PGA DFS Core Plays: The Masters
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The Masters
It’s Masters week. This is everyone’s favorite event of the year and it’s so tempting to go beyond our means when it comes to betting and DFS. My advice is to play more than usual (if you so choose), but to no over-extend yourself to the point where it becomes more stressful than fun. It’s easier said than done though, as the golf fan in me wants to make 150 DFS lineups, make 10 outright bets, throw together a bunch of placement parlays, and then hit the showdown lobby. I’ve often found that my best weeks have come when I have showed restraint with the old bankroll. Perhaps there is something to that.
Now, let’s talk about the greatest golf tournament on the planet. The Masters will have 88 golfers in the field this year and the top 50 and ties will move on to play the weekend. I have counted a total of 15 amateurs and older golfers in the field, who are highly unlikely to find themselves in contention. Let’s say 55 golfers end up making the cut. A major portion of the playable field is going to end up making the cut. This means two things in my eyes — more will be willing to employ the stars and scrubs type of roster construction and that golfers that outscore their placement position will be more valuable than most events.
Now, let’s get to the course. We all know and love Augusta National. We have seen minor changes to the course over the years, including the lengthening of the 15th hole and the alteration of the 11th hole in 2022. This year, the club has lengthened the 13th hole and many golfers have stated early in the week that they will likely lay up on their second shot rather than go for the green. The course is a Par 72 that now measures 7,545 yards. There are plenty of storylines heading into the week (Tiger Woods is back, the LIV golfers are in the field, Rory McIlroy going for the career grand slam, etc), but one of the biggest is the weather. We are expecting wind, rain, and potentially cold temperatures.
Augusta National has long been known as a second-shot golf course. It’s fairly generous off the tee and the greens are contoured, which makes iron play extremely important. The greens are large, but the slopes create very small targets when it comes to getting the ball close to the hole. The greens are surrounded run-off areas that repel errant approach shots. Ideally, we want to look for golfers that are very good on approach and very good around the green. Even the best ball strikers will miss greens and a tidy short game will go a long way in helping golfers save par.
The fairways here are wide and the rough here is essentially non-existent. The rough is similar to the intermediate cut on most golf courses. If golfers stray too far off the tee, they will be playing from the pine straw. The only real trouble golfers can get in off the tee is having tree trouble. For all of these reasons, distance is much preferred over accuracy. The course mows the fairways toward the tee boxes in order to limit run out on drives and there is rain in the forecast. This combination could lead to the course playing a lot longer than it says on the scorecard (which is already long).
Let’s see, what else is there that we need to talk about. The greens are pure bentgrass and will be lightning fast (13-14 on the stimpmeter depending on the weather). Course history is more important here than any other course on the PGA Tour (this is statistically proven). This doesn’t mean first-timers can’t play well here, but for the most part, we want to be looking for the norm and not the outliers. In terms of what I’m looking for, I want strong tee to green golfers that have experience at Augusta National. I’m willing to take my chances with bad putters if needed.
I love you all, now let’s have ourselves great week.
Model Video & Download Link for the The Masters
Field Size:
- 88 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 50 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
Golf Course
- Augusta National Golf Club
- Par 72 that measures 7,545 yards
Course Notes
- Lengthened 15th hole last year and 13th hole this year
- Difficulty the last 5 years: 3rd, 7th, 16th, 7th, and 2nd
- Generous fairways and the rough is essentially just the first cut
- Grass is mowed toward the tee boxes to limit roll out
- Course could play closer to 7,800 yards, especially if it rains
- Distance is certainly preferred over accuracy off the tee
- Lot of uneven lies on approach shots into large greens
- Greens are extremely contoured, which creates small targets
- Run-off areas near the green repel errant approach shots
- Big emphasis on iron play and the ability to scramble
- Lightning fast bentgrass greens (usually 13-14 on stimpmeter)
- Many bad putters have played well here over the years
- Golfers need to take advantage of the four par fives
- Course history is more important here than any other course
What to Look For
- Experience at Augusta National
- Tee to green
- Approach play
- Around the green play
- Good driving (distance is a premium)
- Course management
Core Plays
Tony Finau
DK: $8,900 — FD: $10,100
SG: OTT — 17
SG: APP — 4
SG: ATG — 27
SG: Putting — 17
Bogey Avoidance — 15
Noto’s Rating — 84.5
You can certainly make a strong case to start with one of the big three and I plan to do that in many lineups, but my core plays this week are golfers that fit all types of builds. Finau can easily be the second, third, or even fourth golfer in your lineups this week. He has the distance needed to contend here, he has been underrated around the greens throughout his career, and what we have seen from his iron play and putting has been incredible. He has gained at least 3.1 strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts and has gained at least at least 2.2 strokes putting in eight of his last 12 starts. He’s played well at the majors and is a perfect 5-for-5 at Augusta with three top 10 finishes.
