PGA DFS Targets: PGA Championship
The best players in the world will pay visit to Whistling Straits in Sheboygan, Wisconsin (Sheboygan is really fun to say. I know you just said it out loud to yourself). It will play as a 7,501 yard, Par 72. This is quite a lengthy course, but it is even more well known for its bunkers. There will be approximately 1,000 bunkers in play this week, which is a ridiculous number compared to the norm.
As expected for a major, the field is loaded with talent. DraftKings is running another Millionaire Maker tournament, which should attract plenty of new players to DFS Golf. Pricing is relatively loose, so it will be possible to build some potent combinations of players. All player salaries below will be DraftKings’ prices.
Let’s take a look at some of the most pertinent stats for this week.
Relevant Stats:
Driving Distance (Driving Accuracy will also be considered)
Ball Striking
Greens in Regulation
Scrambling / Sand Save %
Note: Strokes Gained: Putting is always important and should be considered week in and week out.
I highlighted both driving distance and driving accuracy because I believe both will be equally important. Although most will focus on just the distance, distance in the wrong spots (bunkers, rough, etc.) will leave golfers in a world of hurt for their approach shots. People that can hit the fairways will be able to attack the greens with better approach shots, as some will be forced to use hybrids and woods from the fairway. This course has been proclaimed as a “Ball Striker’s course”, so who am I to argue with the experts? Greens in Regulation % is always important, but it’s even more important when trying to stay out of trouble. Speaking of trouble, all players will be finding it this week, thus the importance of Scrambling and Sand Saves. The ridiculous number of bunkers has been well documented and should cause havoc on players who can’t get up and down to save some pars.
Chalk or Contrarian?
Last week, I dedicated this segment to “To Fade or Not to Fade Jordan Spieth”, but I didn’t want to duplicate it again this week, so I’ve decided to dedicate it to a discussion around chalk plays versus going against the grain. If you are entering the Millionaire Maker tournament on Draftkings, there is plenty of merit to fading the consensus plays. With that many entries, it is almost impossible to have a unique lineup where you use all of your salary while also using industry consensus picks. Does that mean you should put together 20 lineups while leaving $3K on the table? No! It just means that each dollar you leave on the table increases your chances of having a unique lineup. For cash games, you should almost always use all of your salary, unless you’re in love with your players and happen to have some left over. As for these picks, they are my favorite picks. Many of them will be considered chalky, but these are the “Expert Picks”, not the “Contrarian Picks” or “GPP Picks”. While you can argue whether or not the “Expert” part is valid (sometimes I wonder that myself…), just know that these are my favorite plays, regardless of game type. Good luck to you all! Hope someone can take down the million!
Jason Day ($10,800)
Similar to last week, I have no problems with going with Jordan Spieth this week. The pricing is loose enough to be able to fit him in a few lineups. For my money, I just like a few other guys slightly more. I had already written up Dustin Johnson, but his recent form and late round collapses have me worried about him. Day is third in Driving Distance, trailing only the aforementioned Johnson and Bubba Watson (see below). This length will be a nice advantage on such a long course, but he’ll have to be accurate as well. He’s 32nd in Greens in Regulation (GIR), which will be essential at this tournament. The thing that separates Day from the other elite options in his price range is his scrambling (fifth) and sand save (14th) abilities. There are about 1,000 bunkers on this course, so all players will find at least a few of them. Day has proven to be one of the best at recovering from sticky situations. Day gives you $1,700 back in your pocket over Spieth on DraftKings, which can be used to make significant upgrades to your other golfers. He’ll also increase your chances of having a unique lineup, as Spieth will likely be one of the highest owned players.
Also Consider: Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson
Note: Many will ask how I feel about Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, and Justin Rose. I don’t want the risk of Rory, I don’t think Scott can win it (Top 5 possibly), and Rose’s putting stroke looked really shaky last week.
Bubba Watson ($9,900)
Love him or hate him, Bubba Watson plays some entertaining golf. He was at his finest this past weekend when he blitzed the course for a final round 66 at the WGC-Bridgestone, just missing a playoff with Shane Lowry. That’s back-to-back runner-up finishes for Watson, who is arguably playing the best golf on Tour right now. Here are some ridiculous rankings for Watson this year: Driving Distance: second, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: first, Strokes Gained: Total: first, and Scoring Average: second. If I had covered the name and read those rankings off to you, you would have likely assumed that those numbers could only belong to Jordan Spieth. In addition to his incredible length and creativity, Watson has also greatly improved his putting. His Strokes Gained: Putting is 26th, which is good enough considering how excellent the rest of his game has been. Many will point to the fact that this course has some “Links Golf” elements to it, and that Bubba hates courses like this, but Watson is a competitor in the best form of his life. I expect him to compete for a victory with his usual abrasive swagger.
