PGA DFS Targets: Sony Open
The big decision coming into last week was whether or not Jordan Spieth was worth the ridiculous price tag placed on him by DraftKings.
Hyundai Tournament of Champions Review
I answered with a timid “no”, but I couldn’t have been more wrong. Spieth blitzed the course and competition to an absurd -30 for the week, winning by a comfortable eight strokes. Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker, Brooks Koepka, and Rickie Fowler Rounded out the Top 5.
Other than fading Spieth, my picks were pretty good overall. Patrick Reed was the chalk of the week, but that didn’t prevent him from underperforming, and a 2nd place finish was much appreciated. Rickie Fowler gave us two in the Top 5. Dustin Johnson and Jimmy Walker both finished in a tie for 10th, so four of five finished in the Top 10, although I view DJ’s finish as slightly disappointing given the high hopes I had for him coming in. Our only true disappointment was Bill Haas, who finished 18th out of 32. It wasn’t too bad given his cheap price, but all players in the Top 15 would have been a nice cherry on top. It would have been nice to nail the winner, but solid showing overall. We’ll give it a B+ and hope to do better next week!
Apology to Brooks
My love affair with Brooks Koepka has been quite the ongoing saga over the last six months. I wrote him up for several straight weeks, had to wish him goodbye when his price shot up, and then last week, when I said I was staying away due to a switch to Nike Golf clubs. Koepka obviously did just fine with the new sticks as he finished in a tie for 3rd at minus 21. Check out this ridiculous shot from 209 yards to get a glipse of how good he was. Brooks, I apologize for doubting you. It won’t happen again (until it does). Keep on crushing, player.
Sony Open Picks
Justin Thomas
There is a logjam of golfers priced above $10k this week, but Justin Thomas is my favorite golfer in this group from a point per dollar standpoint. While I think many will pay up for one of Walker/Scott/Kisner/Kuchar and deploy a “Stars and Scrubs” approach, I think this is a solid week for a more balanced lineup. Selecting Thomas as your stud allows you some extra $ to fill out the rest of your lineup. Last week, Thomas opened with a sloppy 70-73, but finished with weekend with back-to-back 69s to finish at a respectable -11. He notched his first career PGA win back in November at the CIMB Classic, and I expect him to challenge for another this week. As he is only 22, he doesn’t have much experience here, but did finish 6th in his only visit last season.
Charles Howell III
Every event seems to have one or two players who play it well-above their normal standards, and this event is the one for Charles Howell III. He has never missed a cut here in five tries, and has three consecutive Top 10s as well. He is also coming into this event playing the best golf of his life, at least to close out the 2015 season. He finished with three straight Top 17 finishes, including two in the Top 10. Howell III’s biggest weakness has often been his putter (just 1444th in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2015 and 93rd in 2014), but he has putted well to start this year, currently ranking 32nd. If he continues to putt well, I see no reason he won’t compete for yet another Top 10 finish on a course he is obviously comfortable playing.
Ryan Palmer
I generally seem to be higher on Palmer than most on any given week, and this week might not be any different. It might be that his key statistics rarely jump off the page at you. His only impressive ranking from 2015 was his 25th ranked Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but the rest was seemingly average. A closer look shows that Palmer doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses either. Also, he is an underrated power hitter, and is currently averaging a ridiculous 328 yards per drive this season (yes, it’s a small sample size, but still impressive). While distance isn’t essential at a short course like this one, it doesn’t hurt either. Palmer won this event in 2010 and has back-to-back Top 20s here as well. He hasn’t played in a PGA event since October, but he was in good form then, posting a 16th place finish at the Shriners. As he is priced almost identically to DFS darling Will Wilcox, I expect his ownership to be low, a nice bonus for tournaments.
Tony Finau
Every several weeks, there seems to be a player who doesn’t necessarily fit the playing style for the course, but is just too talented and priced too low to resist. This week, that designation goes to Tony Finau. While Finau is generally targeted on longer courses where the bombers succeed, he isn’t a one trick pony. When he gets rolling, he can also be accurate with his irons and find greens with regularity. He is always liable to struggle with the flat stick, but he merely has to be average with his putter to be successful due to the strokes he gains on the way to the green. His odds to win (70/1) are identical to those of Will Wilcox and Keegan Bradley, both of whom are priced well above Finau. He probably can’t be trusted in cash games due to his ability to blow up at any given moment, but he offers great tournament upside for a nice price.
Jerry Kelly
Jerry Kelly could be one of the highest owned players this week, which is a statement I never thought I’d write. Kelly, at the ripe age of 49, is coming off his best season in a long time, finishing with 11 Top 25s in 2015, his highest total since 2009. While Kelly’s form has been good lately, that isn’t the primary reason he’ll be so highly owned this week. He’ll be popular due to his fantastic course history here. He has a victory here (way back in 2002) and eight Top 10s in 17 appearances. Fading him in tournaments could be a prudent move due to ownership percentages, but Kelly seems to be a lock to make the cut and should be a staple in your cash game lineups.
Rory Sabbatini
There are a surprising number of decent options around this price point (Shawn Stefani stands out as well), but Rory Sabbatini is my favorite of the lot. He has made three of four cuts to start the year, including three straight at a Top 25 at the Shriners. His course history is good as he finished 6th here last year and had a runner-up finish in 2008 and 2006. It’s highly unlikely that he’s going to win this event, or even get you a Top 10 (most likely), but I expect him to make the cut, which is all you can ask for at this price.