Jason Day
DK: $8,700 — FD: $10,700
SG: OTT — 31
SG: APP — 38
SG: ATG — 2
SG: Putting — 4
Bogey Avoidance — 7
Noto’s Rating — 74.5
I’ve been on Day for six months now and he has yet to disappoint, so there’s no way I’m getting off this train. Including the match play, he has now finished T21 or better in 12 of his last 13 starts. During that stretch, he’s been the best on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green and top five in strokes gained putting. He has plenty of distance off the tee and more often than not, he gains strokes with his irons. Everything is clicking for Day right now and while he has yet to truly contend in an event during this great stretch of golf, we don’t need him to win to pay off this price point (although a win would certainly be fine with me). He’s made eight of his last 10 cuts at the Masters with three top five finishes.
Si Woo Kim
DK: $7,400 — FD: $8,800
SG: OTT — 20
SG: APP — 36
SG: ATG — 10
SG: Putting — 20
Bogey Avoidance — 34
Noto’s Rating — 62.6
Si Woo… shaking that… sorry, let’s get back on track. Kim is one of my favorite plays of the week. I love Corey Conners as much as everyone else, but will gladly take Kim at half the ownership, especially in small-field contests. He has gone from being one of the most volatile players on tour to being one of the most consistent players on tour. In his last 17 events on the PGA Tour, he has only missed the cut one time. During that stretch, he has gained strokes in all four facets of his game. He now returns to a place where he has made five straight cuts and where he has three top 25 finishes in his career.
Conviction Plays
Justin Thomas
DK: $9,300 — FD: $11,200
SG: OTT — 14
SG: APP — 23
SG: ATG — 14
SG: Putting — 39
Bogey Avoidance — 49
Noto’s Rating — 83.4
JT is my pick to win this week and many will laugh because he’s been so bad with the putter recently, but how many bad putters have we seen play well at the Masters the last few years? Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, and Will Zalatoris all come to mind. And at the very least, we know JT has the ability to get hot with the flatstick. He was one of four golfers to fit all 11 of the Masters betting trends that I put together and he’s finished in the top eight at Augusta in two of the last three years. He’s elite tee to green and he should be well rested after sitting out the WGC Match Play. He also has the weather angle in his corner, as he’s one of the best shot makers on the PGA Tour. That could really come in handy in the wind and rain expected this week.
Xander Schauffele
DK: $9,000 — FD: $10,800
SG: OTT — 25
SG: APP — 17
SG: ATG — 25
SG: Putting — 8
Bogey Avoidance — 9
Noto’s Rating — 88.0
The only knock that I can find on Schauffele is that he doesn’t seem to love bad conditions. However, a bad weather forecast isn’t enough to make me fade one of my favorite plays of the week. Over the last five years, no player has gained more strokes per round in the majors than Schauffele, which is a very impressive feat for a golfer that has never won a major. He’s solid off the tee, he’s good on approach, he’s good around the greens, and he can putt with the best of them. The complete skill set is likely what allows him to play well at so many different venues. He’s contended at the Masters twice in his career with finishes of second and third.
Viktor Hovland
DK: $8,500 — FD: $9,800
SG: OTT — 18
SG: APP — 14
SG: ATG — 68
SG: Putting — 32
Bogey Avoidance — 52
Noto’s Rating — 79.0
The clip that is making its way around the PGA DFS community is the one where Hovland is talking about improvements made to his short game. While I’m not sure we can believe him, he sounds very confident and sometimes, that’s half the battle when it comes to golf. If he can commit to his shots around the green, it will hopefully help him improve. All we really need is for him to not lose strokes around the green and we should like his chances to finish in the top 10. He’s posted three straight top 35s here and his recent ball striking is very impressive. In his last four events, he has gained 9.3, 10.0, 6.0, and 5.2 strokes ball striking.
