PGA DFS Targets: AT&T Byron Nelson
Last week was a pretty solid week for our picks, although I feel somewhat bad because I essentially left out Chris Kirk at the last minute so I could get my “GPP special” Sean O’Hair in. O’Hair awesomely went +4 in his last four holes on Friday to miss the cut by a stroke, and Kirk, all he did was win. This week I’ll leave the fancy plays at home and just focus on writing up the most solid picks. Hopefully we’ll avoid last week’s fate and end up with another solid week.
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AT&T Byron Nelson
The tour stays in rainy Texas and heads just down the road to Irving for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. This is another longstanding event but one that has seen its fair share of course changes over the years. The event has been played at TPC Four Seasons exclusively for a while now, but there were extensive renovations done at the course before the 2009 event so I would not look at results before then. TPC Four Seasons is a 7200 yard, par 70 that typically plays as one of the tougher par 70 courses on tour. This isn’t shocking as the alterations made to it in 2009 essentially lengthened the course and made some of the tee shots much tougher than they already were. The course only carries two par 5s, but they are both reachable. The teeth of this course lies in the several challenging and long par 4s that await the players. Those who hit driver long off the tee here will be bringing much more trouble into play, and those who lay back will have tougher approaches. This course become even tougher when the wind gets up (which it has been known to do in Texas) and a winning score in the single digits is a possibility if the weather plays a factor.
For the week the statistical categories I’ve focused on are:
Par Breakers
Strokes Gained: Putting
Driving Distance
In terms of player trends, several different types of players have had success at this course. Bombers like Keegan Bradley and Jason Day have won here, but last year two short hitters, Brendon Todd and Mike Weir, rode hot putting to land first and second place finishes. One trend that seems worth noting is that players who rank high in birdie average and par breakers (percentage of scores of birdie or better) have typically done well here. The course plays tough so taking advantage of scoring opportunities when they arise seems key. I’ve also looked at both driving distance and strokes gained: putting this week. It seems like hot putting or great driving can both be used to tame this course, and so instead of choosing one category over the other I gave equal weight to both. Players who excelled in multiple categories were obviously more attractive to me. Finally, it should be noted that this course has seen its fair share of first time winners. A lengthy course history does not appear to be a huge factor this week and I didn’t shy away from first time visitors or those who have an average record here. Recent play was weighted more significantly and a larger factor in my picks this week.
Brandt Snedeker
Odds to win: 28-1
DraftKings: $10000
Victiv: $8700
There’s a lot of decisions to be made at the top of the salary ranges this week, but for my money the golfer who represents the best value is Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker doesn’t carry the flashy course history that the other players in his range do, but I think he warrants usage over many of them. Snedeker ranks third in tour in strokes gained: putting and like last year’s winner, Brendon Todd, also finds a lot of fairways when playing well. What I really like about Snedeker though is his ability to string together huge weeks until he finds the winner’s circle. Almost all of his seven wins on tour were preceded by past strong play, and after watching him play last week I think he might be ready to go on another hot streak. The bottom line for me is that when Snedeker is on I think he offers similar upside to those ranked above him in salary. After his near miss at Colonial, I’m willing to bet he offers up another great performance this week and am recommending him for use in fantasy lineups.
Gary Woodland
Odds to win: 40-1
DraftKings: $9200
Victiv: $8700
While I don’t love the increase in price on Woodland, I think it’s foolish to ignore him at this tournament. Woodland has shown some great play over the past month by finishing second at the match-play event and then landing a top 5 at Quail Hollow. What I really like about Woodland lately is that he’s been putting magnificently. After holing everything at the match play event, he then went on to lead the field in strokes gained: putting at Quail Hollow, a great sign since that is normally the weakest part of his game. Woodland’s had some success at this event and twice been at or near the lead after 54 holes, only to fail on Sunday. I think he’s primed for a big finish here and could be the play of the week.
Marc Leishman
Odds to win: 40-1
DraftKings: $8800
Victiv: $7900
Leishman is a good example of a player with converging positive trends. Leishman has played TPC Four Seasons six times since 2009 and only finished outside the top 12 once (a missed cut in 2011). He’s a long hitter who also is known for his ability to play well in the wind. Additionally, Leishman’s been playing much better recently after a slow start to the season (likely caused by his wife’s health issues). With his problems behind him, he’s now finished inside the top 30 in his past three events. Leishman is priced higher than normal this week but is still affordable at his price tag and a player who has many arrows pointed upwards. I think he’s a great cash game play and someone you should be able to anchor your lineups around.
