PGA DFS Targets: The Memorial
Talk about a weird week. Course changes, delays, standing water and then an actual normal Sunday finish. Those were the days of our lives last week at the Byron Nelson Championship. I’m mainly happy it’s over. Lots of inconsistent golf from many of my picks, but it’s difficult to be too hard on yourself because I can’t honestly say the conditions didn’t play a large factor in what transpired last week. The top ten was littered with no names and recent web.com grads, so it was definitely a week where many top players underperformed. As I already said, I’m glad it’s over and ready to move on.
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The Memorial
The Memorial is Jack’s tournament. Golfing legend Jack Nicklaus helped design the course and create the golfing complex that is Muirfield Village. He started this tournament way back in 1976 and since then it’s been one of the premier stops on tour. The Memorial has Invitational status meaning the field this week is reduced to around 120 golfers, although the cut still remains at 70 and ties. With over half the field making the weekend though a more aggressive fantasy strategy can be adopted.
The course this week plays as a par 72 and comes in around 7300-7400 yards depending on setup. There’s zero doubt that this course is one of the best all-around tests the players face all year. Even though it doesn’t consistently rank as the toughest course on tour Muirfield Village presents its fair share of challenges and winning here requires a golfer to use their full toolbox. The course was designed to mimic Augusta National and when looking at the setup you can see Augusta everywhere. There are four very reachable par 5s on the course and they present the best scoring chances the players will get. Like Augusta National, par 5 scoring will be key this week and those who can perform above the field on these holes will likely be in contention come Sunday. Additionally, while the fairways are wide and the greens larger than normal Muirfield has many slopes and undulations that make navigating the course difficult. A deep knowledge of the course is key and a look at past winners shows how important experience is this week.
For the week I’ve looked at the following statistics:
Scoring Average
Par 5 scoring
Scrambling
Strokes gained: tee to green
Since 2004 only one winner has been ranked outside the top 20 in scoring average on tour for the year of their victory (Carl Pettersson was 48th in 2006). The most consistent players are often ranked above the mean in scoring average and those are definitely some of the players I am targeting this week. Additionally, par 5 scoring, scrambling and strokes gained: tee to green have all been important stats to monitor at this event. Past winners have almost always been ranked highly in all three categories and there’s no reason to think that will change this year. This is a championship course and for the week I am looking for the best of the best on tour so far this year, so consistent play will be emphasized.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds to win: 25-1
DraftKings: $11500
Victiv: $9500
I expect Matsuyama to be the highest owned play of the week and even though he makes for an interesting fade, I think you need to know the details before you make any decisions. Matsuyama is the defending champion of this event and quite frankly a perfect fit for this course from a statistical perspective. He ranks 17th in scoring average, 11th in par 5 scoring, 10th in scrambling and 2nd in strokes gained: tee to green. In short, there’s little reason to think Matsuyama will fail to come up with a decent performance this week. Even though he’s priced highly he’s still outside of the top 3 salaried players on both sites making his price-tag low enough to create decent teams around him. I think Matsuyama makes sense as a cash game anchor and probably someone you want at least some exposure to. There’s merit to going in another direction for GPP purposes this week but don’t expect him to bomb completely. Another victory here is entirely possible.
Phil Mickelson
Odds to win: 30-1
DraftKings: $11100
Victiv: $9200
If you are intent on fading Matsuyama let me present to you the case for Phil Mickelson. Mickelson is priced rather highly this week (higher than I hoped) but a look at his past results makes your realize he’s actually been playing some pretty great golf lately. If you take out his missed cut at the Players, an event he’s always struggled with, Phil has gone 4th-2nd-17th in his last three starts. Phil has never won this event but given that the course was designed to mimic Augusta National you have to think he has the game to do so. In the two years that Phil won at Augusta AND played the Memorial (2006 and 2010) he finished this event in 4th and 5th place respectively. Outside of Jordan Spieth and his historic run Phil was the next best player at Augusta. I really like his chances to put up a strong showing this week as he prepares for his annual run at the US Open title.
Bill Haas
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $9200
Victiv: $8800
Most weeks Bill Haas is just a solid fantasy golf option and this week I think he’s even more solid than usual. Haas isn’t a superstar in any one area but he ranks above average in almost every statistical category I looked at. Haas is also another player who has performed very well at both Augusta and Muirfield Village, and his last two visits to this course have seen a very fruitful return as he’s landed finishes of 4th and 8th. Haas had a bit of a rough patch after his early season win but showed his tee to green game was in great form when he posted a T4 at the Players, an event that has not been kind to him in the past. Haas is cheaper than many of the top options but offers similar reliability and is someone I’ll be looking to anchor my cash games around. I love the added flexibility his price provides you.
Patrick Reed
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $8700
Victiv: $9200
I’m really interested to see what Patrick Reed will do at this event because for all intents and purposes it seems like this course will be right up his alley. Reed is a fantastic scrambler and also ranks 16th on tour in par 5 scoring, so he should be able to keep up with the field in that regard this week. While experience is a large factor on this course Reed has already shown he’s more than capable of performing at places where he lacks experience as he has 4 wins already in his extremely young career. Reed has been a little under the radar lately but has still been playing consistent golf. With some of the top names skipping this event he’s one of the players who could jump up and nab the outright win. Reed’s a great fantasy option for me this week as I think he carries all the potential of the top salaried players at a heavily reduced price-tag.