Will Zalatoris
DK: $8,200 — FD: $10,000
SG: OTT — 2
SG: APP — 3
SG: ATG — 62
SG: Putting — 30
Bogey Avoidance — 14
Noto’s Rating — 81.7
The second anyone hears or sees the name Zalatoris, their brain immediately brings up the highlight of Zalatoris pump-faking his putting stroke and missing a two-foot putt. It’s been very ugly over the last few events, but that has led to nobody wanting to play him at the Masters, even though he has finished second and sixth here in his two appearances. I’m willing to take the risk on him finding something on the greens given how low his ownership is going to be this week. He’s elite off the tee and he’s elite on approach. The around the green game hasn’t been great this season, but he seems to have Augusta National figured out.
Shane Lowry
DK: $7,900 — FD: $9,700
SG: OTT — 26
SG: APP — 5
SG: ATG — 37
SG: Putting — 53
Bogey Avoidance — 13
Noto’s Rating — 69.8
I wasn’t expecting to write Lowry up this week, but he checks almost all of the boxes for me. He’s better off the tee than most realize, he’s a top 10 iron player in the field, and he has a tidy short game. The putter has been ice cold, but again, we’ve seen so many bad putters play well at Augusta National over the years. If you like course history, he’s posted three straight top 25s here including a third place finish last year. He is from Ireland, so he doesn’t mind a little wind and rain and he proved that when he won the Open a few years ago.
Talor Gooch
DK: $6,800 — FD: $7,700
SG: OTT — 50
SG: APP — 22
SG: ATG — 3
SG: Putting — 68
Bogey Avoidance — 8
Noto’s Rating — 52.6
Gooch is the one of four LIV golfers that I will be investing in this week (Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Mito Pereira are the other three). He’s not getting a lot of respect in the outright market, but that doesn’t mean he can’t pay off his incredibly cheap salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has quietly been playing well on the LIV Tour, posting five straight top 20 finishes. When he was on the PGA Tour, he was very good tee to green and he was one of the best at avoiding bogeys. In his debut at Augusta last season, he finished T14.
Danny Willett
DK: $6,600 — FD: $8,100
SG: OTT — 59
SG: APP — 57
SG: ATG — 5
SG: Putting — 23
Bogey Avoidance — 28
Noto’s Rating — 43.3
I would argue that this is the best form Willett has been in entering the Masters since the year that he won the green jacket. Now, he was a top 40 player in the world back then, but I’m simply pointing out that he’s been much better this year than he has been the last few years. He’s made five straight cuts and has four straight top 35 finishes. During that stretch, he’s gained consistently off the tee and on approach. Even when he was in bad form last year, he showed up here and finished T12.
PGA Betting Card
To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.
Last week: -8.7 units
Season total: -14.4 units
This week: 17 units in play
The Masters
Outright
- Justin Thomas +2200 (Caesars)
- Jason Day +2800 (FanDuel)
- Shane Lowry +6500 (0.5 units FanDuel)
- Si Woo Kim +12000 (0.5 units FanDuel)
Winner Without McIlroy and Scheffler
- Tony Finau +1800 (DraftKings)
- Xander Schauffele +1800 (DraftKings)
Top 10
- Justin Thomas +200 (Caesars)
- Xander Schauffele +210 (FanDuel)
Top 20
- Jason Day -110 (BetRivers)
- Viktor Hovland +130 (FanDuel)
- Shane Lowry +200 (FanDuel)
- Si Woo Kim +260 (FanDuel)
Top 40 Parlay
- Viktor Hovland + Corey Conners + Shane Lowry + Tommy Fleetwood + Si Woo Kim + Danny Willett +1234 (FanDuel)
To Make the Cut Parlay
- Tiger Woods + Min Woo Lee + Ryan Fox +222 (FanDuel)
Top Amateur
- Gordon Sargent +200 (PointsBet)
First Round Leader
- Jordan Spieth +2500 (0.5 units DraftKings)
- Jason Day +3500 (0.5 units DraftKings)
- Corey Conners +4000 (0.5 units DraftKings)
- Justin Rose +5000 (0.5 units BetMGM)
- Shane Lowry +5500 (0.5 units BetRivers)
- Si Woo Kim +6600 (0.5 units BetRivers)
Note: All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.
Image Credit: Getty Images
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