PGA DFS Targets: FedEx St. Jude Classic
It was nice to get back to normal last week and not have to look at the weather forecast once. Even though a lot of chalk plays did well last week (Justin Rose, Matsuyama, Spieth) the winner of the event—David Lingmerth—actually ended up being a player almost no one owned for fantasy golf purposes. The winners of many major fantasy GPPs ended up not even having him on their teams. Even though Lingmerth is by no means a huge star, he’s a solid player who had posted some good results at big events before. Lingmerth’s win should also serve as a good lesson for fantasy players not to simply write-off half the field each week. There’s a lot of upside in rostering solid players that will be extremely low-owned, and making sure you consider as many players as possibly for your lineups will give you a better chance of finding those future “Lingmerths” in the rough.
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The FedEx St. Jude Classic
This is the last week of fantasy golf before the US Open and some pretty big fantasy golf tournaments are on the horizon. This week is also important for the players because many use this event as a warmup for the big event itself. The St. Jude Classic is played at TPC Southwind in Memphis. It’s a par 70 course that measures in at roughly just over 7200 yards. The course isn’t super long but in 2004 it was lengthened and “toughened” significantly. Trees were added, as were bunkers and many holes were made to play longer. Since then the course has actually played quite tough and no one style has really dominated here. It’s a pretty good all-around test of golf and I expect the winning score to be in the low double digits. I’m definitely emphasizing recent form over course history this week as a tough course like TPC Southwind will demand a player have all the facets of his game in good order if he’s to have success on it.
For this week I’ve also considered the following stats:
Par 4 scoring
Greens in Regulation
Approach Proximity
Driving Distance
TPC Southwind has water on 10 of the holes and features smaller than average Bermuda greens. This means that approach proximity and greens in regulation should be extremely important this week. Many of the past winners have ranked inside the top 3 the week they won in greens in regulation. Avoiding the hazards here is key and there’s no better way of doing that than hitting your approaches close to the pin and on the green. Additionally, with only two par 5s on the course, players will have to navigate more than their fair share of par 4s. Again, players who have had a lot of success at this event have traditionally been ranked highly in par 4 scoring for the year and that is another great stat to start your research with. Finally, while I don’t think driving distance is the only key to success this week, many long hitters have performed well here and there’s an obvious advantage for some off the tee. Because of this I’ve looked at driving distance, along with course history this week, as a kind of tie breaker when making my picks.
Webb Simpson
Odds to win: 20-1
DraftKings: $11100
Victiv: $9100
Webb is a great player to target this week in all daily fantasy golf formats. Simpson has been striking the ball great all year but has had some trouble with his putter. Still, he took second in his last appearance at the Wells Fargo and will be using this week as his final tune up before the US Open. Simpson ranks inside the top twenty in approach proximity and greens in regulation, which gives you a good idea of just how solidly he’s been hitting the ball. He was third here last year when coming in on much worse form and looks like he’ll have a great chance of getting back in the winner’s circle this week. He’s my top target of all the high salaried players this week.
Harris English
Odds to win: 28-1
DraftKings: $10700
Victiv: $8500
While I initially had Paul Casey slated for this spot (he withdrew), I do think Harris English is another top range player who should be considered for this event. English’s fantasy salary has certainly gone up this week and I’m sure that will make him lower owned than he probably should be. English went through a mid-season drought but has now played decent golf in back to back weeks. English fits this course perfectly and actually won this event back in 2013. Even with his poor showing in 2015 English still ranks inside the top 50 in both approach proximity and par 4 scoring. While I don’t trust English enough to recommend him as a cash game play, I do think he makes a terrific swerve off the sure to be more popular, top-range players and a great GPP play. He should be motivated to chase the win this week and could pay off hugely if other top players miss the cut.
Brian Harman
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $8400
Victiv: $7500
Harman is my darkhorse to win this week. There’s not a ton to like about Harman’s statistics this year and the truth is he’s been pretty inconsistent for most of 2015. However, he’s really picked up his play in the last month or so and he’s now recorded top ten’s in two of his last four events. Even better is the fact that Harman appears to be hitting the ball extremely well and has ranked inside the top 5 in greens in regulation in his past two events. Harman finished sixth at this event last year and for all intents and purposes looks like a great fit for the course. When he’s on he can be deadly accurate with his irons and he may only be a hot putting week away from his second win on tour. He’s a great fantasy play this week.
