Free Premium! PGA DFS Core Plays: Travelers Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
I have to say, it was a good week for the DFS plays in this article at the U.S. Open. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, and Cameron Smith all finished in the top 10. Unfortunately, I decided to play Patrick Reed over Wyndham Clark in the majority of my contests, which ended up being the difference between a great week and a losing week of DFS. It was another close call for the outright betting card. For the third straight week, we’ve had at least three golfers in contention and for the third straight week, we haven’t been able to get any of them across the finish line. All we can ask for in golf betting is a Sunday sweat, and we’ve had plenty of that the last couple of months. For this week’s bets, scroll all the way to the bottom of this article.
We now turn our attention to the Travelers Championship. This has always been one of my favorite events to sweat, and this year we get the luxury of it being a designated event. This means a stronger field and a bigger purse. I wish this wasn’t the week after a major, but I am very happy with the field that we have set to tee it up at TPC River Highlands. This is a Pete Dye design that measures only 6,852 yards. It’s a Par 70 that generally plays around tour average in terms of difficulty.
Like most Dye designs, TPC River Highlands can’t be overpowered off the tee. A lot of the holes require less than driver, and the average fairway width in the landing areas is around 37 yards wide. With wide fairways and many less than driver holes, it’s no surprise that golfers have been able to pepper these fairways in the past. I certainly don’t see this as a bomber’s track, but it’s not necessarily an accuracy course either. Ultimately, I think off-the-tee metrics in general aren’t as important as most weeks.
The greens here are small (5,000 square feet on average) and feature bentgrass. They feature tiers, which places an emphasis on the second shot. With most of the field playing from the same spots in the fairway, we can rely a bit more on approach shot distributions. Based on data from past events here, there will be a lot of approach shots from 125 to 175 yards. I will be taking a peek at proximity numbers from those ranges. With the greens being easy to hit on average, I’m not placing too much of an emphasis on around the green play.
Without a strong course fit and with this being one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, any type of golfer can contend here. Having experience at this course is a plus, and I’m mostly looking to target golfers that are in good form.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Travelers Championship
Field Breakdown Video & Model Download Link for the Travelers Championship
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
Golf Course
- TPC River Highlands
- Par 70 — 6,852 yards
- Location: Cromwell, Connecticut
- Designer: Pete Dye
- Fairway width in landing area: 37 yards
- Fairways and greens: bentgrass with poa annua
- Rough: Kentucky bluegrass with fescue
- Green size: 5,000 square feet
Course Notes
- Water is in play on five holes
- Difficulty the last five years: 22nd, 22nd, 32nd, 19th, 25th
- Less than driver is required on many holes
- Tree-lined fairways that are easy to hit
- Missed fairway penalty is fairly high
- Any type of golfer can contend here
- Many approach shots from 125-175 yards
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Total driving
- Birdie or better %
- Pete Dye experience
- Proximity from 125-175 yards
- Strokes gained putting (Emphasis on bentgrass)
Core Plays
Patrick Cantlay
DK: $10,200 — FD: $11,800
SG: OTT — 2
SG: APP — 16
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 27
BOB% — 2
SG: Putting (Bent) — 1
Noto’s Rating — 94.7
If you like golfers with a high floor, it’s hard to go wrong with Cantlay this week. I have questions about Rahm on this course, about Rory after another heartbreaker, and about Xander being the defending champion. I don’t have any concerns with Cantlay, who has five straight top-15 finishes at this event and nine straight top-30 finishes on the PGA Tour. He’s elite off the tee, he’s good with his irons, he makes about as many birdies as anyone, and he’s first in the field in strokes gained putting on bentgrass. He absolutely loves Pete Dye courses, and that includes this one.
Si Woo Kim
DK: $8,000 — FD: $9,500
SG: OTT — 34
SG: APP — 18
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 17
BOB% — 27
SG: Putting (Bent) — 77
Noto’s Rating — 78.0
Kim is having his most consistent season on the PGA Tour. He’s been a top-30 machine all year and has already racked up a win and two more top-five finishes. There’s nothing special about his T39 finish last week on the surface, but that was his best finish at the U.S. Open in seven years. He’s accurate off the tee and is nearly as good as anyone when it comes to getting the ball in the hole from the fairway. He’s solid on approach, he’s a good scrambler, and he’s a decent putter. He has two wins on Pete Dye courses, and TPC River Highlands really sets up well for his skill set.
Brian Harman
DK: $7,500 — FD: $9,100
SG: OTT — 56
SG: APP — 72
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 42
BOB% — 115
SG: Putting (Bent) — 84
Noto’s Rating — 68.5
It feels good to have Harman back in my life. After a long stretch where he struggled on approach and around the green, he seems to have figured some things out. He has gained over two strokes on approach in three of his last four starts and has gained strokes around the green during that stretch. More importantly, he returns to a place that he absolutely loves. He has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five editions of this tournament, and he’s done it in a number of ways. I like the combination of his form returning and him playing on a course that really sets up well for him.
