PGA DFS Targets: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
I have a normal research routine that I try to follow each week. I normally do my initial research on Monday night, including a look at prices on the major sites to identify any potential values. Then, I write this article on Tuesday night to have it posted by Wednesday morning. This week, I knew that I had to travel for work on Tuesday and would be in the car (riding, not driving), which seemed like an excellent time to do all of my prep work before writing the article from my hotel room on Tuesday night. This plan was thwarted by a massive cellular outage across the southeast on Tuesday, leaving me useless during my six-hour commute.
Needless to say, I had to make efficient use of my time and thus will not have a detailed recap of last week’s tournament and my picks. Instead, see the section on Spieth below, which I was able to write without internet access. Hopefully, it will prove valuable to you. Sorry for the changeup this week; it should be back to normal next week!
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
The Firestone Country Club (South) will play host to the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational this weekend, and will play as a 7,400 yard Par 70. This is quite a lengthy course, especially when it plays as a Par 70. The field is loaded and includes 48 of the top 50 players in the world. Only Rory McIlroy and Chris Kirk won’t be in attendance, both due to injury. The event is also unique in that there will be no cut line. This should affect how people approach the tournament as everyone is assured four rounds (except for early withdrawals).
Relevant Stats:
Driving Distance / Driving Accuracy
Par 4 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Note: Strokes Gained: Putting is always important and should be considered week in and week out.
I highlighted both driving distance and driving accuracy because I believe both will be equally important. Although most will focus on just the distance, distance in the rough will leave golfers in a world of hurt for their approach shots. People that can hit the fairways will be able to attack the greens with better approach shots, as some will be forced to use hybrids and woods from the fairway. Take a look at some of the hole layouts and you’ll notice plenty of fairway bunkers and trees guarding each side. Par 4 scoring is essential because there are so many Par 4s! Some of the longer Par 4s are the length of a typical Par 5, but Par 4 scoring should be a good indicator of success. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green normally makes my disclaimer instead of being featured, but I think it’ll be especially important this week.
To Spieth or Not to Spieth?
Had DFS golf been around when Tiger Woods was in his prime, we would have had to make a tough choice every week on whether or not to pay up for the world’s most dominant golfer. Unfortunately, Tiger was out of his prime by the time DFS golf rolled around. Fortunately, Jordan Spieth is dominating the sport like no one since Tiger. Each week, we get to decide whether or not to pay up or fade him. This week, DraftKings has some very tight pricing on the low-end, making it even more difficult to play top-end players like Spieth. If you play Spieth this week, you’ll have an average of $7,500 per player for the rest of your lineup. While there are some decent players in the $7,500 range, there is a significant disadvantage to this approach. EVERYONE will be doing it! Good luck having a unique lineup in a large tournament (Drive the Green) with Spieth and a combo of $7.5K guys. You might be splitting first place with 20 of your closest friends. Personally, I’ll be giving Spieth the “mini-fade” this week. I like him, but not what he allows me to do elsewhere. Here are my top targets:
Jason Day
See my blurb above regarding Jordan Spieth to see how I feel about the best player in the world. In the tier directly beneath Spieth, there are plenty of excellent choices. I’m not going to argue with Johnson, Rose, Fowler, or Scott here, but Day is my guy. Day is second in Total Driving, which will be a nice advantage on this lengthy course. He’s second in Par 4 scoring (trailing only Spieth). He’s 27th in SG:T2G and 20th in SG:P. As for his recent form, I guess you could say it’s decent. He has three straight Top 10s and is coming off a victory at the RBC Canadian Open. In his last two tournaments, he is 31 strokes under par. His “worst” round during that stretch was a 71 in the second round at the Open Championship. Day gives you $1,300 back in your pocket over Spieth on DraftKings, which can be used to make significant upgrades to your other golfers.
