PGA DFS Core Plays: Valero Texas Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
It feels good coming off a winning week. While Joel Dahmen ruined my DFS dreams, Stephan Jaeger came through as an outright bet at +5000. After so many bad breaks on the outright front to start the season, it was nice to have all of the breaks go my way on Sunday. There were legitimately five golfers that could have tied or passed Jaeger on the back nine. Ultimately, nobody could get a putt to drop, and Jaeger outlasted everyone to claim his first PGA TOUR victory. This offers some nice padding for the bankroll heading into the Masters next week.
Before focusing all of our attention on the year’s first major, we have the Valero Texas Open to break down. There’s a fairly strong field set to tee it up at TPC San Antonio. This course is a Par 72 that measures 7,438 yards. The four par fives are the best way to score on the course, much like we’ll see next week at Augusta National. While I wouldn’t call this a brutal test of golf, the course is regularly in the top 15 in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Valero Texas Open
The fairways at TPC San Antonio are narrow (28 yards wide) and are surrounded by trees and thick rough. Distance off the tee is certainly an advantage on the par fives, but it’s not a prerequisite for success here. Any course where Matt Kuchar posts a top-20 finish every year is not a bomber’s paradise. Rather than focusing on distance or accuracy, I like the idea of using a combination of both (total driving). Leaning on strokes gained off the tee is never a bad strategy, so I’m including that in this week’s model as well.
The greens here are average in size (6,400 square feet) and feature bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed (similar to what we’ve seen the last few weeks). In 2023, the field was only able to hit 61% of greens in regulation. This places an emphasis on around the green play and why we’ve seen so many good scramblers play well here over the year. In terms of approach shot distances, we are going to see a lot of wedges and short irons.
Course history here has been very predictive over the years, so we can bump up the importance of it this week. I am also taking a long look at overall success in the state of Texas. Based on the early forecast, we are expecting 20+ MPH gusts on three of the four days of the tournament. Similar to last week, I am focusing most of my attention on golfers that are solid tee to green. I’m willing to take a chance on bad putters given the difficulty of the course.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Valero Texas Open
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Par 72 — 7,438 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (15th), 2022 (18th), 2021 (15th), 2019 (28th), 2018 (12th)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 3
- Fairway width in landing areas: 27.9 yards
- Green type: poa trivialis overseed
- Green size: 6,400 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving distance = 296 yards
- - Driving accuracy = 49%
- - Greens in regulation = 61%
Event and Course Notes
- This serves as a tune up before the Masters for many in the field
- Fairways here are narrow and the rough is thick and penal
- Fairly long course with four par 5s, so driving the ball well is imperative
- Good course for ball strikers (see: Corey Conners, Charley Hoffman, Ryan Moore)
- Average-sized greens that are tiered and feature poa trivialis overseed
- Greens are very tough to hit on average, which makes scrambling important
- Around the green has a massive weight for the course fit on DataGolf
- Distance is an advantage, but shorter hitters can contend if they hit fairways
- Course history has been fairly predictive here over the years
- Looking for strong tee to green golfers with Texas experience
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes around the green
- Total driving
- Birdie or better %
- Strokes gained putting (emphasis on poa trivialis overseed)
Core Plays
Corey Conners
DraftKings: $9,400 / pOWN: 27%
FanDuel: $11,100 / pOWN:
Total Driving: 3
Strokes Gained Approach: 5
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 102
Strokes Gained Putting: 105
Birdie or Better %: 36
Bogey Avoidance: 46
I have mixed feelings about Conners this week, but I am tagging him as a core play because he’s the most logical starting point for cash games and for small-field tournaments. I plan to have a lot of exposure to him in these formats and then be underweight on him in my MME builds. He’s a perfect 5-for-5 at this event in his career with two wins. He’s top five in this field in total driving and in strokes gained approach. And he leads the field in greens in regulation this year. The downside for Conners is usually his short game, but that hasn’t been an issue for him at this course in the past. In five starts here, he has gained a total of 4.4 strokes putting. He clearly loves the course, and his recent ball striking numbers are extremely encouraging. The downside is that he’s going to be one of the highest-owned golfers on the slate.
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