PGA DFS Preview: US Open
Plenty of others on this site and others across the industry have taken a deeper dive into this event and course.
To save you some time, it can be summed up like this. IT’S HARD. This course could play as one of the most challenging ever, and breaking par will be a tremendous challenge. Experts are predicting that the winner might be five shots over par, which is unheard of. This creates an interesting dynamic for fantasy because fantasy scoring is predicated on actual scoring (duh). Because actual scores will be high (creating low scores for fantasy), a bigger focus will be required on “finishing” or “place” points, which is where the player ends up at the end of the tournament. These points should represent a much higher percentage of the total points than in usual tournaments.
Let’s get in to some strategies for the Millionaire Maker!
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Millionaire Maker Strategy
I originally wrote this for The Masters, but is relevant again so I figured I would repost. To win a million dollars in a tournament with hundreds of thousands of individuals, you have to do everything right, and perhaps most importantly, get a little bit of luck as well. So how do we give ourselves the best chance of winning? Let’s take a look at a few pointers.
Multi-entry
This one is pretty obvious. The more bullets you have in the event, the more likely you are to win. I’m not saying that it’s not possible for a single bullet to win this thing, but it’s also not likely either. I don’t advocate dumping your entire bankroll into this tournament, but having 5-10 is much more valuable than one or two. There will be satellites running up until the tournament start, so you can get entries as cheap as $0.25, $1, $3, or $5. Having multiple entries allow you to diversify your core set of plays and create lineups with different combinations.
Leave Salary on the Table
If you are an avid NBA player, you know how crazy this sounds, but it might be a smart idea to leave at least a little salary on the table for your millionaire maker lineup. The majority of players will attempt to “zero out” their lineups, or at least get within a few hundred dollars of their budget. This leads to a high potential of overlapping lineups. The last thing you want is to split the “million” with 400 people so everyone gets $2,500 instead (ok that wouldn’t be the WORST thing, but it’s not a million). The more salary you leave out there, the greater the chance you have of having a unique lineup. If you leave $200, chances are decent there will still be a few duplicates, If you leave $1000+ out there? You’re probably by yourself, which is a good thing. Our very own Dan Back wrote an amazing article last year about this very topic. Check it out, you won’t regret it.
Gotta Do Everything Right
Winning a million in the midst of tens of thousands of other entries obviously isn’t easy. So what’s it going to take? Obviously, all players will need to make the cut. If you don’t think someone has a reasonable chance of making the cut, don’t pick them. This one isn’t rocket science. Next (equally obvious), you’ll need the winner of the tournament in your lineup. Obviously you can’t afford a lineup full of players who the ability to win, but the goal is to fit as many as possible. I think it’s reasonable to fit three or so players with a decent shot of winning. To round out the perfect lineup, you’re going to need plenty of Top 10s and Top 25s. It’s hard to say for sure what will be required, but it’d be reasonable to assume that the winning lineup will have the winner, two or three others in the Top 10, and all golfers in the Top 25. Easy, right? Let’s go win a million!
US Open Picks
Jason Day ($12,100)
NOTE: As of Tuesday afternoon, Jason Day is battling a cold. It shouldn’t be much of a hindrance to his performance this week, but stay tuned for future updates.
Jason Day is the world’s best player. Yes, Spieth and McIlroy are elite players too, but no one possesses the blend of power, finesse, and putting ability like Day. Here are some of the categories where Day ranks first on Tour this year: Strokes Gained Putting, Strokes Gained: Total, Sand Save Percentage, and Bounce-back %. I think all of these are pertinent in their own way. Strokes Gained: Putting and Total are pretty self-explanatory. Sand Save Percentage will be crucial due to the large number of bunkers. And Bounce-back % shows the mental toughness that will be required to respond after tough holes, and there will be plenty of tough holes. Day also ranks in the Top 25 in several other key categories like SG: Tee-to-Green and Driving Distance. He’s the complete package and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him standing in the winner’s circle on Sunday night.
Dustin Johnson ($11,000)
I clearly like Day the most of the “Big 3”, and while I don’t dislike Rory or Spieth, I don’t have enough confidence in their to spend up for them. Rory still worries me with his putter and the potential for some huge numbers, especially at a course like this. Spieth’s accuracy, both with the driver and from his irons has been sporadic at best. That leaves us with Dustin Johnson. It’s crazy to think I “trust” him the most, but hear me out. Johnson is having one of the best season’s in recent memory without an actual win. He has eight Top 10s in 13 appearances and hasn’t missed a cut. His putting, much maligned in the past, has actually become a relative strong point, and has moved into the Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting. He’s always been long off the tee (3rd in Driving Distance), which could come in handy this week. His real strength this year has been in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (3rd) and Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green (9th). I worry about his inability to scramble well and the potential mental meltdown, but I think his upside offsets these negatives and makes a great tournament play.
