course features kikuyugrass from tee to green and poa annua grass on the greens (very similar to last week at Riviera). It’s a flat course that features narrow, tree-lined fairways. Length is not a premium here, especially with the altitude. Placement off the tee (preferably on the correct side of the fairway) is more important than distance. In fact, very few drivers will be hit here this week and the last two winners were actually below the field average in fairways hit for the week. This course puts a premium on approach play and putting. Even though the greens are slightly tougher to hit than the PGA Tour average, scrambling isn’t particularly difficult.
This event has only been played here two times, so make sure to only use course history from the last two years. In those two renditions, the top four stroke gainers were Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Tyrell Hatton. All four are good with their irons and elite putters (especially on poa). Tiger Woods and Justin Rose have both mentioned the importance of a high ball flight, but I would only look at a statistic like apex height in a tiebreaker scenario. We should have great weather on top this week with temps in the 70s and little to no wind in the forecast.
Cut Rule: There is not cut this week. Barring a withdrawal, all golfers are guaranteed to play all four rounds.
Recent Winners of this Event: Phil Mickelson (2018), Dustin Johnson (2017)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Par 5 Scoring
4) Bogey Avoidance
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)
Betting Card
Yearly Numbers
Wins: 2
+26 units
We didn’t have much going at the Genesis Open. All four of the outright bets made the cut, but none were in contention on Sunday. Adam Hadwin fell apart on the weekend and Jason Kokrak missed far too many three-foot putts to come close to posting top-five finishes. Again, betting on golf is a bit different than other sports. We expect to have more goose eggs than wins. Here is the card for this week’s WGC-Mexico Championship:
Outright Bets
Xander Schauffele 25/1
Hideki Matsuyama: 30/1
Tommy Fleetwood: 40/1
Sergio Garcia: 40/1
Top Five Bets
Tyrrell Hatton: 14/1
Danny Willett 30/1
Note: all bets are one unit.
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2017-2018)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds | Cuts | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | $11,800 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 4 | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 2 | 5 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,500 | $11,900 | $17,500 | 3 | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 7 | 1 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,100 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 8 | 11 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 7 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,700 | $11,700 | $16,800 | 6 | 15 | 0% | -33% | 0% | 2/2 | 20 | 3 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,300 | $11,400 | $16,400 | 9 | 17 | -20% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 37 | 16 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $10,000 | $11,500 | $16,500 | 5 | 17 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,800 | $11,300 | $16,000 | 2 | 19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 48 |
| Tiger Woods | $9,500 | $11,200 | $15,900 | 13 | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Phil Mickelson | $9,300 | $11,000 | $15,600 | 18 | 26 | -11% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 1 | 7 |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,100 | $11,100 | $15,800 | 7 | 24 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 18 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,000 | $10,900 | $15,500 | 26 | 28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 25 |
| Tony Finau | $8,900 | $10,700 | $15,400 | 12 | 29 | -8% | 0% | -8% | 1/1 | 27 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $8,800 | $10,500 | $15,400 | 24 | 31 | -8% | 7% | -17% | 2/2 | 14 | 12 |
| Marc Leishman | $8,700 | $10,800 | $15,400 | 16 | 29 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 37 | 500 |
| Paul Casey | $8,600 | $10,600 | $15,400 | 19 | 31 | 0% | -7% | -25% | 2/2 | 12 | 16 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,500 | $10,400 | $15,200 | 20 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 30 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,400 | $10,000 | $15,200 | 17 | 34 | -6% | 10% | -13% | 2/2 | 9 | 38 |
| Webb Simpson | $8,300 | $9,800 | $15,100 | 21 | 34 | -6% | 21% | -6% | 1/1 | 37 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $8,200 | $10,300 | $14,900 | 14 | 36 | -5% | -18% | 0% | 2/2 | 14 | 2 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,100 | $10,100 | $14,300 | 10 | 49 | -15% | -28% | 0% | 2/2 | 25 | 20 |
