PGA DFS: Open Championship Top Targets
After one round of play, it looked like Jordan Spieth might mail it in early in an attempt to get ready for this weekend’s major.
John Deere Classic Recap
People had already criticized him for playing in this event instead of heading to St. Andrews to get some extra practice on the course. Spieth followed up his opening round 71 with a 64 to comfortably make the cut. He then proceeded to shoot a blistering 61 on Thursday, a personal best for him on the PGA Tour. He finished out the tournament by beating Tom Gillis in a playoff (poor Tom Gillis). After shooting par his opening round, Spieth was -20 under (what?!) in the next three. He is the best golfer in the world and he proved it to everyone last weekehttp://www.weather.com/nd.
Overall, last week’s picks were really good, but they were close to being excellent. Tony Finau was the heartbreaker as he missed the cut by one stroke. I outlined in the description that I felt Brendon de Jonge wasn’t a safe cash game play due his to potential to miss the cut, and that turned out to be true (by two strokes). Everyone else finished in the Top 35, including four Top 14 finishes! We didn’t nail the winner (darn you Zach Johnson for not finding a birdie in the final seven holes), but we had almost everything else. We’ll try to keep the momentum rolling into the Open Championship.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
Millionaire Maker
Most of you are already aware, but in case you have been living under a rock, DraftKings will be having yet another Millionaire Maker tournament this week. The overall prize pool has now increased to $3 million, making the largest DFS golf tournament ever. The picks in this article aren’t necessarily specifically tailored towards the Milly Maker tournament, but I will attempt to point out instances where a certain player might be a better or worse fit or fade for the tournament. Hopefully someone on RG can take down first prize and become an overnight millionaire!
The Open Championship
This week, we travel to the birthplace of golf for a visit to the Old Course at St. Andrews. It will play as a Par 71 and measures out to 7,305 yards. The course will consist of 14 par 4s, two par 5s, and two two par 3s. One of the most unique features of this course is that it utilizes double-greens on several holes, which is where two holes will share the same green. As this is a major, all of the game’s best players will be in attendance, except for recently injured Rory McIlroy. Jordan Spieth is regarded as the unanimous favorite, although eight players have odds better than 20-1 to win the tournament.
Relevant Stats:
Driving Distance
3-Putt Avoidance
All-Around Ranking
Past course experience / Links courses
It’s been a while since I have featured Driving Distance as a relevant stat to watch for because most of the recent courses have been short courses built for very low scores. This week will shift the focus back towards some of the long bombers. The course is already fairly long, but should play even longer due to the soft fairways and greens. The next key stat is 3-Putt Avoidance. I mentioned the seven “double-greens” in the introduction, and these are massive. Five of these double-greens contain 25,000+ square feet of real estate. To put that into perspective, the average green square footage at Pebble Beach is around 3,500 square feet. This will place a huge emphasis on lag putting and three-putt avoidance. It seems like a bit of a cop-out to list the Overall Ranking as a relevant stat, but I truly think that the best overall golfers (not just great in a few categories) will succeed. Last, I think it’s important that players know how to navigate a links style course. Past success at this course or ones similar to it will be something I focus on.
Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter so you can hound me if these don’t work out. Now, on to the picks!
Dustin Johnson
Odds to win: 12-1
DraftKings: $11,400
Victiv: $11,500
Here is my excerpt from last week: “I’m not going to argue with you if you build your lineups around Jordan Spieth, but I’ll be taking the discount and starting mine with Zach Johnson.” I’m going to stick with my logic in “mini-fading” Spieth, but for a slightly different reason. Last week, he was by far the most expensive player, but this week, he is only $600 more than Dustin Johnson. This would seem to make Spieth an obvious play, but that means his ownership percentage will be through the roof, especially as newcomers will be flocking to the Millionaire Maker tournament. I will have some Spieth in my lineups, but Dustin Johnson makes for an excellent contrarian play. Most won’t pay up for him, which should lead to lower ownership numbers. He is likely the the second most talented player in this tournament and it also lines up well to his strengths. Johnson ranks first in Driving Distance, which should give him a massive advantage of 16 of the 18 holes (excluding the two par 3s). He is 15th in All-Around Ranking and second in Putting Average. He is also in excellent form coming into this weekend. He has four Top 15 finishes in his last five appearances. He finished tied for 14th at the 2010 Open Championship that was also at St. Andrews, so he has some course history going for him as well. Fading Spieth is tough, but taking a guy as talented as Johnson might be worth the risk.
Also Consider: Jordan Spieth. I don’t love anyone else over $10,000 on DK.
