PGA DFS Core Plays: Wells Fargo Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
I was a little more invested in THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson than I otherwise would have been, as I had a +10000 ticket on Taylor Pendrith. He had the lead all Sunday and had it evaporate on holes 16 and 17. Ben Kohles birdied both holes to go up by one shot heading into the Par 5 18th. He hit his second up by the green and needed to get up and down for the win. Luckily, he flubbed his chip and then hit his second chip to about 5 feet. Pendrith had a more conventional hole, as he hit his second on the green and two-putted for birdie. Ultimately, Kohles missed his short par putt, and Pendrith won by one shot. After that stroke of luck, I vow not to complain about a bad betting break for a while. I hope some of you were on the Pendrith bet as well.
We now turn our attention to the Wells Fargo Championship. This is a Signature Event, with a field of only 69 golfers. It was supposed to be 70 golfers, but Ludvig Aberg withdrew earlier this week. Unlike some of the earlier Signature Events this year, this one does not feature a cut. Barring a withdrawal, golfers are guaranteed to play all four rounds. Quail Hollow Club is one of my favorite venues on the PGA TOUR. It is a Par 71 that measures over 7,500 yards. There have been a couple of years where this event was held at a different course, but the last three times it has been played here, it has ranked 14th, 5th, and 8th in terms of difficulty.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Wells Fargo Championship
The fairways here are wide (33 yards), there are very few forced lay-ups, and the course is extremely long. Make no mistake about it, this is a driver-heavy course. Golfers will hit driver on almost all of the par 4s and par 5s. The average driving distance here in 2023 was 304 yards. This is one of a handful of courses where driving distance is a significant advantage. The greens are average in size (6,600 square feet) and difficult to hit in regulation (63%). This places an emphasis on both iron play and scrambling. There are very few wedge shots, as 75% of approach shots are expected to come from at least 150 yards.
This is one of the more predictive venues in terms of course history. Golfers that play well here tend to continue to play well here. In terms of the type of golfer that I am looking for this week, distance off the tee is a plus. I’m also looking for golfers who are good with their mid and long irons, who are good around the green, and who have a good track record in strong fields and on difficult golf courses. Essentially, I’m looking for a solid all-around game and hopefully some distance off the tee.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Wells Fargo Championship
Field Size:
- 69 golfers
Cut Rule:
- No cut
Weather Forecasts
Quail Hollow Club
- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
- Par 71 — 7,558 yards
- Recent winners: Wyndham Clark (2023), Rory McIlroy (2021), Max Homa (2019)
- Difficulty: 2023 (14th), 2021 (5th), 2019 (8th)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 7
- Fairway width in landing areas: 33 yards
- Green type: bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed
- Green size: 6,600 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving distance = 304 yards
- - Driving accuracy = 54%
- - Greens in regulation = 63%
- - 76% of approach shots were from 150+ yards
Event and Course Notes
- We have another Signature Event that doesn’t feature a cut
- Barring a withdrawal, all golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds
- Championship-level golf course (has hosted PGA Championship & Presidents Cup)
- Classical course that is very long and very difficult
- Average driving distance in 2023 was 304 yards, so it’s bombs away off the tee
- Very few wedge shots hit here each year; most approach shots are from 150+ yards
- Greens are fairly difficult to hit on average; bump up scrambling and bogey avoidance
- A solid all-around game is needed to win here
What to Look For
- Strokes gained off the tee
- Strokes gained approach
- Driving distance
- Bogey avoidance
- Strokes gained around the green
- Strokes gained putting
- Experience in strong fields
- Experience on difficult courses
Core Plays
Cameron Young
DraftKings: $8,800 / pOWN%: 16%
FanDuel: $10,000 / pOWN%: 22%
Driving Distance: 4
Strokes Gained Approach: 30
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 55
Strokes Gained Putting: 56
Birdie or Better %: 9
Bogey Avoidance: 46
Young is more volatile than most of the golfers that I tag as core plays, but he’s my pick to win this week. I can’t think of a better course for his skill set. He’s one of the best (and longest) drivers of the ball on TOUR and is extremely precise with his mid and long irons. He’ll play well at the occasional short track but usually one when they require a lot of approach shots from 150+ yards. He’s contended at a number of majors, so we know he likes difficult golf courses. Believe it or not, he already has seven runner-up finishes in his career. With his talent level, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through and picks up that first win on the PGA TOUR. He certainly knows how to win, as he picked up two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour before making it to the big leagues.
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