| Sergio Garcia | $8,000 | $10,000 | $14,800 | 29 | 40 | 0% | -5% | 0% | 2/2 | 7 | 12 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,000 | $9,900 | $14,400 | 15 | 47 | -5% | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 37 | 61 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,900 | $10,100 | $15,100 | 23 | 34 | 26% | 6% | 6% | 2/2 | 50 | 38 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,900 | $9,500 | $14,200 | 34 | 51 | -13% | 13% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Charles Howell | $7,800 | $9,700 | $14,300 | 49 | 50 | 0% | 4% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,800 | $9,900 | $14,300 | 31 | 49 | 8% | -5% | 0% | 2/2 | 3 | 38 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,700 | $9,800 | $14,200 | 22 | 51 | 0% | -13% | -4% | 2/2 | 58 | 20 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,700 | $9,500 | $13,600 | 38 | 69 | -22% | -10% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $7,600 | $13,500 | 56 | 71 | -21% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 48 | ||
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,600 | $9,100 | $13,400 | 43 | 78 | -31% | 0% | -3% | 2/2 | 30 | 16 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,500 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 27 | 61 | 3% | 17% | 3% | 2/2 | 30 | 48 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,400 | $9,700 | $13,900 | 28 | 58 | 9% | -12% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Hao-Tong Li | $7,400 | $8,900 | $14,100 | 36 | 54 | 13% | 33% | 0% | 1/1 | 63 | 500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $7,300 | $9,200 | $13,900 | 33 | 65 | 9% | 14% | -7% | 2/2 | 3 | 10 |
| Joost Luiten | $7,300 | $7,800 | $13,000 | 71 | 86 | -18% | 30% | 0% | 2/2 | 37 | 25 |
| Matt Wallace | $7,300 | $8,800 | $13,500 | 37 | 74 | -6% | 18% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Henrik Stenson | $7,200 | $9,600 | $13,800 | 35 | 67 | 14% | -14% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Shane Lowry | $7,200 | $9,300 | $13,600 | 44 | 70 | 8% | 0% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,200 | $9,100 | $12,700 | 47 | 97 | -22% | -18% | -2% | 2/2 | 29 | 11 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,100 | $9,400 | $12,400 | 50 | 106 | -18% | -47% | 2% | 1/1 | 52 | 500 |
| Alexander Noren | $7,100 | $9,600 | $13,400 | 25 | 84 | 3% | -39% | -5% | 2/2 | 14 | 55 |
| Lee Westwood | $7,100 | $8,700 | $13,400 | 60 | 78 | 8% | 18% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 28 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,700 | 46 | 96 | -2% | 10% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 63 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,000 | $8,900 | $12,700 | 32 | 97 | -5% | -7% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Tom Lewis | $7,000 | $12,600 | 57 | 109 | -12% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | ||
| Emiliano Grillo | $6,900 | $9,400 | $12,900 | 53 | 91 | 7% | -34% | -5% | 1/1 | 500 | 52 |
| Kevin Na | $6,900 | $8,600 | $12,000 | 55 | 134 | -9% | -9% | 4% | 1/1 | 500 | 52 |
| Eddie Pepperell | $6,900 | $8,000 | $11,800 | 40 | 156 | -22% | -4% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $6,800 | $9,300 | $12,900 | 41 | 89 | 16% | -21% | 0% | 2/2 | 30 | 32 |
| Russell Knox | $6,800 | $9,000 | $12,900 | 63 | 91 | 14% | -5% | -2% | 1/1 | 500 | 70 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | $6,800 | $8,100 | $11,800 | 109 | 169 | -18% | -12% | -4% | 1/1 | 9 | 500 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $6,700 | $8,200 | $12,100 | 45 | 138 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 5 | 500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,700 | $8,300 | $11,900 | 93 | 146 | -4% | -10% | -2% | 1/1 | 12 | 500 |
| Richard Sterne | $6,700 | $7,400 | $11,700 | 128 | 178 | -15% | 0% | 2% | 1/1 | 500 | 72 |
| Andrew Putnam | $6,600 | $9,000 | $11,900 | 48 | 144 | 5% | -30% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Abraham Ancer | $6,600 | $8,400 | $12,400 | 61 | 118 | 11% | -2% | -2% | 1/1 | 52 | 500 |
| Danny Willett | $6,600 | $8,100 | $12,200 | 74 | 144 | 4% | -2% | -6% | 1/1 | 500 | 69 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | $6,500 | $8,000 | $11,900 | 51 | 156 | 3% | -4% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| David Lipsky | $6,500 | $7,700 | $11,000 | 176 | 239 | -9% | -9% | 2% | 2/2 | 48 | 63 |
| Aaron Rai | $6,500 | $7,000 | $11,800 | 108 | 183 | -5% | 5% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $6,400 | $7,900 | $11,400 | 39 | 204 | -2% | -11% | 2% | 1/1 | 25 | 500 |
| Aaron Wise | $6,400 | $8,500 | $11,800 | 59 | 154 | 10% | -17% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | $6,400 | $7,200 | $10,600 | 157 | 325 | -7% | -5% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Sang-hyun Park | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 127 | 433 | -11% | -11% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Jake McLeod | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 358 | -5% | -5% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | |
| Shaun Norris | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,300 | 83 | 361 | -3% | -8% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | $6,200 | $11,800 | 58 | 400 | -5% | -23% | 1/1 | 54 | 500 | ||
| Alexander Bjork | $6,100 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 68 | 174 | 13% | 0% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Shugo Imahira | $6,100 | $7,300 | $11,000 | 65 | 242 | 6% | -5% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| George Coetzee | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 236 | 336 | 6% | -3% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthew Millar | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 225 | 403 | 0% | -9% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2017 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |