PGA DFS Targets: Wyndham Championship
Jason Day was dominant at Whistling Straits as he blitzed his way to a record-setting 20 shots under par, the lowest ever in a major championship. Jordan Spieth threw everything he had at him, but Day never wavered in route to a comfortable victory.
Any other week, Spieth would have been an impressive victory, but there will little he could do. I was surprised at how easily the players dismantled the course. Sixteen players were at least ten shots under par, a number I never would have imagined at a major. Several of the names at the top were to be expected (Day, Spieth, Rose, Koepka, and Dustin Johnson), but names like Anirban Lahiri and George Coetzee came from nowhere to finish in the Top 7. Overall, it was a joy to watch the best players in the world play some incredible golf. Day seems like a genuinely good guy, and I couldn’t be happier for him.
PGA Championship Recap
Why else am I happy for Jason Day? He was my top pick to win the thing! In my only other time writing him up (RBC Canadian Open), he also won, so I’m expecting a check from him any day now as a way of saying thank you… The rest of my picks were solid overall. Koepka and Streb were the chalk of the week, but that didn’t make them poor plays. You likely didn’t do well if you faded them, as they both finished in the Top 10. Stenson opened with a 76 and most of you likely had your pitchforks out, but he rebounded with a Friday 66 to make the cut and finished in the Top 25. Bubba wasn’t his usual electric self, but plodded to a decent 21st place finish. Matsuyama was probably the biggest disappointment, although he didn’t kill you either, finishing in 37th. Danny Willett was my punt play and while he wasn’t great, he made the cut. Overall, I’d have to say we have our first A+ rating of the season. The winner, three Top 10s, and five Top 25s. Hard to beat that. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling into this week.
Wyndham Championship
The Wyndham Championship will be played at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. It is a short course, playing as a Par-70 and spanning just over 7,100 yards. The course is known for low numbers, and with the field this week, I expect that to continue. Let’s take a look at some of the key stats for this week.
Relevant Stats:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Greens in Regulation (GIR)
Putting Inside 10’
Course History
Most weeks, I’ll refer to other more specific statistics and leave a disclaimer that “SG:T2G and SG:P are always important and should be considered week in and week out…”. This week, I think they are even more essential that usual and have them featured instead of a disclaimer. This course is short and built for crazy low numbers. This week will consist of players knocking it close and converting birdie putts. If you can’t do both, you’ll be left behind. Greens in Regulation and Putting Inside of 10’ should be essential to making this happen, and Course History has proven to be an indicator of future success here.
Ode to Brooks Koepka
Dear Brooks,
We’ve had a great run here in this article. Every tournament that you’ve been in, I’ve written about you here. During that span, you’ve been nothing short of incredible. For that, I thank you. You’ve finished in the Top 18 a remarkable six straight times, including four Top 10s. You’ve pounded the ball off the tee and made birdie putts of all lengths and sizes. You were 43 shots under par during those 24 rounds, and only two rounds above 72. Before I continue, I want you to know that it’s nothing you did. You were the best. Unfortunately, the sites have finally priced you to match your performances over the past six weeks. Because of this, we must part ways for the time being. I still love you and all that you’ve done for me, but all good things must come to an end. I wish you continued success in your endeavors.
Love,
Taylor
Brandt Snedeker ($10,300 on DraftKings)
As you can see in the “Ode to Brooks” above, I am a big fan of Brooks Koepka each and every week, but I had to go in another direction for this week. Brandt Snedeker seems to check all the right boxes for this tournament and is my preferred play. He ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Putting and is capable of making bombs like this. He’s not just a long putt specialist as he ranks 21st in Putts inside 10’ and 1st in putts from exactly 10’ (ok that one is random, but doesn’t hurt the cause). He ranks fifth in scrambling, which could come into play this week. His last seven tournament finishes are as follows: 12th, 33rd, MC, 10th, 8th, 6th, and 2nd. So other than the stinker at The Open Championship, Snedeker has been brilliant. His success at this course has also been impressive, as he’s won here before to go along with three Top 10s.
Bill Haas (DK: $9,600)
Haas had a rough go of it at the PGA Championship, but he is built for this course and should rebound nicely. He finished second here last year, and also has four Top 20s since 2009. His recent form has been inconsistent, but he’s just a few weeks from a fourth place performance at the Quicken Loans National. He’s 28th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 22nd in putting from Inside 10 feet. His Greens in Regulation (GIR) is a serviceable 51st, and he is also a decent scrambler (32nd). Haas isn’t the safest bet for cash games due to his tendency to inexplicably miss cuts, but he is one of the few players under $10K on DraftKings with a legitimate chance of winning this event.
Carl Pettersson (DK: $8,400)
Pettersson seems to be in an “on again, off again” sort of rhythm lately, as he hasn’t put together back-to-back positive performances since June. He’s finished 75th, 4th, MC, 12th, MC, and 5th. Do you notice a pattern? We’re due for another great performance if the pattern keeps up! More importantly, Pettersson seems to love this course more than anyone on Tour. He is the all-time money leader here and has a victory to go along with several Top 10s. Pettersson doesn’t excel at much other than his ability to roll in putts when he’s on. His Strokes Gained: Putting is 39th and he also ranks in the Top 25 in both One-Putt % and Putts Per Round. I honestly don’t have a good feel for what Pettersson’s ownership percentage will be. On one hand, you have a player who has owned this even through the years. On the other, you have a player who is normally very low-owned and whose stats don’t jump of the page. We won’t know until lineup lock, but I’ll have at least some exposure to Pettersson.
Will Wilcox ($8,400)
Like Koepka, Wilcox has become one of the most adored DFS golfers in the game. The most impressive and encompassing statistic for Will Wilcox is his All-Around Ranking, which is first on Tour. Yes, that includes the likes of Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. Wilcox also ranks second in Total Driving and fourth in Greens in Regulation (GIR). His Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green ranking (20th) is equally impressive, and is one of the key stats this week. His putting can be inconsistent at times, but is a strength overall as evidence by his 40th ranked Strokes Gained: Putting. Wilcox comes into this tournament on fire, logging three straight Top 25 finishes, including a runner-up at the Barbasol Championship and eighth at the John Deere Classic. Sure, neither of these were elite events, but it still shows the caliber of golfer that Wilcox is becoming. During those three tournaments, he’s 39 strokes under par and doesn’t have a double-bogey or worse. Wilcox dealt with a wrist injury several weeks ago, but appears to be all systems go this week.
Brian Harman ($7,500)
I haven’t seen anything about Brian Harman around the industry, but I think he could be an excellent, under-the-radar play. A look at Harman’s game log is a bit of a roller coaster ride as he’s missed cuts in two of three weeks, but his potential upside is also evident. He finished third at the Travelers Championship several weeks ago and also has two other Top 10 performances. None of Harman’s stats jump off the page, although his 27th ranking in Putts Inside 10’ is likely his most relevant stat for this course. He also had a third place finish here in 2013 (including all four rounds under 70), so he has proven he can navigate this course with effectiveness. Harman hasn’t been consistent enough to be trusted in cash lineups, but he offers immense upside for a cheap price.
Cameron Smith ($7,400)
I was already interested in Cameron Smith this week, but Vegas completed the sell job. He’s listed as the 21st most likely player to win, but is the 32nd most expensive player on DraftKings. Smith has been very impressive lately, most recently finishing 25th at the PGA Championship. Before that, he had back-to-back made cuts including an unlikely fourth place finish at the US Open. He is only 22-years-old, but his game is far beyond his years. He recently moved into the Top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings, a huge achievement for such a young player. My only concern is that he’s never played here before, but his current form should outweigh the lack of course knowledge.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,800)
We deviated briefly, but we’re back on the chalk train as Taylor should be one of the more popular plays this week. Taylor has been a cut-making machine this season, going a perfect 10/10, an impressive feature for a relatively unknown player. Unlike Harman above, Taylor is a great cash game play due to his consistency in making cuts. That being said, it’s unlikely that Taylor will compete for a victory. At his bargain bin price, a made cut and a Top 25 would be fine by me.