PGA DFS: Quicken Loans National Top Targets
It would have been forgivable for Jason Day to make a courtesy appearance at the Canadian Open, play some uninspired golf, and exit without a wimper. After all, it was only a few days before that he was an inch away from challenging several others in a playoff at St. Andrews.
Canadian Open Recap
For a while, it looked like Day might do just that. He was even par through the first nine holes while his competitors were tearing the course to shreds and posting low numbers. An eagle “chip” from 94 yards on the 10th hole ignited a solid round from that point on. Who knows what would have happened had Day not eagled that hole, but I’m thinking he might not have even been in contention.
Day held off a charging Bubba Watson, who birdied five of his last six holes. It wasn’t until Bubba missed an eagle chip on 18 that Day was assured the win. What a remarkable feat given what he has gone through over the last week.
Due to the late withdrawals, I only had four players written up last week. The good news is that we nailed the winner. There was no doubt in my mind that Day was the frontrunner, but many people seemed to be scared off by his quick turnaround from the Open Championship. Day finished with a ridiculous 143 DK points thanks to the win (obviously), three 3+ birdie streaks, and the all rounds under 70 bonus. He finished 12.5 ahead of Bubba, and 35 points (!) higher than the third highest finisher. Needless to say, if you had Day and 5/6 or 6/6 make the cut, you were in the money last week. Koepka looked like he would be in contention for a Top 5 finish, but faltered down the stretch (74) to finish in 18th. Scott Piercy made the first cut, but not the second. Kevin Chappell? Yikes. What a nightmare. We got the winner, but had Chappell tanking on the other end, so I’ll give myself another B+ for last week.
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Quicken Loans National
This event is being played at the former Presidents Cup venue at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Virginia. Although the Presidents Cup was here in 2005, it has never hosted a PGA event, so we won’t have any history to go from. It will play as a Par 71 and 7,385 yards (long), which will favor some of the longer hitters. Honestly, there isn’t too much more information out there regarding the course. Because of the lack of history and course knowledge, I’m favoring overall form and ability over specific stats.
Relevant Stats:
Total Driving
Greens in Regulation
Recent Form
All-Around Ranking
Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter so you can hound me if these don’t work out. Now, on to the picks!
Justin Rose
Odds to win: 7-1
DraftKings: $11,400
Victiv: $12,000
I really really wanted to put someone other than Rose at the top of this list, but everything pointed to him above Fowler. Rose is ninth in Total Driving and averages over 300 yards off the tee this year. He’s also ranked 27th in Greens in regulation, which should help him stay out of trouble. He is ranked third in birdie average, which means he can post some low numbers. The most telling “stat” for Rose is his seventh ranked All-Around ranking, showing that he doesn’t have many flaws. He is in excellent form, registering two Top Six finishes in his last three tournaments and a T27 at the US Open. Rose might be the “chalk” play of the week, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t the right play. Fading him for tournaments could pay off, but he’ll be a staple in my cash game lineups.
Also Consider: Rickie Fowler, Jimmy Walker
Will Wilcox
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $8,900
Victiv: $6,900
Before we get into the specifics of why Wilcox is a good play, let’s address the elephant in the room. Wilcox withdrew from last week’s tournament due to a wrist injury. He says he’s fine, but know that the risk is there. Now, on to the positives. Wilcox lights up the meter when it comes to key statistics. He’s fifth in Total Driving, sixth in Greens in Regulation (GIR), and FIRST in All-Around Ranking. Yes, that means he’s rated out better than anyone in golf in the All-Around ranking. He has consecutive Top Eight finishes including a runner-up at his most recent event. Assuming people are willing to stomach the risk, Wilcox will be highly owned, especially on Victiv where he is a near must-play at $6,900.
Also Consider: Gary Woodland, Tony Finau (GPP only)
Johnson Wagner
Odds to win: 45-1
DraftKings: $8,700
Victiv: $6,500
Many people that are new to golf DFS might have never heard of Johnson Wagner. Before you continue, check out his picture on DraftKings. I know that you will now draft him due to that amazing mustache and creepy grin, but I’ll try to back it up with more substantial evidence. Unlike several of the players featured here, Wagner isn’t a long bomber, but he makes up for his lack of distance with precision. He ranks 18th in GIR and had a streak earlier this year of 29 (!) consecutive greens hit. He is coming into this event in great form, racking up three straight Top 20s, including two out of three in the Top Ten. Fun fact, Wagner hasn’t had worse than a bogey in 18 rounds, spanning five tournaments. That might not seem important, but it shows that Wagner rarely shoots himself in the foot and always manages to avoid the huge numbers. Wagner should fly under the radar due to his limited length, making him a nice GPP play.
Also Consider: Shawn Stefani, Pat Perez
Daniel Summerhays
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $8,600
Victiv: $7,000
Each week, I seem to have a pick where the player doesn’t necessarily align well with the course of stats needed, but he just suits my fancy. So far, those picks haven’t worked out that well (Tony Finau from a few weeks back, Kevin Chappell last week), but I’m going to give it one more go. My “gut feel” play this week is Daniel Summerhays. He isn’t an excellent driver of the ball, nor is he immensely accurate in finding greens, but Summerhays has been playing the best golf of his life and is also one of the best putters on tour (eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting). Most will be on other plays in this price range, making Summerhays a nice contrarian option.
Also Consider: Harris English
Stewart Cink
Odds to win: 65-1
DraftKings: $7,800
Victiv: $6,300
Cink is a guy that I almost never target and quite frankly, I don’t think I’ve ever even played him in DFS before. There’s a first time for everything, and this week, I’ll have some exposure to Cink. Cink comes into this tournament red-hot, posting back-to-back Top 20 finishes, including a Top Five last week. Had it not been for a 73 on Friday, Cink might have been in contention for a win on Sunday. He is doing it in simple fashion by simply hitting greens and avoiding blowups. His Greens in Regulation is fourth on Tour. Cink’s knock is his limited length. A deep dive into his stats shows an interesting statistic. From approaches of greater than 200 yards (something he might encounter frequently due to the length of the course), Cink is ranked fourth in proximity to the hole. That might be reaching a little bit, but it is something to note. Cink is also one of the few players to have played this course in the Presidents Cup in 2005. I don’t put much stock in this as it was 10+ years ago, but it’s not a bad thing either. While I don’t think Cink has what it takes to win the event, I think he’ll challenge for a Top 10 finish, which is more than enough to satisfy his moderate asking price.
Also Consider: Andy Sullivan, Jason Bohn, William McGirt
Hudson Swafford
Odds to win: 65-1
DraftKings: $5,900
Victiv: $5,400
I highlighted Total Driving as an important stat, then went on to list a few guys that aren’t particularly long bombers. Makes sense right? Well, I’m getting back to it with Hudson Swafford. Swafford is ranked 10th in Total Driving and is one of the longest players on Tour. His GIR is 43rd and his All-Around Ranking is 39th, both of which are solid given his price. Speaking of his price, one of the major reasons he is priced at $5,900 on DraftKings is that Swafford had a meltdown on the final round at the Canadian Open. After playing good golf for three days, Swafford shot a 79 on Sunday. Let’s hope he can rebound from the terrible performance. Swafford has made three straight cuts, and six of his last seven. For someone at near minimum-price, we can’t ask for much more than that.
Also Consider: Scott Brown, Vaughn Taylor, Cameron Percy