PGA DFS Core Plays: the Memorial Tournament
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Memorial Tournament. Whom should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
Other than Rickie Fowler, it was a tremendous week for the core plays article. Russell Henley won, Eric Cole finished 2nd, Mac Meissner finished T3, and Alex Smalley finished T3. I turned a nice profit on the main slate, but it obviously could have been a lot better had Fowler made the cut. We are also inching closer and closer to an outright win, as two of last week’s bets (Meissner and Smalley) finished in the top 5.
We have reached a fun part of the PGA TOUR schedule. We have the Memorial Tournament this week, the RBC Canadian Open next week, and the U.S. Open the following week. While this week’s event is another limited-field Signature Event, we actually have a cut, which makes a world of difference. There are 72 golfers set to tee it up. The top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead, will make the cut.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament notes, recent form, and course notes for the Memorial Tournament, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
Muirfield Village Golf Club is one of the toughest courses on the PGA TOUR. It’s a par 72 that measures 7,569 yards. Jack Nicklaus is always making changes to the course to make it as difficult as possible. Over the last 3 years, the winning scores have been -10, -8, and -7. In those editions, most of the field ended up being over par for the week. This is going to play similarly to a major with huge changes on the leaderboard each round.
Even though the course measures nearly 7,600 yards, this is not a bomber’s course. Several holes require less than a driver off the tee, and playing from the fairway is much more important than being a little closer to the hole. There’s nearly a 25% difference in the Greens in Regulation rate from the fairway compared to the rough. For my off-the-tee metrics, I am focusing on Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Good Drive Percentage.
The greens here are small (5,000 square feet) and tough to hit in regulation. With thick rough around the green and many pins leaving golfers short-sided, the scrambling success rate here is much lower than TOUR average. The greens feature pure bentgrass and are lightning-fast (13 on the stimpmeter). Essentially, this is a tough driving course, a tough approach course, and a tough around-the-green course. If you have a weakness, this course will expose it.
Course history has been predictive here over the years, which means golfers who have played well here before tend to play well here again. I’m bumping up course history in my model this week. I’m also looking at Strokes Gained on Long and Difficult Courses. As always, you can download my model and customize the weights to create your own golfer ratings, which you can upload directly into LineupHQ.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the Memorial Tournament
Core Plays
Ludvig Aberg
Noto Rating: 2 / Cash Rating: 2 / GPP Rating: 6
DraftKings: $10,100 / pOWN%: 19%
FanDuel: $11,400 / pOWN%: 30%
Course History L5 Years: 16, 5
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 4
Strokes Gained: Approach: 2
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 14
Strokes Gained: Putting: 27
Aberg underwhelmed with a T17 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week and is in a tough pricing tier this week. There’s a decent chance he ends up garnering less than 20% ownership this week, which would be terrific. He’s been in incredible form over the last few months. He’s rattled off 9 straight top-25 finishes with 4 top-5 finishes during that stretch. He’s become more of a complete golfer this year, as he’s been positive in all four of the Strokes Gained categories. He’s made the cut in both of his two appearances here, finishing T5 and T16. It feels like a big win is coming sooner rather than later.
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