PGA DFS Core Plays: PGA Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
PGA Championship
We hit another winner at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week, which means we have a chance to go back-to-back-to back at the PGA Championship. We don’t need to spend too much time on the TPC Bunny Ranch recap, but huge congratulations are in order for Jason Day. He got back in the winner’s circle for the first time since 2018. It’s sort of been the year of the redemption story — Day last week, Justin Rose at Pebble Beach, and hopefully Rickie Fowler sometime soon. Maybe this week, you never know.
The second major of the year should be a good one. The last time we saw Oak Hill Country Club was in 2013 where Jason Dufner was able to capture his first and only major. Since then, the course has had some major renovations. The course has been lengthened by nearly 400 yards and hundreds of trees were removed from the property. We shouldn’t be looking at 10-year old course history anyway, but know that the course this week will play nothing like it did in 2013. The scorecard now shows a Par 70 that measures 7,394 yards. Par-adjusted, this is a very long golf course.
Typically on the PGA Tour, there is a correlation between course length, the width of the fairways, and the size of the greens. That’s not the case at Oak Hill. The course is extremely long, yet the fairways are very narrow (27-28 yards wide) and the greens are very small (4,500 square feet). To put that into perspective, the average PGA Tour course has fairways that are around 32 yards wide and greens that are around 6,800 square feet on average. To sum it up quickly, this is a long course that features narrow fairways and small greens. This alone should provide a tough test for this field.
While the length of the course is notable, a lot of it comes from the two par fives (615 and 623 yards) and two of the par threes (230 yards and 245 yards). We typically see most of the field be able to reach par fives in two, but that won’t be the case this week. In fact, these par fives are going to play as three-shot holes for a large portion of the field. There is one short par four (320 yards), but the green is heavily guarded by bunkers. It will be interesting to see how many end up trying to drive the green and how many end up laying up on the hole.
Given the fact that the fairways will be tough to hit and that the greens will be tough to hit, scrambling is going to play a major role in this event. The greens are elevated, they are defended by bunkers, and they feature run-off areas. Even without all of that, the size of the greens themselves make them difficult to hit in regulation. Even the best ball strikers are going to miss greens time and time again this week. Being able to scramble and avoid bogeys will be a huge advantage on this course.
One of the big stories with the course is how much of a challenge the bunkers are going to provide the golfers. The fairway bunkers have steep lips and could provide essentially a half-stroke penalty. The greenside bunkers also have steep lips and it sounds like most errant approach shots roll all the way down to the flat part of the bunkers. This forces golfers to get the ball up quickly and try to stop it quickly on these elevated greens.
Ultimately, golfers that are solid all-around have the best chance this week. Ideally, we want to target golfers that are long and straight off the tee, that are good on approach, that are good around the green, and that can make putts under pressure. Essentially, we are looking for the perfect golfer.
Model Video & Download Link for the PGA Championship
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
- Roth’s DFS Forecast — link coming soon!
- Windfinder
- Weather Channel
Golf Course
- Oak Hill Country Club
- Location: Rochester, New York
- Designer: Donald Ross
- Par 70 — 7,394 yards
- Fairway width: 27-28 yards on average
- Green type and speed: bentgrass, 12-13 on the stimp
- Green size: 4,500 square feet on average
Course Notes
- Course has hosted many major championships, but huge renovations since the last one in 2013. Added nearly 400 yards to the scorecard and removed hundreds of trees.
- Fairways are extremely narrow for the length of the course
- Greens are extremely small and will be tough to hit
- Driver-heavy course, but finding fairways will be difficult
- Bunkers could provide problems, especially the fairways bunkers
- Weather will be cool and we could have some rain
- Personally expecting the winning score in the single digits
What to Look For
- Major experience (most notably PGA Championship & US Open)
- Strokes gained approach (emphasis on long irons)
- Strokes gained off the tee (emphasis on distance)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes gained around the green
- Strokes gained putting (with a lean to bentgrass splits)
- Solid all-around
Core Plays
Xander Schauffele
DK: $9,900 — FD: $11,100
SG: OTT — 63
Driving Distance — 56
SG: APP — 3
Bogey Avoidance — 6
SG: Putting — 27
Noto’s Rating — 94.6
