PGA DFS Targets: Wells Fargo Championship
What a wild week from a fantasy standpoint. There was serious carnage among the chalk plays and a huge change in leaderboard rankings all throughout the weekend, culminating with one of my picks – and my favorite GPP play last week, Rickie Fowler – storming down the course and winning in a playoff.
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If your cash game plays suffered from lots of missed cuts, you were not alone; it was a tough week for some very good golfers but that is the nature of these deep field events. The PGA Tour is like any major sport; there’s a lot of parity and everyone has a chance to win on any given day.
Wells Fargo Championship
This week sees a much less star-studded field, but also sees the players tackling another championship style course. Quail Hollow Golf club is where the Wells Fargo has been contested since its introduction on tour and it’s truly one of the more liked golf courses among pros. Quail Hollow is a par 72 and generally plays around 7500 yards depending on set up of course. There were issues with the greens back in 2013 but they have been replaced and now Bermuda grass is used on all 18. Some holes have been altered a bit in the past two years as well to make it a little more exciting and difficult for the players. There’s some drivable par 4s which are always fun, but also some difficult par 3s and 4s which will really challenge the players tee to green games. The finishing stretch, affectionately dubbed “the green mile”, is perhaps the toughest closing stretch on tour as the players face off against two monster par 4s and another challenging-island’ish style par 3.
Given the nature of this course, players who hit it long have generally fared very well here. Last year J.B. Holmes hit it everywhere on this course (except the fairway) and still managed to win. Length definitely trumps accuracy this week, but the truth is that players will have to have all facets of their tee to green game in order, and have ability to get up and down on some of the more challenging holes. Some very poor putters have had success at this track but some very good scramblers have also done well here. Finally, there are a ton of challenging holes to deal with but also some very decent eagle opportunities, and like many long par 72 courses, par 5 scoring will be massively important this week for the players, as they will have to score somewhere to keep pace.
With all this in mind, for statistics this week I’ve focused on the following:
Strokes gained: tee to green
Driving Distance
Scrambling
Par 5 scoring
Finally, it should be noted that the winners here have often been high quality players. Talented young players bagging their first victory or former major winners seem to be the name of the game at this course. It’s always possibly we see an outside winner, but this week it seems like a real talent will bag the win. Something to keep in mind.
Phil Mickelson
Odds to win: 25-1
DraftKings: $10400
Victiv: $8300
There’s few weeks where I would advocate for Phil Mickelson as anything more than a risky GPP play, but this is definitely one of them. Mickelson absolutely adores this course and has been very vocal about his fondness for it in the past. And Mickelson’s play has backed up his words. He’s played here each of the past ten years and in that same span finished inside the top 12 eight times – while never missing the cut. Mickelson still hits it miles and still is one of the best around the greens. More importantly his inaccuracy is not penalized on this course as greatly as it is at others, and any course where Phil can simply rip away and play aggressively will favor him. It was only a month or so ago that Phil narrowly missed getting his 6th major. I’m willing to bet he brings some of that good form to Charlotte this week and challenges once again for this title.
Louis Oosthuizen
Odds to win: 45-1
DraftKings: $9300
Victiv: $7400
Oosthuizen is without a doubt my “this week’s version of Rickie Fowler”. He’s a player who I feel will be somewhat under-owned by many fantasy players simply because of his semi-poor play at the Players and due to his pricing. On DraftKings he slots in just over fantasy favorite Patrick Reed and just under fantasy stud JB Holmes, making him a likely fade for most people. But this course sets up extremely well for Oosthuizen, who has one of the best tee to green games on tour. He currently ranks 13th in strokes gained: tee to green and 15th in par 5 scoring, and for all intents and purposes fits this course to a tee. If he has a good week around the greens, I really like him as a dark horse to win this tournament.
Adam Scott
Odds to win: 30-1
DraftKings: $8600
Victiv: $8800
Sometimes you have to take what is given to you by the fantasy sites. This week Adam Scott has seen a massive drop in fantasy price due to his recent stretch of sub-par finishes, and I’m telling you to take advantage. Scott is really struggling with the putter right now but it should tell you just how talented he is that he’s continued to make a lot of cuts even as he’s struggled. Scott is currently ranked first on tour in strokes gained: tee to green and is still one of the top five drivers of the golf ball on tour. The course this week shifts massively in his favor given the premium on length over accuracy, and even if he continues to putt poorly Scott could still have a decent fantasy performance. Scott is simply a must play for me over on DraftKings where he’s only the ninth-most expensive golfer at $8600 and is also priced fairly reasonably on Victiv. If Scott has even an average week with his putter he seems likely to contend, and in this weaker field he’s one of the best value plays on the board.
