PGA DFS Core Plays: RBC Canadian Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open. This event changes venues each year and hasn’t been held at the Hamilton Golf & Country Club since 2019. The course has undergone some major renovations since then — it has been lengthened by over 100 yards, the greens were redone, the bunkers were rebuilt, and trees were removed from the property. Even if the course was the same, it’s hard to trust course history with only two data points (2019, 2012) in the last 15 years.
The course is a Par 70 that now measures 7,084 yards. The fairways are narrow (30 yards wide), and we are expecting to have 4” thick rough. Many players have said this is a more positional course off the tee. With the narrow fairways, the number of short holes, and the thick rough, I don’t expect driving distance to be a big advantage. My favorite off-the-tee metrics to target are total driving or strokes gained off the tee.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the RBC Canadian Open
Water is in play on 11 of the holes, but we can still expect some low scores this week. The forecast calls for very little wind over the course of the four days, and the last two winning scores here were -22 and -19. The greens here are average in size (6,000 square feet) and feature bentgrass. The field only hit 62% of greens in regulation here in 2019. If that continues this time around, it will place a bigger emphasis on approach play and around-the-green play.
This is one of those weeks where I’m focusing less on course fit and more on recent form.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the RBC Canadian Open
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
- Location: Ontario, Canada
- Par 70 — 7,084 yards
- Difficulty: 2019 (21st), 2012 (32nd)
- Recent winners (at this course): Rory McIlroy, Scott Piercy
- Number of holes with water hazards: 11
- Green type: bentgrass
- Green size: 6,000 square feet
- 2019 tournament averages:
- - Fairway width: 30 yards
- - Driving accuracy: 55%
- - Driving distance: 280 yards
- - Greens in regulation: 62%
- 2019 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-100 yards: 11%
- - 100-125 yards: 17%
- - 125-150 yards: 15%
- - 150-175 yards: 17%
- - 175-200 yards: 14%
- - 200+ yards: 26%
Event and Course Notes
- Canadian Open rotates venues; first time back at Hamilton since 2019
- At 7,084 yards, this is a short course by TOUR standards but only two Par 5s
- The course has had a renovation since the last time we’ve seen it
- No point in looking at course history with the changes and the lack of events
- Expecting 4” thick rough, which should place an emphasis on accuracy over distance
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Birdie or better %
- Total driving
- Strokes gained putting (emphasis on bentgrass)
Core Plays
Alex Noren
DraftKings: $9,900 / pOWN%: 12%
FanDuel: $10,800 / pOWN%: 17%
Driving Distance: 98
Strokes Gained Approach: 27
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 3
Strokes Gained Putting: 8
Birdie or Better %: 78
Bogey Avoidance: 3
Rory McIlroy is a great play in a vacuum, but he’s extremely expensive and approaching 40% projected ownership. In single-entry and small-field tournaments, I prefer starting with Noren. He has made 17 straight cuts on the PGA TOUR and has posted 8 straight top-30 finishes. If you look at the underlying statistics, he has been consistently gaining off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting. He is driving the ball much better this year and has really improved his accuracy, which should help with these narrow fairways. He’s one of the best in the field when it comes to the short game and avoiding bogeys.
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