PGA DFS Core Plays: The Masters
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Hello, friends. It’s Masters week!
I’m not going to lie- this event has snuck up on me. There’s usually a big build up to the year’s first (and best) major, but we’ve had a lackluster start to the PGA TOUR season. Or perhaps the older we get, the faster time seems to fly by. It’s hard to believe that it’s already April, especially since it’s still snowing here in Utah. There are 89 golfers set to tee it up at Augusta National Golf Club this week. If you aren’t familiar with the cut rules, the top 50 and ties will move on to play the weekend. While we don’t have as many seniors in the field this week, there are still 8-10 golfers who have very little chance of making the cut. Essentially, at least 65% of the rosterable player pool should make the cut this week.
Everyone knows the ins and outs of Augusta National, but I will still give a lengthy preview of the course. This perfectly manicured beauty is a Par 72 that now measures 7,555 yards (a new tee box on number two has lengthened it slightly). The grounds crew purposely mows the grass in the direction of the tee boxes, which helps minimize rollout on drives. Some estimate that this course actually plays closer to 7,800 yards. It’s easy to see why bombers have a big advantage on this course. Not only is the course long, but it features wide fairways (52 yards on average) and no rough to speak of. There’s the fairway, there’s the first cut, and then there’s pine straw. When everyone is hitting fairways (74% in 2023), it’s naturally better to be closer to the hole on approach shots.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Masters
The greens at Augusta National are average in size (6,400 square feet) and are lightning fast (14+ on the stimpmeter). They feature plenty of contours and are surrounded by run-off areas. While distance off the tee is an advantage, golfers need to be precise with their iron play in order to give themselves birdie looks (especially on the par threes and par fours). With so many slopes by the greens, golfers will need to have a tidy short game in order to avoid bogeys. Elevation changes also come into play here, as there are very few flat lies on the property. This is why many consider the Plantation Course at Kapalua a good comp course. If there is one statistic that might not be as important as others, it’s putting. We’ve seen a number of bad putters contend and even win the Masters.
Course history is more predictive here than at any other course on the PGA TOUR. The first-timer narrative is overblown a tad in my opinion (at least for DFS purposes), but experience at Augusta National goes a long way. Golfers need to know when they can be aggressive and when they should be conservative. They need to know the slopes and contours that can help get their approach shots and around the green shots closer to the hole. And with this being a major and on the most iconic course in the world, golfers need to know how to control their nerves. Ultimately, I am looking for long drivers of the ball, good iron players (especially with mid and long irons), and excellent scramblers.
I can’t wait for this week. I plan to enjoy every second of it!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Masters
Field Size:
- 89 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 50 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Augusta National Golf Club
- Location: Augusta, Georgia
- Par 72 — 7,555 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (6th), 2022 (3rd), 2021 (7th)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 5
- Fairway width in landing areas: 51.6 yards
- Green type: bentgrass
- Green size: 6,500 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving distance = 293 yards
- - Driving accuracy = 75%
- - Greens in regulation = 61%
- Ladies and gentlemen, it’s Masters week!
- Fairways here are extremely wide, and there’s essentially no rough (just the first cut)
- They mow the fairways so the grass leans toward tee boxes to minimize roll out
- In actuality, the course might play closer to 7,800 yards
- One of the few weeks where driving distance is a huge advantage
- Greens here are average in size and feature lightning-fast bentgrass (14+ on the stimp)
- There are contours on the green and run-off areas around the green
- Bombing the ball provides an advantage; scoring often comes down to approach play
- Very few wedge shots here- 72% of approach shots in 2023 were from at least 150 yards
- Golfers hit 61% of greens in regulation last year, which emphasizes a golfer’s short game
- Course history matters more here than any other course golfers will play all year
- Golfers have to know when to be patient and when to be aggressive (tough balance)
- The course has been lengthened in recent years, making it even more difficult
- The goal around here is to score on the par fives and hang on for life on the other holes
- The winning score the last 5 editions that were played in April were between -10 and -15
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Masters experience
- Driving distance
- Strokes gained around the green
- Bogey avoidance
- Track record in majors
- Strokes gained putting (emphasis on bentgrass)
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $12,100 / pOWN: 29%
FanDuel: $13,000 / pOWN: 46%
Driving Distance: 17
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 2
Strokes Gained Putting: 61
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
Scheffler has long been the best tee to green golfer on the planet. Since switching to a mallet putter, he has made significant improvements on the greens. In three starts since the switch, he has two wins (Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship) and a 2nd place finish (Houston Open). As if that wasn’t enough, how about the fact that he has finished T12 or better in 30 of his last 34 starts? At this point, it’s hard to envision him not being in the mix on Sunday afternoon. If it’s course history you are looking for, Scheffler won the Masters in 2022 and has finished in the top 20 in all four of his appearances.
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