Daniel Berger
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $8500
Victiv: $6700
Daniel Berger makes my list for a few reasons this week. First, I think everyone will likely be on Justin Thomas, who is priced almost identical on both sites and I like the potential upside of an under-owned pick. Secondly, he’s a great statistical fit for this course. Berger smashes the ball off the tee and has also absolutely crushed par 5s so far this year. More importantly for me this week is the fact that Berger ranks within the top 50 on tour in par 5 scoring and should be able to get up and down lots this week. I think many people will still be sour over his missed cut at the Players, but once again, I don’t put a lot of stock into it. Quail Hollow is a much better fit for Berger’s game and a place I could see him nabbing his first title on tour.
Gary Woodland
Odds to win: 70-1
DraftKings: $7800
Victiv: $7400
I see Gary Woodland as a very polarizing figure for fantasy at this event. Many were likely expecting him to build on a strong match play performance and perhaps even challenge for the win at the Players. However Woodland will never be known for his great accuracy and I doubt he’ll ever see consistent success at TPC Sawgrass. This week however the course offers a much better fit for Woodland’s power game, as his long drives off the tee will not be penalized as severely. Woodland has had a bad start to the season but looked in great form two weeks ago. Even though he’s a risk, I feel like he’s too good not to start showing some consistent play soon, and this course is likely a great place for him to start. He’s progressively gotten better each time he’s played Quail Hollow and I think he makes for a great fantasy play given his immense talent and upside.
Brendon de Jonge
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $7200
Victiv: $6400
I like it when players have both solid course histories and solid recent records, as it makes picking them a much simpler process. This week sees de Jonge, who’s made his last four cuts on tour, come back to a golf course that he truly seems taken with. Over the past six years de Jonge has played the Wells Fargo event six times and made all six cuts while also landing a sixth and fourth in that span. Last year he famously opened with an 80 and then shot a 62 on Friday to make the cut and actually challenge for the win on the weekend. Another factoid in de Jonge’s favor: he’s also had great success at the Shell Houston Open, which is played on a very similar style of course. I like de Jonge as a nice value play for cash games and GPPs this week, as he gives you some reliability and much needed roster flexibility.
Jason Kokrak
Odds to win: 90-1
DraftKings: $7200
Victiv: $6100
There’s a lot trending in Jason Kokrak’s favor that make me really like his chances at Quail Hollow. He hits it miles off the tee and also ranks inside the top ten in par 5 scoring, which is great for fantasy purposes as well as his chances on the weekend. He’s played this course twice before and improved each time. Kokrak has quietly been one of the most consistent players on tour this entire year and is quickly becoming one of the best players on tour who have yet to snag a victory. His last four starts have seen two missed cuts but also seen him finish no worse than 18th when he did make the weekend. This long par 72 sets up perfectly for his game and like the other big hitters a good week around the greens could easily lead to his first victory this weekend. I love his price on Victiv where he’s barely above 6K and allows you all kinds of roster flexibility.
Victiv “Punt” – John Merrick
Odds to win: 200-1
Victiv: $4300
Not many people will be familiar with John Merrick but he is a former winner on tour and recently has been flashing the form that made him a tour regular a few years ago. Merrick has always played well at this event and has some local ties to the course, which seemed to serve him well in the past. Merrick is only 3-for-6 in his last six events in terms of making cuts, but when he has made the cut he’s finished no worse than 26th. I like Merrick for the upside he brings this week at his price. He’s no guarantee, but he’s also got some upside as a former tour winner who likes the course, a great sixth or seventh option on Victiv.
DraftKings “Punt” – Steven Bowditch
Odds to win: 200-1
DraftKings: $6200
I am not very enamoured with any players under $6500 on DraftKings this week but one player I can get behind is Steven Bowditch. Bowditch hits it long (28th in driving distance) and is also one of the best scramblers on tour (ranked second). He may not be consistent but he does have his moments and it’s generally been on the longer par 72s where accuracy is not at a premium when he has excelled. He flashed some form by finishing 12th on another long par 72 course three weeks ago at the Zurich Classic, and I could see him once again playing well here this week. He’s played Quail Hollow twice and made the cut both times. In a sea full of lousy options, he’s my best super cheap play on DraftKings.
Notes: Two players I would advocate not fading completely this week are Kevin Kisner and Rory McIlroy. Kisner is probably the hottest non-elite player on tour right now and gets to putt on Bermuda greens again, which he seems to love. McIlroy is priced very expensively this week but has dominated this course and looks to be close to the dominant form he showed at the end of last season. My last suggestion is to consider using Rory Sabbatini in a GPP or two. He finished 8th last weekend and was 8th at this event last year. When he gets hot he tends to stay that way for a couple weeks.