Danny Willett ($9,600)
Willett is a tough player to project because he doesn’t even have enough appearances on the PGA Tour to qualify him for their stat rankings. In his six events on US soil, he has a victory (The Masters) and two 3rd place finishes. If we “qualify” Willett’s stats, he would rank 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and 11th in GIR. These are some of the strongest part of his game, and I think it’ll help keep him out of trouble and negotiate it when he does find it. This isn’t necessarily tangible, but I also think he possesses the mental toughness required to navigate this course. He showed during the final round of The Masters that he has a killer instinct that few can match.
Matt Kuchar ($8,500)
The “Sketchers” man is on fire lately, and no, not in the same way that Steph Curry’s new shoes are “fire”. Although let’s be honest, Matt Kuchar has probably already ordered a pair because they are definitely old man shoes. Kuchar has finished in the Top 6 in four consecutive week. Kuchar has done it in typical fashion by avoiding blowup holes and grinding out results. Unsurpsringly, Kuchar ranks highly in the Bogey Avoidance category (12th) and he also ranks well as a Scrambler (23rd). He is in the Top 50 in all of the “Strokes Gained” Categories, so he brings a well-rounded game to a course that will require it. He’s shorter off the tee than I might prefer, but his Driving Accuracy (28th) should help to offset this weakness. Despite a loaded field, I expect to see Kuchar in contention again on Sunday.
Patrick Reed ($8,400)
If you scroll through Patrick Reed’s game logs, you’ll quickly notice that he’s a bit of an enigma. When he’s on his game, he’s one of the top talents in the world and fully capable of winning even in the biggest stages. When he’s off, however, he can miss cuts (Players Championship) or quickly fall out of contention (The Masters). Recently, Reed has been rounding into form. He has back-to-back Top 15 finishes, including an 8th at the Memorial. Reed has also had some success at the US Open (albeit a different venue), finishing 14th here last season. Reed’s strength is around the greens. Unsurprisingly, he is ranked first in the newly established Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green stat, and he’s also 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s a phenomenal scrambler (2nd) and sand player (25th), which should help him recover from trouble. I think Reed flies under the radar due to his recent major struggles and makes for a nice contrarian play.
Brooks Koepka ($8,100)
If you have been reading my articles for any length of time, you know that I have a soft spot for Brooks Koepka. Koepka almost captured another PGA Tour victory last week, but couldn’t quite catch Daniel Berger. That makes back-to-back runner-ups for Koepka. In his brief career, Koepka has already seen plenty of success at US Opens. In 2014 at Pinehurst, he burst onto the scene with a tie for 4th. Last year at Chambers Bay, he finished in 18th. Koepka ranks highly in several of the key categories, including SG: Off-the-Tee (5th), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (21st), and Strokes Gained: Putting (37th). Koepka can be erratic off the tee and doesn’t scramble too well, but if he can keep things in/on the fairway/green, he should be able to contend yet again.
Russell Knox ($7,600)
Two statistics pop off the page when viewing Russell Knox’ page on PGATour.com: Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation (GIR). Knox ranks 8th in Driving Accuracy and 4th in GIR. He ranked 28th and 7th in these last year, so it’s clearly not a fluke. Knox is a smaller, shorter (off-the-tee) player, but makes up for his lack of size and strength with precision play. This course will require plenty of precision to stay out of precarious positions where huge numbers are possible. When he does get into danger, his 18th ranked Scrambling should help him recover. He is 2nd on Tour, trailing only Rickie fowler, in Bogey Avoidance. Making pars and avoiding disasters will be a valuable asset, and I think Knox has a good chance of doing just that.
Charl Schwartzel ($7,500)
Although Brooks Koepka is “my guy”, Charl Schwartzel is close to becoming “my guy #2”. I seem to be higher on him than most in any given week, and that might be the case again this week. Since a disappointing missed cut at The Masters, Schwartzel has rebounded to play well, finishing 58th, 25th, and 11th in his last three events. He’s 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green. His GIR % (17th) and Scrambling (26th) rankings are both positive and should put him in a place to succeed this week. His putting is often his biggest weakness (85th in SG: Putting), but it’s possible that this deficiency will be offset by the crazy fast greens. With other quality players around him at this price, I don’t expect his ownership to be too high.
Retief Goosen ($6,300)
I plugged in a temporary lineup last Wednesday when the Millionaire Maker pricing had been released, and the final guy to make his way into my temporary lineup was Retief Goosen. I ended up plugging him into last weekend lineup as well, and he paid off in a big way, coming in 12th for a second straight week. That makes three straight Top 14s for “Goose” overall, and he appears to be drinking from the fountain of youth. Goosen has performed well by picking up strokes around the green (7th) while also knocking in plenty of putts (16th in Strokes Gained: Putting). The only negative is that Goosen will be on everyone’s radar and should be one of the Top 10 highest owned players this week due to his cheap price. I still think he’s well worth it, but feel free to fade in touranments if you’re worried about ownership percentage.