Rickie Fowler
Odds to win: 14-1
DraftKings: $9,700
Victiv: $10,700
I tried to ignore all of the signs pointing me to Rickie Fowler this week because he has personally burned me in the past. When I stripped away all of the bias, I realized that he makes an excellent play this week. His is in excellent form and coming off a victory last weekend at the Scottish Open. Fowler is also known as an excellent links golfers due to the creativity it requires. He ranks in the Top 35 in All-Around Ranking and 3-Putt Avoidance. Like Johnson above, he finished 14th here in 2010, but also has a track record in recent Open Championships, finishing in the Top 5 in two of the last four US Opens. Fowler is one of the most underpriced players this week, at least according to Vegas odds. He is priced in the same price range as Mickelson (30-1), Day (35-1), Garcia (35-1), and Watson (40-1), but his Vegas odds are much better at 14-1. Because of this, I expect him to be one of the more highly owned players this week in large tournaments. Because of this, there is merit to fading him on ownership percentage alone.
Also Consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds to win: 40-1
DraftKings: $8,500
Victiv: $9,400
Not sure what happened in the pricing algorithm that landed Hideki Matsuyama at $8,500 on DraftKings, but it sure seems like he is severely underpriced. He has the same Vegas odds as Bubba Watson and Paul Casey, but is almost $1,000 cheaper. Matsuyama does a lot of things well. Most notably, he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and ninth in Greens in Regulation (GIR). He isn’t known for being a true long bomber, but his driving distance is well-above average and ranks 33rd on the PGA Tour. His All-Around ranking is fifth, trailing only McIlroy, Spieth, Wilcox, and Day. Matsuyama’s biggest weakness as a golfer is his putter. He rates out terrible in both Strokes Gained: Putting and 3-Putt Avoidance. Because of this, I don’t think he’s a huge threat to win the tournament, but I feel confident that he will make the cut and be in contention for a T20 finish. This makes him a great cash play and a decent one for GPPs.
Also Consider: Patrick Reed, Martin Kaymer, Brandt Snedeker
Brooks Koepka
Odds to win: 55-1
DraftKings: $8,200
Victiv: $8,800
Everyone has that player that they love more than they should, and Brooks Koepka is that guy for me. He is one of the longest players on tour off the tee (10th in Driving Distance) and also ranks in the Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting (9th). He is seventh in All-Around ranking, show that he isn’t just a two-trick pony. He finished ninth at this course last year at the Dunhill Links. There are several other enticing options at a similar price point (Matsuyama, Reed, Grace, Lowry, Kuchar, Schwartzel, and Walker), which should keep his ownership in large tournaments to a relatively low level (I’d guess 15%).
Also Consider: Branden Grace, Shane Lowry, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $7,300
Victiv: $8,000
Remember last week when I talked about how Steve Stricker owned the John Deere Classic? Tommy Fleetwood might not have quite the track record at St. Andrews, but it’s pretty close. In his last eight rounds at this course, he has shot 37 under par. For you non-math majors, that’s better than 4.5 strokes under per round! While I don’t expect him to put up such gaudy numbers this weekend, he should be in contention for a Top 20 finish at a bargain bin price. He grew up on a links course and has also played his golf overseas, giving an edge over some of the American players who don’t often play links style courses. His distance is sufficient as he ranks 30th on the European Tour. He is also coming off a Top 10 finish at the Scottish Open, so he is rounding into form coming into this weekend.
Also Consider: Bernd Wiesberger, Kevin Kisner, J.B. Holmes
David Howell
Odds to win: 180-1
DraftKings: $6,400
Victiv: $7,000
Due to the soft pricing instilled for the casual fans this week, I’m not a huge fan of many of the punts. Because there is plenty of value to be had, I don’t think you need to go crazy with players below $7K. That being said, many will start their lineups with either Spieth or Johnson, which could facilitate the need to go cheap. I stumbled onto David Howell as a potential punt for a few reasons. First, he plays on the European Tour and has experience on links courses. Second, he has two Top 10 finishes in the last three weeks. Third, he is listed as an astounding +750 to finish in the Top 25. That’s the same odds offered for Keegan Bradley and better odds than Jason Dufner, Hunter Mahan, Graham Delaet, Harris English, Ryan Moore, and other more well-known golfers. I can’t guarantee he’ll make the cut, but he makes for a viable, low-owned punt that could separate you from the masses.
Also Consider: Marc Warren, Danny Lee, Graham DeLaet, Andy Sullivan, Kevin Na, Robert Streb