PGA DFS: John Deere Classic Top Targets
I don’t care who ended up winning the tournament, my favorite part of the Greenbrier Classic was Robert Streb going on a mad birdie run by putting with his wedge, including this 30-footer. Streb damaged his putter on the 9th hole and was forced to putt the back nine with his wedge. He proceeded to log five birdies to force a playoff, where he was allowed to get a new putter. Unfortunately, he was knocked out of the playoff before he could even use it, but Streb reminded us how good these guys really are, regardless of the equipment they are using.
Travelers Championship Recap
Last week’s picks were good other than the obvious miss, Webb Simpson. Jason Sobel with ESPN posted this the night before the tournament “People who know things (i.e. me) might be pulling Webb Simpson from their lineups. Just sayin’…” Unfortunately, there was no further context so most ignored it. It turns out that Simpson injured his back lifting his son out of the hotel pool and apparently it bothered him as he missed the cut. All of the other selections made the cut including three in the Top 22 and two in the Top 13. Jason Bohn appeared ready to challenge for the victory, but posted a disappointing 71 on Sunday to fall out of contention.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
John Deere Classic
This week’s tournament takes place at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. It is best-known for several holes that feature significant elevation changes. It will play as a Par 70 and measures out to 7,268 yards. This course has yielded some very low scores in the past, including a 59 in 2010. This year’s field is highlighted by the best player in golf right now (Jordan Spieth), Zach Johnson, and… Kevin Kisner? But seriously, the average golf fan will notice that many of the world’s best players will be taking the week off to prep for the British Open, but there are still plenty of excellent players participating. Last year, Brian Harman registered his first victory on tour in route to shooting a 262 (-22 under!). Birdies and eagles will be flying around the course, so if you can’t score low, you’ll be left behind.
Relevant Stats:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Greens in Regulation
Strokes Gained: Putting
Birdie Average
Par Breakers
Zach Johnson
Odds to win: 8-1
DraftKings: $10,400
Victiv: $10,000
I’m not going to argue with you if you build your lineups around Jordan Spieth, but I’ll be taking the discount and starting mine with Zach Johnson. Johnson is arguably the second most talented player in this tournament and it also lines up well to his strengths. Johnson ranks 16th in SG:T2G, 25th in Birdie Average, and 31st in Par Breakers. His only huge knock as a player is his limited distance off the tee (168th in total distance), but that shouldn’t be an issue at this course. His history at this course is almost as impressive as Stricker’s (as you’ll see below) and he also serves on the board of directors! He shot a -21 here last year (good for 2nd), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention for a win on Sunday.
Also Consider: Ryan Moore, Kevin Kisner
Steve Stricker
Odds to win: 30-1
DraftKings: $9,300
Victiv: $7,600
No one owns an event like Steve Stricker owns the John Deere Classic. Eventually, they might call this tournament the Steve Stricker Classic, but they’ll have to wait to rename it until Stricker retires. He won this event three straight times from 2009 to 2011, which is the last time anyone has accomplished that feat. In addition to Stricker’s course history, Stricker is playing some decent golf. Before his missed cut at the Greenbrier Classic (shot -1 and missed cut by one stroke), he had three straight Top 40 finishes. On Victiv, just use Stricker as a free space and move on. For DK, Stricker will likely be the highest owned player so there is value to fading him in GPPs, but he’ll still be a staple in my cash lineups.
Also Consider: Harris English, Brian Harman
Robert Streb
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $9,000
Victiv: $8,300
I alluded to Streb’s brilliance with the wedge in my opener, and he has clearly won me over as his biggest fan. I’m not just blinded by his wedge birdies, but there is plenty of substance to Streb’s game as well. He ranks 15th in Greens in Regulation (GIR), which should put him in a position for plenty of birdie attempts (most likely to be taken with a putter). Speaking of the putter, Streb ranks 32nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. In his last six tournaments, he has finished 2nd, 42nd, 18th, 19th, 4th, and 30th. This could be the week that he finally gets his first win of the season.
Also Consider: Pat Perez, David Hearn
Tony Finau
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $8,500
Victiv: $7,600
Unlike most of the player’s featured here, Finau’s game might not be completely tailored to fit a course like this, but I still love him this week. Why? He’s a good player at an even better price. I’m not sure why the sites felt the need to reduce his price, but we can benefit from it. Finau is known for his distance (7th in Driving Distance), but Finau isn’t a one-trick pony. He ranks 33rd in SG:T2G, 14th in Birdie Average, and 14th in Par Breakers. Finau has shown the ability to get hot and start rolling in some birdies. If he gets going this weekend, watch out. Fun fact that has zero fantasy relevance: Finau’s average club head speed is 123.9 mph this year, good for first on tour.
Also Consider: Shawn Stefani, Jerry Kelly
Jason Bohn
Odds to win: 45-1
DraftKings: $8,400
Victiv: $7,400
Here is my excerpt from last week “I was surprised to find that my research led me to Bohn, but the numbers never lie.” My numbers have led me here again, even with Bohn’s increased price. Bohn ranks in the top 50 in: Strokes Gained: Putting (49) GIR (31), Birdie Average (22), and Par Breakers (25). He is third on tour in driving accuracy, which should set him up for some favorable approach shots. Speaking of approach shots… Bohn is in the Top 10 in approaches from 50-125 yards, which should help him throw. Bohn won’t be as under the radar this week, but is a solid bet to make the cut and contend for a Top 10 finish this week.
Also consider: Scott Brown, Kevin Chappell
Brendon de Jonge
Odds to win: 85-1
DraftKings: $7,500
Victiv: $7,200
I almost wrote up de Jonge last week, but ended up going with Stefani for a similar price. This week, Stefani’s price has shot up significantly, while de Jonge’s is still a reasonable $7,500. de Jonge is an accurate driver (25th in Driving Accuracy) and also can pour in the birdies (34th in Birdie Average) or better (44th in Par Breakers). de Jonge’s form has been sporadic this year, but he’s also posted four Top 25 finishes. He has made the cut in all of his appearances here, including a pair of T10 finishes. He’s not a lock to make the cut this year (making him somewhat risky for cash games), but de Jonge could threaten for another Top 25 finish, enough to pay off his modest price tag.
Also Consider: Danny Lee, Chad Campbell
Will Wilcox
Odds to win: 120-1
DraftKings: $6,400
Victiv: $6,100
Wilcox was the talk of the DFS world for a brief stretch in May and June, but has since burned his followers with two missed cuts. He hasn’t played terribly (shot par or under at both tournaments), but his price has plummeted to a budget price on all major sites. Before his consecutive missed cuts, his finishes were as follows: 12th, 22nd, MC, 33rd, 6th, 18th, and 14th. That’s some remarkable consistency for someone priced so low. My favorite statistic going for Wilcox is his ability to consistently hit greens as evidenced by his 13th ranked Greens in Regulation (GIR). This should put him in a good position for plenty of birdie and eagle attempts. We have to learn to forgive and forget, and the healing begins this week.
Also Consider: Will Mackenzie, Hudson Swafford