Conviction Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DK: $11,300 — FD: $12,300
SG: OTT — 2
SG: APP — 1
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 1
BOB% — 5
SG: Putting (Bent) — 86
Noto’s Rating — 95.7
I have played around with Scheffler/Cantlay builds and they don’t look as bad as you might expect. For whatever reason, it feels like the masses aren’t on Scheffler as much this week as they have been over the last couple of months. His ownership projection on DraftKings is below 20%, even though he has rattled off 16 straight top-12 finishes and five straight top-five finishes. He’s on pace to have the second-best tee-to-green season ever and he’s top three in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and proximity from 125 to 175 yards. The putter has been a big letdown, but it’s worth noting that he gained strokes on the green at the U.S. Open last week. The price isn’t too prohibitive, and he’s treated me well, so I plan to go right back to Scheffler this week.
Sahith Theegala
DK: $8,300 — FD: $9,900
SG: OTT — 125
SG: APP — 40
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 64
BOB% — 12
SG: Putting (Bent) — 19
Noto’s Rating — 72.1
Theegala is one of those golfers that doesn’t seem to have a course fit. He tends to play well on all types of courses, and while he generally does it with his short game, he has proven that he can sustain these incredible around the green and putting numbers. He is still searching for that first career solo win (he did win a team event) and nearly got it at this event last year. He hit his drive on the 18th hole on Sunday right up against the lip of the bunker and ultimately finished second to Xander. I’m hoping he still has positive vibes heading into this week, and I think the high price point will help keep ownership at a reasonable level.
Denny McCarthy
DK: $7,600 — FD: $9,200
SG: OTT — 108
SG: APP — 77
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 113
BOB% — 40
SG: Putting (Bent) — 2
Noto’s Rating — 71.8
While course history is important this week, I tend to overlook it when it comes to a player like McCarthy. He’s playing the best golf of his career, so I’m not too concerned about how well he played on a certain course five years ago. He had a nice showing at the U.S. Open and nearly won the Memorial Tournament prior to that. On paper, TPC River Highlands should really set up well for his skill set. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s one of the best putters in the world, and his irons have really turned a corner this season. I think there’s a real chance that he could contend again this week.
Andrew Putnam
DK: $7,200 — FD: $8,200
SG: OTT — 96
SG: APP — 39
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 88
BOB% — 62
SG: Putting (Bent) — 12
Noto’s Rating — 66.6
Putnam has been one of my model favorites for a large portion of the season, especially on these shorter courses. While he doesn’t gain a ton of strokes off the tee, he does hit a lot of fairways. His iron play has been solid (he has gained three or more strokes on approach in five of his last nine starts), he’s excellent around the green, and we know he can light it up with the flatstick. For whatever reason, he never seems to garner much ownership. I’ll gladly play him at sub-10% at a course where he’s 3-for-3 with a T13 finish in 2021.
Mark Hubbard
DK: $6,900 — FD: $8,100
SG: OTT — 130
SG: APP — 9
Proximity (125-175 yards) — 25
BOB% — 54
SG: Putting (Bent) — 53
Noto’s Rating — 65.1
The final play of the week is one that seems between $600 and $1,000 too cheap. I had to do a double take when I first ran my model, as Hubbard had a similar rating to Justin Thomas. However, when you take away the names and look strictly at the stats and the results, it makes sense. Hubbard is not a great driver of the ball, but that’s not a huge concern on this course. He’s a top 10 iron player in the field, and for a long time, he was known as a short-game specialist. He has a couple of recent top 10s and has never missed the cut at this event (3-for-3). He fits nicely into those Scheffler/Cantlay builds.
PGA Betting Card
Here are some of the winners we’ve had in the last eight weeks:
- Wyndham Clark +7500 ✅
- Jason Day +2100 ✅
- Brooks Koepka +2200 ✅
- Three top 40 parlays ✅
- Three placement parlays ✅
Last week: -2.3 units
Season total: +13.8 units
This week: 9 units in play
I always provide my weekly golf picks to the premium members here at RotoGrinders, but we would love to have you check all of the great sports betting content at ScoresAndOdds.
Travelers Championship
Outrights
- Scottie Scheffler +650 (2 units Caesars)
- Si Woo Kim +5000 (BetMGM)
- Sahith Theegala +6000 (FanDuel)
- Denny McCarthy +8000 (FanDuel)
Top 40 Parlays
- Parlay 1: +924 (FanDuel)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Brendon Todd
- Parlay 2: +1130 (FanDuel)
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Mark Hubbard
- C.T. Pan
- Parlay 3: +962 (FanDuel)
- Brian Harman
- Denny McCarthy
- Andrew Putnam
- Parlay 4: +881 (FanDuel)
- Corey Conners
- Sahith Theegala
- Sungjae Im
- Russell Henley
Note: When it comes to units, betting on golf is a bit different than betting on other sports. For instance, what I bet on an outright in golf is smaller than what I would bet on an NBA or MLB game. However, to keep it simple for tracking purposes, each golf bet posted will be for one unit unless stated otherwise.
Image Credit: Getty Images
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