PGA DFS: Greenbrier Classic Top Targets
It’s tough to follow the drama that the US Open provided us two weeks ago, but the Travelers Championship did its best this past weekend.
Travelers Championship Recap
For a while, it looked like Bubba Watson was going to run away with things, but Bubba made sure that there was drama until the end. He was eventually victorious in a playoff, knocking off the surging Paul Casey in two holes. In start contrast to the US Open, the players tore up the course, with 67 players posting scores in the red numbers.
Last week’s picks were a mixed bag, although they were largely disappointing overall. Brandt Snedeker had a Top 5 finish locked up before his double-bogey on 17. Na rebounded nicely on Day 2, but the damage was already done on Thursday and he missed the cut. Russell Knox screwed us all with the poor performance, then withdrawal. Wilcox missed the cut by one stroke, which is disappointing because I think he had a Top 20 performance in him had he made the cut. Brendon Todd was our low-owned special and it paid off with a T15 finish. Everyone was on Cameron Smith, but he rewarded with another made cut for dirt cheap. We’ll try to do better this week.
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Greenbrier Classic
This week’s tournament takes place at The Old White TPC in White Sulphur Springs, WV. It is known for its very wide fairways and undulated greens. It plays as a Par 70 and measures out to 7,287 yards. The field is highlighted by last week’s champion, Bubba Watson, and features seven other players in the Top 25. Last year, Angel Cabrera won with a 264 (-16) and I wouldn’t be surprised to a few several post scores in the 260s this week (at least -11). Pars won’t be good enough and too many will lead to a missed cut. In looking at the hole layouts and distances, it doesn’t appear that there will be many chances to drive any Par 4s in one or Par 5s in two. This will place an emphasis on excellent approach shots and knocking in birdies.
Relevant Stats:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Greens in Regulation
Birdie Average
Course History
Note: Putting is always going to be important. I didn’t highlight it specifically this week, but better putters are always going to be preferred.
Webb Simpson
Odds to win: 20-1
DraftKings: $10,900
Victiv: $9,100
I get it. This is pretty chalky of me to take Simpson here. Other than his high price (on DK) and potentially high ownership % (on Victiv), I don’t see many reasons to fade him. He has a history on this course, registering three Top 10 finishes in just five appearances. He is ranked 8th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG:T2G) and 33rd in Birdie Average. He also ranks Top 20 in ball striking and this is regarded as a ball striker’s course. The most interesting stat I stumbled upon for Simpson was that he ranks 21st in Putts per Round in the first round, while ranking no better than 132nd for the other three rounds. Simpson should get off to a hot start, although I expect him to keep it going for all four rounds for a Top 5 finish.
Also Consider: Bubba Watson (duh), Paul Casey
J.B. Holmes
Odds to win: 26-1
DraftKings: $9,500
Victiv: $10,300
I came into my research thinking that I would arrive at Bill Haas at this price point. While I also like Haas, I ended up with Holmes for a variety of reasons. My favorite two are that he ranks in the Top 11 in Birdie Average (6) and SG:T2G (11), which could lead to some seriously low numbers. Holmes isn’t known as being a great putter, but he has proven that he can get hot and knock down a ton of putts. Although driving distance isn’t a requirement here, it doesn’t hurt either. The fairways are extremely forgivable, so Holmes should be gripping it and ripping it this weekend. I like Holmes’ price more on DK than Victiv (opposite of Simpson). Most will be on Haas and Kisner, so Holmes could be the differentiator you need to separate yourself in GPPs.
Also Consider: Bill Haas, Kevin Kisner
Kevin Na
Odds to win: 40-1
DraftKings: $9,100
Victiv: $9,300
We’re going back to the well here because I don’t think Na will have back-to-back bad weeks. I like him for the same reasons I liked him last week. Kevin Na isn’t a big-hitter (ranked 180th in driving distance), but that shouldn’t be a huge issue here. He is ranked 17th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 18th in Birdie Average. As I mentioned last week, Na can struggle with the putter at times, but I think he makes enough putts to compete for a Top 10 finish.
Also Consider: Brendon Todd, Cameron Tringale
Jason Bohn
Odds to win: 60-1
DraftKings: $7,400
Victiv: $7,400
I was surprised to find that my research led me to Bohn, but the numbers never lie. Bohn ranks in the top 50 in SG:T2G (46), GIR (32), and Birdie Average (25). Another stat where he ranks favorably is the Proximity to Hole stat, where he ranks 3rd on Tour. I think this will be crucial as there should be plenty of pins to attack. He is in the Top 10 in approaches from 50-125 yards, which is what likely leads to his impressive proximity numbers. His putting numbers are average (44th in total putting), but this won’t matter as much if he can continue to stick it close. He has two runner-up finishes and four Top 10s this season. Since missing the cut at the Players Championship, he has rebounded to make four of five cuts, including two Top 10s. I don’t expect Bohn to be highly owned and he could be a nice sleeper to differentiate yourself from the field.
Also Consider: Robert Streb, Carl Pettersson
Shawn Stefani
Odds to win: 70-1
DraftKings: $7,000
Victiv: $7,700
Stefani is one of the best values on DraftKings this week, coming in at an affordable $7,000. His Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR) is almost 70%, good for 31st on tour. That combined with his Strokes Gained:Putting ranking of 38th should be a nice combination for some low scores. That leads me to my favorite stat for Stefani this week, which is his Birdie Average ranking of 13th. Low numbers will be required here, and Stefani has the goods to challenge for several rounds in the 60s. He has also made the cut in both of his appearances in this tournament.
Also consider: Colt Knost
Hudson Swafford
Odds to win: 130-1
DraftKings: $5,900
Victiv: $6,000
There seems to be great fanfare across the industry for Scott Brown and Morgan Hoffmann as punts. While I don’t hate either, I think Hudson Swafford will be my guy for cheap. He is the cheapest of the bunch ($5900 on DK) and has a decent shot of making the cut. He fired a 68 in Round One of the Travelers Championship before falling off in Round Two and missing the cut. He is 36th in GIR and 20th in Birdie average. He can also get hot with the putter as evidenced by his 31st ranking in Stroke Gained: Putting. He also made the cut here last year, which should give him some confidence going into Thursday.
Also Consider: Morgan Hoffmann, Scott Brown