PGA DFS Targets: Crowne Plaza Invitational
We saw how dominating Rory McIlroy can be last week, not just in real life but in fantasy golf as well. Even with a ginormous salary, McIlroy still managed to pay off for fantasy purposes as he simply ran over the field and set new scoring records. McIlroy does not plan to play in the USA until the US Open and it will be very interesting to see what his fantasy salary is for that weekend. He may need to beat everyone by 10 strokes (possible) to meet value that week.
Crowne Plaza Invitational
This week the tour heads back into Texas for a two-event swing that begins with the Crowne Plaza Invitational. This is a reduced field event and only 122 or so golfers will tee it up this week. This means that all the players competing will have a better chance at making the weekend, as the top 70 and ties will still be advancing. The Crowne Plaza event is one of the oldest on tour and is played at one of the oldest courses on tour as well, the Colonial Golf and Country Club. Colonial is a par 70 that typically plays around 7200 yards. It’s not overly long but does have some tough, longer par 4s and also a 630 yard par 5 for the players to contend with. Still, the main focus this week is accuracy, since the fairways and greens here are much smaller than normal. Players must be precise or risk venturing into the many well placed bunkers or water hazards that line the course.
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Given the layout of the course and the emphasis on accuracy this week, I’ve looked at the following stats:
Proximity to the hole
Par 4 scoring
Strokes gained: tee to green
Sand save percentage
Players will have to play the par 4s well this week. With limited par 5 scoring opportunities, the players will have to be strong throughout the rest of the course to keep pace. With par 4 scoring being the name of the game, proximity to the hole on approach shots will also be very key. Those who can put it close to the pin will simply be giving themselves more chances at birdies throughout the week. As Adam Scott proved last year, a strong tee to green game will also help. Playing consistently from the tee and fairways will help players avoid getting off target and staying out of trouble. Lastly, there’s a trend of strong bunker players doing well at this event. With lots of fairway and greenside bunkers on the course, it should come as no shock that payers who excel from the sand have done well here in the past, and I think sand save % is a relevant stat to consider when looking at who to choose for your lineups this week.
Kevin Na
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $9900
Victiv: $9200
Na may look overpriced this week, but I think he has just as much upside as any of the players ranked above him. Na has hands down been one of the top 5 players on tour over the past couple months. Over his past six events, his worst finish has been a tie for 20th, while he’s also managed to post results of 6th (twice), 9th, 10th and 12th in that same span. Na is also a great fit for Colonial. He ranks 26th in strokes gained tee to green and 19th in par 4 scoring. He has made 7 of his last 8 cuts at this event and is coming off a terrific week at the Players where he will be looking to put the disappointment of not making the playoff on Sunday behind him. I think this week sets up great for Na and have a feeling he might get back to the winner’s circle.
Brendon Todd
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $9100
Victiv: $8200
Brendon Todd is quickly becoming a must play for fantasy golf every week he tees it up. He’s now made 7 of his last 8 cuts on tour with his last blemish being a missed cut at Augusta (his first trip). Moreover, Todd has traditionally played these tighter, target style golf courses extremely well in his career and he recently tied for 4th on the similarly styled Hilton Head. Todd’s first visit to TPC Sawgrass two weeks ago saw him start off well, but fade as the tourney went on. This week however sees Todd get to take on a golf course which he is much more familiar with. This will be Todd’s third time playing the Crowne Plaza Invitational and last year he finished 5th. He is highly ranked in pretty much every category of importance this week and makes a perfect fit for this course. For fantasy purposes, he’s the perfect backbone for all your cash game lineups.
Ben Martin
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $8500
Victiv: $8200
I really like the price-tag this week for Martin, especially in relation to the rest of the field. Martin is coming off a tough 4th-place finish at the Players where he was tied for the lead going into the 72nd hole. He ended up bogeying and finishing just out of the playoff but added yet another quality finish to his resume. Martin is ranked top 30 in both strokes gained: tee to green and par 4 scoring. He’s someone who relies on accuracy and pure shot-making over power and has thrived in the past at courses like Colonial. Even though he doesn’t have a ton of experience playing on the course, he did finish 21st here last year on his debut and I think there are bigger things on the horizon for him here in the future. I see Martin as having just as much—if not more—upside than many players priced above him, so deploy him at will this week for fantasy purposes.