Also Consider: Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler
Henrik Stenson ($9,700)
For whatever reason, Henrik Stenson never seems to make his way into my lineups. This week, however, I will have plenty of shares in him for a variety of reasons. First (pun intended), Stenson is ranked #1 on Tour in Total Driving, Ball Striking, and Greens in Regulation, three of the most critical stats this week. He’s the only player all season to grade out so highly in the stats I’ve identified as key. Second, he’s ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. The only knocks on Stenson could be his sand save and scrambling percentages, but this could be mitigated if Stenson can keep up his elite GIR %. Oh yea, Stenson isn’t too shabby with the putter either. He is ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting. His form this season has been inconsistent, but he has also shown the ability to rack up Top 5s when he gets hot. His sixth place finish at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational could be the start of another hot streak. Stenson should be one of the lower-owned expensive players, so a great performance could separate you from the field in larger GPPs.
Also Consider: Louis Oosthuizen
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000)
I wrote up Matsuyama last week and he rewarded me by stinking it up for three rounds before turning in an impressive 66 on Sunday. Had there been a cut, Matsuyama wouldn’t have made it, but it also showed his ability to post a low number. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Total Driving. He’s also seventh in Ball Striking and 19th in Scrambling, so he appears to be made for this course. Before his 37th place at the WGC-Bridgestone, he had a ridiculous nine straight Top 25 finishes, including three Top 5s. While he hasn’t yet won this season, and it’s unlikely he’ll do so this week, he’s almost a lock to make the cut due to his consistency. Many will go away from him after being burned last week, but Matsuyama makes for a great cash game play at an affordable price.
Also Consider: Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar
Brooks Koepka ($7,800)
Here is my quote from last week’s writeup. “There’s no denying it, I have a man crush on Brooks Koepka. I think I have featured him every week that he’s been in the field, and he hasn’t really let us down yet.” I went back and double-checked and sure enough, I have featured Koepka in every single article. I will continue to do so until they raise his price to an appropriate level. Koepka is sixth in Driving Distance, fifth in SG:P, and 19th in Greens in Regulation. Koepka’s potential flaw on this course? His scrambling is 150th, which could be a serious problem if he is missing greens. Other than that (and his potentially high ownership), there is little reason to not like Koepka. I mentioned that Koepka hasn’t let me down yet, right? Let’s read off his game log, shall we? He has finished sixth, 18th, 10th, 18th, and 3rd in his last five tournaments. Like Matsuyama above, I expect Koepka to be highly-owned, despite the loaded field. Fading him in tournaments could pay off, but he’ll be a staple in my cash lineup.
Also Consider: Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, Paul Casey, Keegan Bradley
Danny Willett ($7,200)
There are several great, well-known choices around this $7.5K mark including Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry (well-known after last week), and Keegan Bradley. Most will flock to these names, but Danny Willett might be my favorite of the bunch. Information on him is harder to come by due to the fact that he plays the majority of his golf on the European tour. A look at his European stats shows how impressive Willett has been this season. Willet’s 72% GIR% on the European Tour would rank fifth on the PGA Tour. He isn’t a long-bomber by any means, but he also isn’t Kevin Na either (sorry Kevin, had to pick on someone). His sand save percentage of 73% would rank first on the PGA Tour. Some of these stats are potentially inflated due to some easier courses, but the European Tour is no joke. Lastly, Willett is in fine form right now. He has three consecutive Top 20 performances including a victory at the Omega European Masters. The majority of these picks have been popular plays around the industry, but Willett could be the low-owned player who makes a difference in your lineups.
Also Consider: Kevin Kisner, David Lingmerth, Justin Thomas
Robert Streb ($6,800)
I debated between a few choices at this spot. I knew I was going to get blasted for going “chalk” with this pick regardless of my selection, so I wanted to give the cheapest option to allow paying up for other players. Streb might be one of the five highest-owned players this week, even with the casual player likely skipping over him. His recent form has been off the charts, posting four consecutive Top 20 finishes, including two in the Top 5. He ranks 11th in GIR, 19th in Ball Striking, and 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He isn’t known as a long bomber, but his 40th ranked Driving Distance is well above average. For a price like Streb’s you are normally just looking for a made cut, but Streb will look to continue the hot streak and challenge for another Top 20 finish.
Also Consider: Tony Finau (prepare to tilt), Russell Henley, Jason Bohn