PGA DFS Targets: RBC Heritage
Well that was both an exciting yet anti-climactic week of golf. Anti-climactic from the sense that Jordan Spieth essentially ended the tournament after his first round on Thursday, yet exciting from the sense that DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker really delivered some of the best sweats all year for participants. With huge sweats for overnight leaders, to huge comebacks on the back nine on Sunday (thank you Phil bunker magic), that really was a fantasy golf tradition like no other.
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I’m happy to announce that I’m going to continue to bring you my thoughts on the field each week and give you a good set of targets and stats with which to begin your research. Fantasy golf is growing and the meat of the season has just begun, so let’s get rolling…
The RBC Heritage
The RBC Heritage is a well-established event that has almost always fallen on the weekend after the Masters. It’s a very fitting follow up to the Masters in that it takes the players to another idyllic setting, this time on the coast of South Carolina. The RBC is played at Harbour Town Golf Links, a Pete Dye designed course that features small greens, narrow fairways and also some exposure to the sea (wind). Harbour Town is a par 71 and also a much shorter course than the players have seen the past few weeks. Still, its many doglegs, tights greens and well-placed hazards mean it can’t really be overpowered. This is a week where power is really not an advantage at all.
Some key stats I’ve looked at this week include:
Proximity to the hole (fairway)
Scrambling
Strokes gained putting
Driving accuracy
Course History
I really want to emphasize how important course history is this week. Many players either seem to love or hate this course and finding those players who “love it” will be key. This is a week where I would not be afraid to emphasize course form (history at the course) over relative form (how a player has played in their past few events this year). With small greens, scrambling and strokes gained putting will both be key. All you need to do is look at a list of past winners, and you will see some of the best putters and scramblers on tour.
Zach Johnson
Odds to win: 20-1
DraftKings: $10800
Victiv: $9800
Zach Johnson’s a player that I like to use sparingly for fantasy purposes. When he is on, he is really on, but when he’s not he’s often overpriced and rarely pays off his salary with a big finish. However, I think this week sets up great for a vintage ZJ performance. Johnson has gone 9-20-9 in his last three starts and that includes his best ever finish at Augusta since his win in 2007. Johnson is very accurate with the driver and his irons when he is on and ranks in the top 25 in driving accuracy. If he gets hot with the putter (and he putted quite well at Augusta), he should be one of the top fantasy scorers for the week.
Ian Poulter
Odds to win: 25-1
DraftKings: $10000
Victiv: $9100
Poulter does not have the crazy good history at Harbour Town that some of the other top players do, but I am still confident in his chances for the week. Poulter ranks within the top 40 or 50 in most statistically categories I have given attention to and his recent form shows just how re-committed to the game he has become. Over the weekend at Augusta, Poulter was arguably the best player in the field, as he shot a collective -10 for Saturday and Sunday, and I think he can carry that momentum into another top finish at Harbour Town. Poulter came close to winning at a similarly styled course at the Honda Classic earlier in the year, and I won’t be shocked if he breaks his winless drought this week.
Russell Henley
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $9100
Victiv: $8300
Henley is a great young player that thrives at windy golf courses with tight fairways like Harbour Town. He’s already won at the Sony Open and also finished top 5 at the MacGladrey Classic – both events which feature wind exposed courses that favour precision over power. Henley has been on a roll of late. He led the field in greens in regulation at the Shell Houston Open and then landed his best finish ever at Augusta last week, finishing 21st. Henley finished 6th at Harbour Town in 2013 and for all intents and purposes, should really excel at this course. I’m labelling him for another big fantasy performance and won’t be shocked if he challenges for the outright win as well.
Russell Knox
Odds to win: 75-1
DraftKings: $7300
Victiv: $7100
Knox has proven to be one of the most consistent young golfers on the PGA the past few years. He ranks 10th in proximity and also ranks highly in driving accuracy and putting. Knox played at Harbour Town last year for the first time and finished 9th, which I think might be a harbinger of things to come. Knox has excelled at other wind exposed golf courses like PGA National, and I like him to come into this event fresh off a couple weeks rest and ready to chase his first win on tour. At his fantasy price, there’s a lot of upside for the flexibility he provides.
Brendon Todd
Odds to win: 85-1
DraftKings: $7000
Victiv: $7100
My other really well-priced young player in this price range is Brendon Todd. Todd had a really disappointing Masters and I’m hoping he will be overlooked by many DFS players this week as a result. Todd fits this course in almost every statistical way possible. He’s 9th in scrambling, 18th in proximity and also ranks highly in driving accuracy and strokes gained putting. What I really like about Todd is his history of bouncing back from a missed cut. The past two years, Todd has never missed two cuts in a row, and his first win on tour last year occurred on the back of a missed cut. I think he will be itching to leave the bad memories of last week behind him, and Harbour Town is the perfect course for him to do it at.
John Huh
Odds to win: 90-1
DraftKings: $6700
Victiv: $6300
Huh is my favorite under-the-radar (or so I hope) play of the week. Huh has been very, very consistent this year. He’s made his last five cuts on tour and has two top twenties within that span. Even better, Huh’s game is perfect for what Harbour Town offers, as he currently ranks in the top 25 in driving accuracy, scrambling and strokes gained putting. Huh finished 3rd at Harbour Town last year, which means he may not go as low-owned as I hope he does, but he still seems like one of the best value picks on the board this week. I would deploy him at will as the roster flexibility he offers is too good to pass up.
Victiv Under $5000 Play: Ricky Barnes
Odds to win: 200-1
Victiv: $4600
On Victiv, if you want to go low, and by low I mean cheap, this might be a decent week to deploy Ricky Barnes in a few lineups. Barnes has a nice track record at Harbour Town, having made 4 of 5 cuts at the event while landing two top 5 finishes in that span. Barnes game is erratic so you never know what he will bring, but there is potential as he typically does land a top finish or two every year. This course suits his eye and his price allows all kinds of possibilities.
DraftKings Under $5000 Play: Ben Crane
Odds to win: 250-1
DraftKings: $4400
Crane is priced at $4400 on DraftKings, and while he is not exactly the most consistent player on the planet, the course this week does set up well for his methodical and conservative game. The biggest reason I wanted to point Crane out to readers though is his record at Harbour Town. In 8 appearances he has only missed the cut once. Quite simply, if you’re trying to make a stud filled lineup on DraftKings, he might be your best punt option as his chances of making the cut are much higher than normal this week.
Final Notes: The great histories of Luke Donald and Jim Furyk at this event really shouldn’t be ignored. If either were playing semi-decently right now, I would have included them in my picks. I still won’t be shocked if one or both lands in the top ten. I also think one of the best value plays this week might be Ben Martin. He’s cheap, was 5th three weeks ago at Bay Hill and 3rd at this event last year. He makes for a great speculative GPP play in my mind. Charley Hoffman comes into the event in great form after finishing in 9th at Augusta – his track record at Harbour Town is also nice and I expect he’ll be highly owned for fantasy.