Brooks Koepka
Odds to win: 55-1
DraftKings: $8000
Victiv: $8600
The other great young player I’ll be eyeing this week is Brooks Koepka. Koepka is an absolute beast on the par 5s (7th on tour in par 5 scoring) and also ranks highly in strokes gained: tee to green and scoring average. While he had a bit of an injury concern before the Masters he still ended up making the cut there and showed up 100% healthy last week and finished a very solid 16th. Koepka’s tee to green game is every bit as good as last year’s winner and there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to attack this course the same way that Matsuyama did last year. My only concern with Koepka is that his short game is still a little bit unrefined but one good week around the greens is well within his capabilities. With Koepka you’re arguably getting the same fantasy point potential you get when rostering players priced well over 9 or 10k on both sites. He’s the bargain play of the week and it’s not even close.
Kevin Chappell
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $7400
Victiv: $6300
While a lot of people may be flocking to young superstars Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger this week, allow me to make the
case for Kevin Chappell. Chappell had a very slow start to the season but has recently shown flashes of the extremely solid tee to green game that made him an extremely solid fantasy option for most of 2014. He’s now finished 16th and 19th in his past two events and comes to a course this week that he seems to enjoy. Chappell finished lone 2nd here in 2013 emphasizing once again how a solid tee to green game can translate into success on this course. A lot of fantasy gamers may not trust Chappell yet and even though I’d still recommend him more as a tournament or GPP play, than a cash game staple, his price is simply too low this week for the upside he brings on this course. He makes for a great low-priced and likely low-owned swerve off many popular value plays and is a player I’ll be targeting this week in several formats.
Russell Henley
Odds to win: 60-1
DraftKings: $7400
Victiv: $7800
The other player in this price range who I think you have to consider for fantasy purposes is Russell Henley. Henley is coming
off another very solid performance at the Byron Nelson and has now upped his made cut-total to 9 of his last 10 tournaments. Henley is striking the ball very well right now and it’s really just a matter of whether he can have a good enough week around the greens to compete for the title here. Even though he missed the cut at this event last year he’s still got a nice history at the course having finished 6th here in his debut in 2013. Henley is a much more consistent player than he was in 2014 and I expect he’ll show well here again this year. I liked the way he performed at Augusta earlier in the year and in a weaker field I could see him cracking the top ten this week and being a factor on Sunday.
Steve Stricker
Odds to win: 75-1
DraftKings: $7100
Victiv: $7000
Old man Stricker is one of my favorite plays this week for cash game purposes on both sites. Stricker just brings consistency that is unmatched for fantasy golf and this week he brings it at a price-tag that is entirely too low considering the success he’s had on this course. Stricker is a past champion of this event (2011) who also finished 6th here last year. He had a long layoff at the beginning of the year but recently has started to show the same type of form that made him oh so good for fantasy purposes in 2014. While he’s by no means my favorite to win the tournament, Stricker simply needs to finish inside the top 40 to really pay off his salary and that alone makes him a must play. Take advantage of the consistency he brings and use Stricker in your cash games, he’s the ultimate cut-maker and has great course history this week.
DraftKings “Punt” – Tony Finau
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $6600
One of the largest differences in PGA scoring between the two major DFS sites is the fact that DraftKings awards more points proportionately for eagles and birdies made than they do for scores of bogies or worse. And since many of the options under $7000 in salary this week on DraftKings are, should be say, less than inspiring, I figured why not go with a guy who can make a boatload of birdies or better when he’s on. Tony Finau is a good young player who has now finished inside the top 20 in his last three starts, including finishing T10 last week. He ranks 19th in par 5 scoring and should be able to score at will on the shorter par 5s. His short game is a concern but at only 6600 I think he makes for a great GPP option on DraftKings as his length off the tee will set him up for numerous eagle and birdie chances. Finau is risky but has the upside to help you take down a GPP on DraftKings this week.
Victiv “Punt” – Kenny Perry
Odds to win: 200-1
Victiv: $4700
While DraftKings rewards birdies machines, Victiv’s scoring system is almost entirely based on a players finishing total as bogeys and worse are weighted with the same negative score as their positive scoring counterparts. Enter Kenny Perry. Perry is priced ridiculously cheap this week. He’s now well over 50 years old but still strikes the ball with amazing consistency and length for a person his age. Perry is a past winner of this event and showed up at the Byron Nelson last week and finished 16th. While he may not be able to pour in the birdies at the same rate as some of the youngsters, Perry is consistent and knows how to get around this course. I love him as a cheap 7th option on Victiv where he could easily save your bacon with another sneaky top 20 finish.
Notes: I really like Harris English this week and think he’s a great fit for the course, just a little concerned about his recent play, so will only be using him in GPPs. Both Bo Van Pelt and Ben Curtis have great records at this event and are priced super cheap on both sites, good filler for some stars and scrubs lineups in a smaller field where over 50% of the field make the weekend. Lastly, I think Tiger Woods is actually an option this week, he loves this course almost as much as Augusta and has won here 5 times. He’s not back to his past dominance but he can still crank out good finishes on courses like this.