PGA DFS Core Plays: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Much like Alexander, I had a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. Although, for me, it was an entire week of terrible, horrible, no good, very bad-ness. My DFS lineups didn’t stand much of a chance after the cut, and I had two top-40 parlays that were looking solid heading into Sunday. Justin Rose ruined one of the parlays with a mediocre round on Sunday, and Vincent Norrman absolutely fell apart on his final 9 holes to ruin the other. The only good news is that I received several messages from RotoGrinders members about having good weeks. If I can’t win, I’m happy that the members here at RotoGrinders can win.
We now turn our attention to the first signature event of the season. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am used to be a full-field event that had a 3-course rotation, but that is no longer the case. While I prefer events that have a cut, I’m willing to trade the cut for an extra round at Pebble Beach and one fewer round with the amateurs teeing it up. This is now a 2-course rotation event, as Monterey Peninsula is no longer in the mix. Golfers will play Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach the first two days, and then Pebble will host the final two rounds. Ultimately, we have a stronger field than usual, more rounds with ShotTracker, and fewer rounds with celebrities. It feels like a win for everyone.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
While Spyglass Hill will be played for one of the four rounds, we will focus our attention on Pebble Beach. It is a Par 72 that measures less than 7,000 yards. This is one of the shortest par-adjusted courses on the PGA TOUR. Many of the holes have forced layups off the tee, which often leads to golfers playing their approach shots from similar spots. The average driving distance at this event over the years is less than 280 yards, which is the lowest for any course on the PGA TOUR. This is one of the few courses that really negates the driver as a big weapon. Golfers will need to be accurate off the tee, but most will club down on the holes, so looking at driving accuracy isn’t all that useful.
Pebble Beach also has the smallest greens on TOUR, averaging 3,500 square feet. These are extremely small greens, which is why approach play is so important. Even the best iron players are going to miss greens, which brings scrambling into play. It’s no surprise to see the likes of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Phil Mickelson play well here over the years. They are all good wedge players with exceptional short games. The greens at Pebble Beach feature tricky poa annua grass, which will cause even the best of putters to miss some short ones this week. I’m not sure if tricky greens help or hurt good putters, but I do know that I want my golfers to have experience putting on poa annua.
One of the biggest stories of the week is the weather. It’s going to rain Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and potentially Saturday as well. We could see lift, clean, and place in action this week, which would place an even bigger emphasis on hitting the fairway. On Sunday, it’s an absolute nightmare. It’s supposed to rain with 60+ mph wind gusts. Unless something drastically changes in the forecast, they will have to move the finish to Monday or try to get 36 holes in on Saturday.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Field Size:
- 80 golfers
Cut Rule:
- No cut this week
Weather Forecasts
Pebble Beach Golf Links
- Location: Pebble Beach, California
- Will host 3 rounds
- Par 72 — 6,972 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (20th), 2022 (35th), 2021 (29th), 2020 (8th), 2019 (12th)
- Fairway width in landing areas: 43 yards
- Green size: 3,500 square feet
- Grass type on greens: poa annua
Spyglass Hill Golf Course
- Location: Pebble Beach, California
- Will host 1 round
- Par 72 — 7,041 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (8th), 2022 (16th), 2021 (11th), 2020 (5th), 2019 (20th)
- Green size: 5,000 square feet
- Grass type on greens: poa annua
Event Notes
- First signature event of the season
- Only a 2-course rotation this time around — Pebble and Spyglass
- It’s a win for us, as we lose a round at Monterey and get an extra at Pebble
- No-cut format, so all golfers will play 72 holes
- Amateurs will only play the first two days
- Both courses are short Par 72s with poa annua greens
- Both courses have small greens (especially Pebble)
- Keeping it in the fairway is more important than driving distance
- This week is more about approach play and scrambling
What to Look For
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Emphasis on poa)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Total Driving / Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Experience in California
Core Plays
Xander Schauffele
DraftKings — $10,000 / pOWN: 18.1%
FanDuel — $11,600 / pOWN: 24.2%
Total Driving — 26
SG: APP — 2
Bogey Avoidance — 2
SG: ATG — 29
SG: Putting (Poa) — 6
Stat Rank — 1
Noto Rating — 91.4
I have no issue with any of the expensive golfers this week, but on a per-dollar basis, Schauffele is my favorite. He has come out of the gates firing this year, posting top-10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open, The American Express, and The Sentry. He has gained nearly 20 strokes tee to green in those three starts and is now one of the favorites heading into the first signature event of the season. He’s not a bad driver of the ball, but his strengths are really on approach, around the green, and putting. He’s from San Diego, so he should feel right at home on these bumpy poa annua greens. He also has an excellent track record in no-cut events.
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