Sean O’Hair
Odds to win: 60-1
DraftKings: $8200
Victiv: $7000
O’Hair is my GPP special. He doesn’t fit in a ton of the statistical categories I’ve looked at for the week, but he is 3rd in par 4 scoring and more importantly has been playing extremely well over the past month or so. O’Hair has now reeled off finishes of 2nd-6th-12th in his past seven events and looks poised to return to the winner’s circle at some point in the near future. That some point could be this week. O’Hair’s top two finishes on the year have come at the Valspar and the RBC Heritage, two events with courses very similar in style to Colonial. O’Hair has a lot of experience playing in this event and should relish playing in his home state as well. I really like him as an overlooked GPP play this week, as I think he has the potential to win the tournament outright.
Jason Bohn
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $7300
Victiv: $6500
If you go by statistics alone, Jason Bohn could be in for a big week at Colonial. He currently ranks 6th in proximity to the hole, 16th in par 4 scoring and 43rd in strokes gained: tee to green. He’s also coming off an impressive week at the Wells Fargo event where he finished 9th. Bohn can be somewhat inconsistent, and he often follows up really good finishes with missed cuts, so I’m leaning towards using him more as a GPP play this week. However, he does have plenty of experience playing at Colonial and is a player who relies on accuracy and precision over power. The stars seemed aligned for a big week and his price makes him a supremely attractive fantasy play.
David Toms
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $7200
Victiv: $6100
David Toms represents the perfect type of golfer to target this week in my mind. He’s a veteran player with multiple tour wins who has played Colonial numerous times with a lot of success (won here in 2011). He’s also been playing quite well in the past month or so and is coming off a nice 13th-place finish at the Players. Toms currently ranks highly in both driving accuracy and proximity to the hole, while also being top 50 in par 4 scoring for the year. In terms of golfers who seem assured to put up at least a solid showing this week, I would have Toms very close to the top of that list. I think he makes for a great cash and GPP play this week and love the roster flexibility he provides.
John Peterson
Odds to win: 70-1
DraftKings: $6900
Victiv: $6300
There’s almost too much to like about John Peterson this week, so I’ll try to keep it brief. Peterson is a member at Colonial and is a Texas resident who knows this golf course extremely well. He played here once in 2013 on a sponsor’s exemption and shot a 64 in his opening round before going on to finish in 26th for the week. Fast forward to today and Peterson has now established himself as one of the most solid young players on tour. He’s made 14 of 16 cuts on the year and has played extremely solid golf in the past two months. He’s 16th on tour in par 4 scoring and 28th in strokes gained: tee to green. For his price, I expect Peterson to be the most highly owned golfer of the week and view him as the must play of the week for cash game purposes. He simply offers too much value at his reduced price-tag to ignore.
DraftKings “Punt” – Bryce Molder
Odds to win: 200-1
DraftKings: $6000
I think Molder makes for an extremely solid play given his price. He’s a great putter who is currently ranked 5th on tour in strokes gained: putting and therefore brings a level of consistency that most players at his price range simply don’t provide. He also has a nice history of playing at Colonial, as he’s made 3 of 4 cuts and also finished 5th here in 2010. I like the fact that Molder finished 15th at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago, as the course there is quite similar in style to Colonial. For $6000 he provides a great shot of getting you four rounds of play and some potential upside as well, perfect for a stars and scrubs style lineup.
Victiv “Punt” – Michael Thompson
Odds to win: 200-1
Victiv: $5500
Thompson is typically a very hit-or-miss option for fantasy purposes, but as a former winner on tour he does have a lot of potential when he’s playing well. Even though his stats don’t really jump off the page, Thompson is a terrific putter who’s always thrived on older-styled golf courses which de-emphasize power. He’s now played Colonial three times and made the cut here each time, while finishing 10th here last year. He played very solidly last week and is someone I’d look to use as a 6th or 7th option on Victiv – he carries more upside than a traditional “punt” play.
Notes: It will be interesting to see how Jordan Spieth rebounds this week. The potential is always there for him to put on another clinic and blow away the field, but I’m personally not expecting that to happen and think he’s simply too expensive. I think he might be a better play next week at the Byron Nelson. Zach Johnson also has a great history at this event, but as the second-highest priced player of the week I’m avoiding him on DraftKings for the most part; he’s much more playable on Victiv though. One last player who could be a great value play is Steve Stricker. He’s a past winner and looked to be rounding into form at the Players – he’s also much cheaper than most of the other top plays.