Also Consider: Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Adam Scott
Hideki Matsuyama
Assuming that our identified key stats will be a good indicator of success this week, Matsuyama should thrive. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (raise your hand if you would have guess that?). He ranks fifth in Total Driving and second in Par 4 scoring. I think those are the highest collective ranks of the key stats since I’ve been writing this article. He has a ridiculous nine straight Top 25 finishes, including three Top 5s. He hasn’t yet captured the elusive victory this season, but if he keeps producing at this level, it’s only a matter of time before he gets his first win of the season. Vegas ranks him as the seventh most likely candidate to win this weekend, but he’s priced outside of the Top 10 on both Victiv and DraftKings. Matsuyama will likely be highly-owned this week, but makes for an excellent cash-game play due to his consistency.
Also Consider: Sergio Garcia
Zach Johnson
What does a guy have to do to get some respect around here? Seriously, I don’t think people understand how well Zach Johnson has been playing lately. He has three straight Top 6 finishes, yet no one seems to be talking about him. Over his last three tournaments, he’s 46 strokes under par! I didn’t check, but I have to imagine that is one of the lowest totals for three tournaments ever. Many will point out (including me the past several weeks) that his driving distance is abysmal (162nd), and he hasn’t putted well (136th in SG:P), but it hasn’t stopped Johnson from playing at an elite level. His driving accuracy is third on tour and also ranks 13th in SG:T2G. The good news keeps coming as he’s seventh in Par 4 scoring. I think the scariest thing (the good scary, not the bad scary) about Johnson is that his putting has been atrocious. Historically, he is an above-average putter, so if he elevates that part of his game, watch out.
Also Consider: Jim Furyk, Keegan Bradley
Brooks Koepka
There’s no denying it, I have a man crush on Brooks Koepka. I think I have featured him every week that he’s been in the field, and he hasn’t really let us down yet. Koepka is eighth in Driving Distance, 10th in SG:P, and 14th in Greens in Regulation. He’s ranked 13th in Par 4 scoring. In fact, Par 3 scoring is one of his few weaknesses (167th) as he is fifth in Par 5 Scoring. I mentioned that Koepka hasn’t let me down yet, right? That’s because he’s had four consecutive Top 18 finishes and two of the four have been of the Top 10 variety. Like Matsuyama above, I expect Koepka to be highly-owned, despite the loaded field. Fading him in tournaments could pay off, but he’ll be a staple in my cash lineup.
Also Consider: Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar
Marc Leishman
The last time we saw Leishman, he was competing in a playoff at the Open Championship after posting a 64 on Saturday and a 66 on Sunday. He eventually fell in the playoff, but it was an impressive finish nonetheless. A look at his recent performances shows some wild inconsistencies, but it also shows the upside that Leishman has when he’s on his game. He has two Top 5s in his last five tournaments. I think the lack of a cut favors Leishman because it guarantees four rounds, and the chances are good that he puts at least a few solid rounds together. Leishman rarely shows up in fantasy recommendations because the individual stats aren’t too impressive for Leishman. In fact, his most positive stats are scoring average (36th), and his World Golf Ranking (30th). What does that tell us? It confirms that he’s inconsistent (which we knew), but also that he gets the job done in unorthodox ways. Oh yeah, he also finished third at this event last year, so there’s some tangible evidence to support this pick.
Also Consider: Paul Casey, Bill Haas, Danny Willett
Brendon Todd
There are a multitude of players around this price point. I honestly believe choosing correct combination of golfers at this level will be the key to making some money this weekend. I went back and forth between multiple players, but ultimately arrived at Brendon Todd. Todd is a very accurate driver of the ball (seventh in Driving Accuracy) and is also one of the best putters on tour (fourth in SG:P). His Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (48th) and Par 4 Scoring (35th) aren’t elite, but both are good enough when combined with his excellent accuracy and putting. Todd is playing the best golf of his life right now, logging three Top 15 finishes in a row. Todd likely doesn’t have the firepower to win at a tournament loaded with superstars, but another Top 15 performance wouldn’t surprise me. At this price range, he could be a nice differential play as others flock to more popular plays.
Also Consider: Everyone else in this range… Robert Streb, Kevin Kisner, Hunter Mahan, Webb Simpson. P.S. I’m not a huge fan of any of the true min-priced players ($7K), but selecting the right one or two could separate you from the crowd, which will likely gravitate towards the $7.5K range.