PGA DFS Targets: Players Championship
Hope everyone enjoyed their week off from fantasy golf. It’s a shame the major sites cannot incorporate match play into some kind of fantasy scoring as playing fantasy golf during the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup would be amazing. Still, it’s nice to have a weekend off as golf is nearly a year round sport now and this time of year there are major events around every corner, which brings us to this week…
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
The Players Championship
This is one of the biggest events of the year that isn’t an official “major”. The Players Championship features one of the deepest (if not the deepest) fields of the year. It’s played in Florida on TPC Sawgrass, a course that was designed expressly to host this event, and in an age where courses are constantly being redone, revamped, and lengthened it’s curious to see that TPC Sawgrass has largely remained the same throughout the years. I personally think this speaks to how well built the course really is. TPC Sawgrass was designed by Pete Dye (who also did Hilton Head and TPC Louisiana) and comes in as a par 72 that plays approx. 7200 yards. It challenges players in ways other than length and the fact that a variety of different types of golfers have won here shows its well-roundedness. The course features several doglegs, many smaller than normal greens that are protected by water or sand and some eccentric and challenging hole designs. Its signature hole is the 17th, a short par 3 island green that always seems to be good for a quad bogey or two during the week (especially if the wind is up).
With the way the course challenges players, driving prowess is not as big a deal this week. However, given the setup of the course the player’s iron and approach games will be tested with regularity. With that in mind I’ve focused on the following stats for the week:
Approach Proximity
Approach Prox. 150>
Scrambling
GIR
With the player’s iron and wedge game being of primary importance this week the ones who can hit the greens with the most consistency, give themselves good looks at birdie and stay out of the water will be the ones who land you the most fantasy points. Finally, while all types of players have had success at this course, looking at a list of past winners shows us that banking a ton of experience playing this course can be a large help in future years. So while there may be some great young players coming in hot this week, it might be prudent to bypass some of them for more experienced players who are more familiar with the varied intricacies of this course.
Jordan Spieth
Odds to win: 9-1
DraftKings: $12800
Victiv: $12000
At this point there’s not a need for a ton of analysis around Jordan Spieth, here’s all you need to know for this week: he’s pricy but you can build solid lineups around him, the course suits him, he’s one of the two or three best players in the world right now. Oh and last year he finished 4th at this event, even with a final round 76. I see Spieth as the most owned golfer this week and pretty much an impossible fade in cash games. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs but with all the lower priced talent this week that’s still a risky proposition. I’d recommend at least some exposure and wouldn’t fault anyone who refused to make a lineup without him this week.
Jimmy Walker
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $8800
Victiv: $8400
Walker always seems to be way under-priced in major tournaments and this week is no different. There’s few players who have had more wins or a better record over the past two years than Walker but he still remains only the 13th highest golfer on DraftKings and the 9th on Victiv. Walker has played this event each of the past 5 years and made the cut 4 times. Last year he closed with a marvelous 65 and ended up finishing 6th. I like Walker’s progression on this course and the fact he might be coming in under the radar after a sub-par last couple of events. He ranks highly in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards and for his price gives you unlimited upside as he could very easily win this tournament.
Rickie Fowler
Odds to win: 66-1
DraftKings: $8400
Victiv: $7600
After his missed cut at the Zurich Classic I have a feeling Rickie Fowler will not be a popular play this week, but sometimes the best time to use a player is when you know everyone else will be off them. Fowler has a spotty record at this event but it does include a second place finish so he’s obviously fairly comfortable playing here. Recently Rickie tweeted out that he was swinging great but just needed some putts to start dropping (he’s ranked low in strokes gained putting this year). Well he putted pretty well last week and it’s conceivable that trend follows him here. I really like Fowler as a GPP play this week and think he’s someone who could easily surprise and land a top 5 finish.
Zach Johnson
Odds to win: 70-1
DraftKings: $8200
Victiv: $7200
If you take away his one missed cut at Hilton Head, Zach Johnson has really played some pretty decent golf lately. His iron play of late has been phenomenal and even though he lost his group in a playoff, his approach game still looked very locked in last week during the match play. Experience is also very key in this event and Zach has a ton of experience playing this event and also loves the course. He’s made 9 of his past 10 cuts at the Players (which includes a 2nd place finish) and his price is a lot cheaper than other players with similar history and background. I think he offers a low floor, pretty decent upside and think you should take advantage where possible.
Brendon Todd
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $7300
Victiv: $6400
Although I am trying to target experienced players this week I am definitely making an exception for Brendon Todd. Todd’s a very solid player whose game seems like it will be very well-suited for TPC Sawgrass. Todd’s an exceptional scrambler and putter whose ball striking has looked very good in recent weeks. He is coming into the event on the back of some pretty good form as he finished 4th at Hilton Head, another event which caters to those who are hitting their approaches and short irons well. I don’t expect Todd to win this week but I do think he may be able to land you a top ten finish, and at his price that would be an exceptional result.
Ian Poulter
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $7400
Victiv: $6900
Poulter might be coming off of a sub-par match play performance last weekend but in general his play in 2015 has been extremely solid. He nearly won the Honda Classic at the similar styled “PGA National” and he also had the best weekend of anyone at the Masters by shooting a pair of 67’s and finishing 6th. Poulter’s game is more precision than power and this course has suited him fairly well in the past; in the last 10 years he’s made 7 cuts and also has a second place finish to his name. I think Poulter is definitely someone who could rise up to challenge for the title this week and his price is very affordable on both sites. He’s a great all-around fantasy pick this week.
Morgan Hoffmann
Odds to win: 100-1
DraftKings: $6900
Victiv: $6000
Hoffmann is a young American player that sometimes gets forgotten because of the hype surrounding Jordan Spieth. However he had a prestigious amateur career and has really been showing some solid results in big events as of late. Since the Honda Classic, Hoffmann has made 5 of 6 cuts and recorded finishes of 4th and 9th at separate events. Hoffmann has also played well at TPC Sawgrass (17th here last year) and other Pete Dye courses. Even without a long history to fall back on I really feel like Hoffmann is a very solid option this week as he’s simply been playing extremely solid golf of late. He’s someone I would not be afraid to use in cash games or GPPs given his fairly modest price.
Victiv “Punt” – Chris Stroud
Odds to win: 250-1
Victiv: $5000
Stroud is a very solid player who seems to perform his best when he is in Florida. He’s posted many of his best results in the state and had some very good results at TPC Sawgrass as well. He’s made four of 5 cuts at this event and also landed himself two top 12 finishes. Stroud started the season poorly but has picked his play up as of late. He’s a solid ball striker who relies on accurate approaches when he’s on and I could easily see him putting together a decent finish and being one of the better value picks of the week. He’s my favorite play at his price range on Victiv.
DraftKings “Punt” – Matt Every
Odds to win: 225-1
DraftKings: $5900
Every is a phenomenal ball striker when he’s on and being a shorter hitter this course really does play to the strengths of his game. Every is without a doubt an inconsistent player at times, but he seems to be showing a little more maturity this year and did follow up his recent win with a 18th at Hilton Head (another course requiring precision). At 5900 on DraftKings he’s a great option since he offers a lot of upside this week given the fact he’s from Florida, familiar with the course and really been playing well the past two months. He’s my favorite pick for a cheap GPP play there this week.
Notes: I like Lee Westwood for all the same reasons I like Zach Johnson this week, reasonably priced, playing well and great course history. Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia have both made the cut here every time the past ten years they’ve played, great stats for those thinking of using them in cash games. Daniel Berger might be the only other first time player I’d consider this week, he’s from Florida and has played TPC Sawgrass as an amateur and played it well.