PGA DFS Preview: The Masters
The best week of sports (NCAA Championship, MLB Opening Day, and The Masters) is coming to an end and is concluded with the best event in golf.
In addition the anticipation of an amazing tournament with star-studded players, we have the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament to look forward to. To win a million dollars in a tournament with hundreds of thousands of individuals, you have to do everything right, and perhaps most importantly, get a little bit of luck as well.
So how do we give ourselves the best chance of winning? Let’s take a look at a few pointers.
Multi-entry
This one is pretty obvious. The more bullets you have in the event, the more likely you are to win. I’m not saying that it’s not possible for a single bullet to win this thing, but it’s also not likely either. I don’t advocate dumping your entire bankroll into this tournament, but having 5-10 is much more valuable than one or two.
There will be satellites running up until the tournament start, so you can get entries as cheap as $0.25, $1, $3, or $5. Having multiple entries allow you to diversify your core set of plays and create lineups with different combinations.
Leave Salary on the Table
If you are an avid NBA player, you know how crazy this sounds, but it might be a smart idea to leave at least a little salary on the table for your Millionaire Maker lineup(s).
The majority of players will attempt to “zero out” their lineups, or at least get within a few hundred dollars of their budget. This leads to a high potential of overlapping lineups. The last thing you want is to split the “million” with 400 people so everyone gets $2,500 instead (okay, that wouldn’t be the WORST thing, but it’s not a million). The more salary you leave out there, the greater the chance you have of having a unique lineup. If you leave $200, chances are decent there will still be a few duplicates, If you leave $1000+ out there? You’re probably by yourself, which is a good thing.
Our very own Dan Back wrote an amazing article last year about this very topic. Check it out, you won’t regret it.
Do Everything Right
Winning a million in the midst of tens of thousands of other entries obviously isn’t easy.
So what’s it going to take? Obviously, all players will need to make the cut. If you don’t think someone has a reasonable chance of making the cut, don’t pick them. This one isn’t rocket science. Next (equally obvious), you’ll need the winner of the tournament in your lineup. Obviously you can’t afford a lineup full of players who the ability to win, but the goal is to fit as many as possible. I think it’s reasonable to fit three or so players with a decent shot of winning. To round out the perfect lineup, you’re going to need plenty of Top 10s and Top 25s. It’s hard to say for sure what will be required, but it’d be reasonable to assume that the winning lineup will have the winner, two or three others in the Top 10, and all golfers in the Top 25. Easy, right? Let’s go win a million!
The Masters Special
I normally write up between five and seven players, but wanted to do a little extra for the Masters week and ended up with twelve golfers. I’ll be checking the comments semi-frequently, but you can also reach out to me on Twitter with any questions you have. Hope you enjoy the write-up!
Jason Day ($11,600)
There are eight players priced above $10k, and all have a realistic chance of winning this weekend. Regardless of price, I think Jason Day has the best shot, so it’s a bonus that we’re getting him as the fourth most expensive golfer. Day benefits from the pricing being released several weeks ago, before he began his torrid run. Day won the Arnold Palmer and then followed it up with an impressive win at the Dell Match Play event. This earned him the #1 ranking in the world and he comes into this event as the player to beat. Day drives the ball well (20th in Driving Distance), scores well on Par 5s (20th in Par 5 Scoring), and is a great putter (3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting). While he doesn’t have the history of someone like Phil or Spieth, he does have a 3rd place finish in 2013. There are more contrarian plays out there, but I don’t want to fade the guy I fully expect to contend for a win on Sunday.
Bubba Watson ($11,400)
The Giants and Bubba Watson are inexplicably linked. Both have won their big events (World Series for Giants, Masters for Bubba) in even years in 2014 and 2012, but have had little success in years in between. It’s 2016, so it appears time for Watson to win another Masters. I wouldn’t buy into it fi Watson wasn’t playing excellent golf, but he is. He already has two wins in seven events, including five Top 15 finishes. People probably overuse or overhype the need for “creativity” at Augusta, but it rings true with Watson. Watson needs to be intruiged by the course, or as many say, it needs to “suit his eye”, and The Masters has always done that for Bubba. Watson leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation (GIR). Watson is also one of the most notorious bombres and ranks 4th in Driving Distance. Watson’s putter has been lousy this year (144th in SG:Putting), but familiarity with the greens can often be as important as actual putting abilities at August.
Henrik Stenson ($9,600)
The majority of this article is focused around players to put in your lineup for the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings. Stenson is one of the few guys here I think is better suited for other tournaments or cash games versus the MM. Here’s the reason. Like others have stated, I just don’t see Stenson winning this tournament. Sure, he could surprise, but I don’t think he quite has the mental acuity and history here to bring down a “W”. That being said, at just $9,600, you don’t necessarily have to have a win from him to reach value (if such a thing exists in PGA DFS). A Top 5 would easily justify his price, and I think that’s well within the realm of possibilities. Stenson has been brilliant lately, finishing second, third, and 11th in his last three events. Stenson is a Tee-to-Green (3rd) and Greens in Regulation (6th) master who is arguably the best ball striker on Tour (2nd). Like Watson, his putting can also hold him back and his mental toughness isn’t always top notch. If you roster him, just know what you’re getting and hope for a Top 5.