Shawn Stefani
Odds to win: 55-1
DraftKings: $8200
Victiv: $7700
I expect Stefani to be one of the more popular plays in this weaker field event and for good reason. There’s not a whole lot of players you can really trust this week after you venture past the top level of players and so Stefani, and his consistent play over the past two months, sticks out like a sore thumb. Over his past eight events Stefani has made seven cuts and only finished outside the top 26 on two occasions. Those are very solid numbers for a player priced well below the top talent. Additionally, Stefani has some strong course history at this event, having finished 7th in 2013 when he actually held a share of the lead for portions of the weekend. I can’t argue against Stefani as a great cash game anchor this week, although he is someone you might want to think about swerving off of in some GPP lineups, since he’ll likely be one of the more highly owned plays.
Jason Bohn
Odds to win: 70-1
DraftKings: $7800
Victiv: $7400
Jason Bohn might actually be one of the best values of the week when you consider how solid he’s played in his past few events. Bohn just missed out on the win at the Colonial when he fired a final round 63 to finish one stroke back in second. Last week he battled back to make the cut after starting poorly on a course where he’s never really had success. However the course this week is much more up Bohn’s alley and in this weak field I expect that he might just be in the hunt for the title once again. When Bohn is on, he is one of the most accurate players in the game and he current ranks third in approach proximity on tour and 17th in greens in regulation. He should have no trouble attacking the smaller greens this week and may be able to use his accuracy to gain an edge on the field. Overall, one of my favorite fantasy plays and someone I’ll be using in a lot of lineups.
Blayne Barber
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $7400
Victiv: $6300
Lately many people have been using young rookies Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger every week in fantasy golf. However with both of them out of the field this week, Blayne Barber is another rookie who has some results on his ledger that should also make you stand up and take notice. With his eighth-place finish at the Zurich Classic, Barber now has four finishes of T12 or better on the season. He’ll be making his debut at this event but I’m not worried. He finished ninth earlier in the year on a similar course at the OHL Classic, 12th at the tough Riviera golf course, and just qualified for the US Open with some great play in qualifying. Barber is shaping up to be one of my favorite picks of the week, and in a weak field he offers you an affordable price-tag and upside many payers do not.
William McGirt
Odds to win: 100-1
DraftKings: $7000
Victiv: $6600
In a weak and somewhat unpredictable field, I think it’s important to fish out the most reliable plays possible and ride them hard this week. Enter Willy McGirt. McGirt’s a player who has made his living posting solid if unspectacular results at some weaker field events. He’s played this event four times and has a 13th-place finish to his credit here from back in 2012. McGirt’s also coming in on the heels of three straight made cuts and had a decent showing at the Memorial where he landed in 38th. He’s currently ranked inside the top 50 in both par 4 scoring and proximity to the hole, and when he is on is a player who relies on accuracy over pure power, which should make him a reliable option for this week. I think McGirt’s price-tag offers you great fantasy value and he should be a great option for your DFS cash games.
Charles Howell III
Odds to win: 100-1
DraftKings: $6800
Victiv: $7300
I expect Howell III to be another very popular play this week. When Howell is on and playing well, he simply makes a lot of cuts. This week, in a large field with lots of unknowns, a player like that will definitely be a hot commodity for fantasy purposes. Howell III went through a kind of mini slump like he always does after the West Coast swing but bounced back last week at the Memorial where he finished strong after a poor Thursday round. Howell has made his last five cuts at this event and even posted a third-place finish here back in 2011. Even with his average play of late Howell still ranks 20th in Greens in Regulation on tour and his consistent tee to green game should help him avoid lots of the trouble on this course. A great reliable option for a decent price.
DraftKings “Punt” – Jeff Overton
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $6100
Overton is the consummate tour grinder. He’s priced extremely cheap on DraftKings this week and in a weaker field, at a course he’s had some success at in the past, he instantly becomes an interesting play for me. Overton has now made his last three cuts on tour and actually played very well last week, finishing in 26th on a pretty tough course. Overton is 7-for-7 in cuts made at TPC Southwind and has two top 10s to his name here as well as a T13. I don’t expect Overton to get you a huge finish, but at his price tag he really only needs to make the cut to pay off. He is trending in the right direction, so there is more upside than usual this week. He’s a great option to use for stars and scrubs lineups and as a GPP punt.
Victiv “Punt” – John Merrick
Odds to win: 150-1
Victiv: $5600
Merrick is a former winner on tour and someone I’ve been tracking for fantasy purposes this year, because he’s almost always priced very cheaply. Merrick has been trending in the right direction lately and his last event saw him post a 16th place at the Wells Fargo event. He’s also posted very solid results at this course—having made his last 6 cuts at this event—and has best finishes of escond (2012) and 11th (2011). He’s someone I think makes for a perfect 6th or 7th option on Victiv simply because you know there is upside there. Even if he doesn’t make the cut he won’t sink your lineup, but he might save it should your top plays miss out on the weekend.