Danny Lee
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $8200
Victiv: $6700
There’s two ways you can look at Danny Lee this week: either ignore him completely due to the price increase or hope his fantasy ownership decreases and rely on him for another big week. I personally think Lee is trending very well right and that he is a very good fit for this course. He ranks 35th in par breakers on tour, inside the top 50 in strokes gained: putting and has two top twenty finishes to his name at this event. Lee is a good young player who’s taken some time to find a consistent game but recently has put together an extremely solid stretch of golf. He’s now made four of his last five cuts and landed finishes of 10th and 13th at his last two events. Lee is also a Texas resident and should feel comfortable this week in the conditions. I hope he goes under-owned due to his new price and think he might be a fantastic contrarian play.
Russell Henley
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $7900
Victiv: $8000
Henley fits the bill of a player who should fit this course very well. Henley ranks inside the top 40 in driving distance, 7th in strokes gained: putting and for all intents and purposes has had a ridiculously solid year (he’s made 9 of his last 10 cuts). Henley has not played this course before, but I’m not sure it matters. He’s played par 70 courses exceptionally well in his career (both his wins came on par 70’s) and is another player who has proven he can handle windy conditions. I think Henley is a massive bargain on DraftKings but is someone I would use across the board this week. I see him as a player who could challenge for the win and a viable option in cash games and GPPs.
Brendan Steele
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $7000
Victiv: $7200
I’m hoping that Steele goes somewhat under the radar this week, because I absolutely love his price and the potential he brings to the table. After missing his first two cuts of the season, Steele rebounded beautifully at Quail Hollow by recording a top 10 finish and leading the field in greens in regulation for the week. Steele has played this course twice and never made the cut, but I’m willing to ignore his short and limited history because I think he’s someone who could really prosper at this course. Steele is long off the tee (top ten in driving distance) and also ranks inside the top 20 in par breakers. He also landed top 12 finishes at both the Valero Texas open and at the Honda Classic, two events where wind was a large factor. If the weather plays a role and scoring gets tough, I could see Steele possibly even winning this event; he’s my favorite GPP play of the week.
Morgan Hoffmann
Odds to win: 65-1
DraftKings: $7000
Victiv: $7200
Another player who should benefit from tougher conditions is Morgan Hoffmann. Hoffmann has had a consistent year on tour and has looked close to bagging his first win a couple times. He’s long off the tee and also ranks 25th in strokes gained: putting, making him a very good match for this course. Hoffmann has played this event twice and both times was in the mix near the leaders come Sunday. He’s likely one of the best value plays of the week, as he offers you a good statistical fit, decent recent form and a strong history on the course. Hoffmann is someone I’ll be looking to fit into as many cash game lineups as possible. I think he’s incredible value and allows you a lot of flexibility when building rosters.
DraftKings “Punt” – Carlos Ortiz
Odds to win: 150-1
DraftKings: $6400
There’s some interesting plays under $7000 this week on DraftKings, but for my money the best value of the bunch is Carlos Ortiz. Ortiz won on the web.com tour three times last season and has done nothing but play solid, consistent golf so far this year. Many may leave him out of their plans this week since this is his first time visiting the course, but given he ranks inside the top 25 in driving distance he seems like he might be a good fit. So far this year Ortiz has shown he can handle the tough courses extremely well. He placed inside the top 20 at the Valero Texas Open and also finished 20th at the tough Northern Trust Open. I think this week sets up great for Ortiz, who has now made his last three cuts and seems to be finding consistency of late. He’s my favorite play under $6500 by a wide margin.
Victiv “Punt” – D.A. Points
Odds to win: 200-1
Victiv: $5100
There’s a lot of not very good players under $6000 on Victiv this week, so even though I hate Points for his inconsistent play, I think he warrants consideration due to his history at this course. Points has played here six times since the renovations and only missed the cut once (last year). Outside that one missed cut, his worst finish was 40th, but he’s also landed finishes of 12th-7th and 3rd in that span. Points is a good putter who seems to get hot every once in a while and land a top finish (he has multiple wins on the PGA tour). He’s far from a lock this week, but as a seventh option on Victiv I like his salary and upside. If he hits, a top 20 is more than possible and that could save your week should one of your top players miss the cut.