Charl Schwartzel ($9,400)
Who is the antithesis of Henrik Stenson? That would be Charl Schwartzel. While Stenson is a steady player who may not have the chops to win the event, Schwartzel is sporatic but has proven he can win here before. Schwartzel won a few weeks ago at the Valspar and followed it up with a 13th at the Houston Open. Other than his win here in 2011, Schwartzel has had a mixed bag of course history. I’m relying on his current form and 2011 history to outweigh the other subpar finishes. Unlike most of the other names here, Schwartzel isn’t a long bomber, but he isn’t short off the tee either. He truly excels tee-to-green (10th), which I think will be enough to have him in contention this week.
Patrick Reed ($8,300)
Reed floated along through the first three rounds of the Houston Open, and then reminded everyone during the fourth round how dominant he can be when he’s on, firing a final round 67 to vault him to a Top 10 finish. It marked his second straight Top 10 in Tour events, and he also had a solid showing in the Dell Match Play event a few weeks ago. Reed’s stats look pretty similar to Schwartzel’s in that he’s not terribly long, but gains plenty of strokes from tee to green. He also excels at scrambling, where he ranks third this year. He doesn’t have much history here (just his third appearance), but he did finish 22nd last year. For the price, Reed is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Danny Willett ($8,000)
I was hoping there would be very little buzz about Danny Willett coming into the week. Unfortunately, there has been some chatter, but nothing more than a whispering or two about him. At $8,000, he might be the best bang for your buck in the field. There aren’t many players below $9k with a decent chance to win, but I think Willett fits that mold. Before a stumble at the Valspar, Willet made his Masters debut last year and finished 38th. I’d be surprised if he didn’t drastically improve on that performance in 2016. Oh yea, and if you’re looking for some #NarrativeStreet, Willet just had a baby! Lock and load.
Marc Leishman ($7,900)
Leishman is one of those players that the casual golf fan who joined DraftKings to play the Millionaire Maker this week will have very little exposure. People who follow the game, however, should have at least some exposure to Leishman. He has been playing really well lately, although his price doesn’t reflect that. He has finished within the Top 28 in his last three Tour events, including a T5 at the Northern Trust. He doesn’t have a wealth of course history, but a fifth place finish in 2013 shouldn’t be ignored. He is an excellent scrambler (9th), and his ability to drive the ball (27th in DD) combined with his tee-to-green (16th) game make him a force to be reckoned with.
Paul Casey ($7,700)
I struggled with this pick more than any of the others. I was torn between players like Kisner, Kuchar, and Zach Johnson, all around this same price point. Casey gets the nod due to his hot play lately. In his last two events, he finished 7th and 9th. His course history is a little confusing and can be interpreted in a variety of ways. Last year, most importantly, he finished 6th at the Masters. He excels from tee-to-green (19th in SG:T2G and 10th in GIR), largely because he’s a great ball striker (4th). Casey isn’t bad with the flat stick either (57th in SG: Putting). If he can manage to be just above average with the putter, I think he’ll make the cut and compete for a solid finish.
Ryan Moore ($6,800)
I’m happy that Ryan Moore had a miserable 3rd round at the Arnold Palmer (81) several weeks ago. Why? It led Moore to finishing 74th and showing a bad score on his DraftKings game log. I’m hoping that people will focus on this instead of the two Top 10 finishes before it. In addition, he made it to the quarterfinals of the Dell Match Play event. People might avoid Moore because is a short hitter (just 150 in Driving Distance), but I think he has the game to compete here. He has shown well here with three finishes in the Top 15 and just one missed cut in seven appearances. Also, his best performance was last year when he finished 12th. I don’t think he’ll be in the running for a victory, but a Top 25 finish wouldn’t surprise me for a bargain bin price.
Andy Sullivan ($6,600)
Long before Andy Sullivan was beginning to make a name for himself on the PGA Tour, he was doing it overseas. Recently, he picked the brains of Mark O’Meara and Mike Weir during a practice round. He talked about how important it is to try and gain knowledge from veterans since he hasn’t played here before. Sure, it’s a risk playing a rookie and generally not an advised strategy, but I think Sullivan has the game to succeed. He hasn’t missed a cut on the US Tour and has finished in the Top 27 in his last three tournaments. On the European Tour, he has three more Top 25s and a T2. He doesn’t make a ton of birdies, but he grinds out pars, which can be a very good thing at Augusta. He won’t be highly owned and could be a nice pivot to the player above (Moore) and below (Hoffman), who will be much higher owned.
Charley Hoffman ($6,400)
If you follow golf closely or play PGA DFS, you probably know the drill with Charley Hoffman. He starts tournaments extremely well, often leading after the cut on Friday. Then, he proceeds to melt down during crunch time and finishes in a disappointing position. If you look at his scoring average by round, you’ll notice it goes up on each round, including a Round 4 Scoring Average of 75 compared to his Ppening Round Scoring Average of 70. So what’s the good news? Hoffman is unlikely to be in contention for the win in this event. If he starts relatively well and makes the cut, he’s still unlikely to be at the top of the leaderboard, leaving him in continual “no-pressure” situations in which he seems to thrive. This might seem like too much psychology, but I honestly believe this. Hoffman also has more game than anyone around him at this price point. He has also played well here in the past, including a 9th place finish last season.
Smylie Kaufman ($6,000)
We round out our last value with a player who should be one of the most popular plays this weekend, especially within the DFS community. Smylie Kaufman might not be known by the casual fan (yet), but it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a household name. Kaufman made five consecutive cuts to start the year, missed back-to-back cuts in February, and then rebounded with three more made cuts, including two finishes in the Top 12. Kaufman ranks in the Top 25 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (24th), Par 5 Scoring Average (14th), and All-Around (15th). This could be the week the kid makes a splash on the national stage.