PGA DFS Targets: TOUR Championship
Good Day indeed. It was yet another dominating performance from Jason Day, who has proven to be unstoppable when he gets it rolling. He set himself apart with an opening round 61 and never looked back, posting a ridiculous 262 (-22) in coasting to a six-shot victory. The rest of the Top 10 was a mix of usual suspects and surprising overperformers. That’s not to take away from the talent level of Daniel Berger and Scott Piercy, but few expected them to finish second and third in such a loaded field.
BMW Championship Recap
The tournament started out about as miserably as possible for my picks, especially in a tournament that doesn’t feature a cut. The only way to get screwed out of four rounds of golf is a WD, and Jim Furyk decided to do just that. Although in fairness, not having Day pretty much screwed you almost as much as having a WD, and I didn’t write him up last week. I obviously liked him, but just didn’t quite want to pay up, which was a mistake. Otherwise, it wasn’t an awful week of picks. Stenson put together another Top 10, and Zach Johnson was right behind him at 13th. My sleeper pick was Daniel Summerhays, who in the Top 30 going into Sunday, but fell to 41st. The only huge bust (other than Furyk) was Brandt Snedeker, who tanked to a 66th finish. Overall, I’ll give the picks a C+ from last week.
PGA TOUR Championship
All eyes with be on the “fivesome” of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, and Bubba Watson. All of them control their own destiny and will win the FedEx Cup with a win this weekend. A few others could make improbable runs with a strange combination of outcomes, but our champion will most likely come from this group. Others on this site can provide specific information on the course layout, but it will play as a Par 70 at 7307 yards. It will feature the Top 30 players and will not have a cut, so all players will play four rounds unless someone withdraws. Without further ado, let’s get on to the picks!
Jason Day
This is the obvious play, but that doesn’t make it the wrong one. Day is an unstoppable force right now and is a sizeable favorite to win this tournament (3/1!). I realize he’s pricey, but still probably not as expensive as he should be given his recent dominance. I’m going to save us all some time and rattle off the categories Day ranks in the Top 5: Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Total, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, Scrambling, Par Breakers, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, and All-Around (duh). I’m sure there are others, but my fingers got tired. In addition to his current form, Day also has some history at this course. He had a sixth place finish in 2011 and was fourth last year. Building a team around Day can be difficult due to the restrictive salary cap, but I’ll take my chances with a few scrubs instead of fading day again. Note: Fading Day is a viable strategy, especially in tournaments, it’s just not one that I will be employing…
Others to consider: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler
Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama had yet another “sneaky” Top 10 finish last week where he posted a 66 on Sunday to vault him to a tie for seventh. It was his third straight Top 25 in the playoff events, one of only a few players who can make that claim. Matsuyama has ranked highly in some key statistics all season long. He ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, eighth in Total Driving, 10th in Par Breakers, and 20th in Greens in Regulation (GIR). Matsuyama’s issues this year have come with the putter. He ranks just 87th in Strokes Gained: Putting, but appears to have put some of his putting woes behind him for the time being. Matsuyama hasn’t won all year (nine Top 10s and three Top 3s), so it’s unlikely he’ll break the streak this week, but I love the stability he provides for a cheap price. Some will say this relegates him to a cash play, but I think he can be played in tournaments as well. A Top 10 finish in GPPs is worth just as many points as a Top 10 finish in cash games. For the price, Matsuyama might be my favorite play of the week.
Others to consider: Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar
Paul Casey
I don’t know what it is about Paul Casey, but he always seems to be underowned and underpriced in most events. It might be his perceived lack of upside (no wins in 2015) or his struggles with the putter, but Casey always seems to fly under the radar. My favorite attributes of Casey are his ability to find greens consistently, as evidenced by his fourth-ranked Greens in Regulation and his ninth-ranked Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His is also a solid driver of the ball (10th in Total Driving), which also plays into his excellent Ball Striking (fifth). The main reason I love Casey this week? His price. For someone of his talent, he is underpriced by at least a few hundred dollars on DraftKings. No disrespect to the players around him, but he shouldn’t be priced closer to Sang-Moon Bae and Steven Bowditch than someone like Zach Johnson. Casey might not be flashy, but I’ll take him for the discount and use the savings to pay up elsewhere.
Others to consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Bill Haas
Daniel Berger
Jason Day is obviously the hottest golfer on the planet right now (speaking to his game, not his looks, although he’s not lacking in either), but the second hottest might be Daniel Berger. That last sentence isn’t one I thought I would ever mutter, but Berger has strung together back-to-back impressive performances against the world’s best golfers. He followed up a 12th place at the Deutsche Bank with a second place at the BMW Championship. Any other week, and the tournament would have been his after posting a blistering 268 (-16). Berger has some length to him (17th in Total Distance) and also does a decent job of finding greens consistently (31st in GR & 35 SG:T2G). Berger’s inconsistencies throughout the year are apparent when you rummage through his game logs, but his upside also stands out. He seems to miss the cut or finish near the top, with very little in between. In an event like this with a small field and no cut line, we want guys with some upside. Berger is one of the few players at his price point with the type of upside we look for. He is very young (only 22 years old) and seems to have found his game lately, and I’m willing to ride him for one more week.
Others to consider: Robert Streb, Kevin Kisner, Harris English