PGA DFS Targets: Zurich Classic
After last week, I think it’s high time that Hilton Head rename the course to “the house that Jim and Matt built”. Every year it seems like Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar are in contention at this event and it makes my decision not to include them in my picks look pretty foolish. Still, it was nice to see Brendon Todd and Russell Knox play well, and I can always take solace in the fact that my “notes” contained the eventual winner.
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Ultimately, one bad week is just a tiny blip on the life-line of a DFS player, so let’s stop talking about the past and get rolling into this week…
The Zurich Classic
The Zurich Classic is a well-established event but one that always seems to get overlooked because of where it falls on the schedule. Falling two weeks after Augusta, a week before the Match Play and two weeks before the Player’s, the 2015 Zurich Classic features a fairly watered down field. Even with the lack of high end talent though, I like this event for fantasy purposes as it offers a wide open event and a chance to really pinpoint some under the radar plays. The event is played at TPC Louisiana, a par 72, 7300 yard Pete Dye creation which features lots of sand and water. This course plays very easy and winning scores since 2010 have been between -15 and -20. The players will be faced with reachable par 5s and some short par 4s and will have to take advantage when possible.
Some key stats/trends I’ve looked at this week include:
Greens in regulation
Birdie Average
Par 5 scoring
Course Correlation (Humana/OHL/Shriners/Deere Classic)
Birdies will be needed this week and it’s worthwhile looking at players who can rack up the birdies fast. The course is over 7200 yards but shorter hitters have generally fared just as well as bombers, so while driving accuracy or power can’t be favored, par five scoring and greens in regulation should help identify players who can stay out of trouble and rack up points on par 5s. Given the vulnerability of this course to low scores, I think it’s also worthwhile to look at other “easy” venues to see what players tend to thrive in these types of tournaments.
Harris English
Odds to win: 28-1
DraftKings: $11400
Victiv: $8500
Even in this weaker field there’s some serious top talent at this event and the one I like the best for fantasy purposes is Harris English. English doesn’t break the bank like Day or Dustin does and you can still create quality lineups around him. Even better is the fact that English should be coming in motivated and ready for a good week after having to miss out on the Masters. English sets up very well for this course having finished 6th here in 2013, he also ranks in the top 30 in par 5 scoring for 2015. Both of English’s wins have come in weaker field events where scoring was fairly low and I have a feeling he will challenge for his third win this week.
Steve Stricker
Odds to win: 40-1
DraftKings: $9400
Victiv: $7500
This will be Stricker’s second tournament back after back surgery, his first being the Masters. Even though there may be worries about Stricker being “rusty” he’s actually been playing a reduced schedule for a couple of years now and should be used to long layoffs. Stricker has a great history at TPC Louisiana having placed in the top 15 four times in his last 5 visits. Even though he’s closer to 50 than 40, Stricker can still rack up birdies on soft courses and you have to think he’s going to be motivated to get a win this year after having such a long layoff. I like Stricker to build on his solid Masters performance at this event.
John Peterson
Odds to win: 55-1
DraftKings: $8900
Victiv: $6700
Even though he’s slightly more expensive than I had hoped for on DraftKings I still think Peterson makes for a fantastic play this week. Peterson has played some of the most consistent golf on tour this season as he’s only missed 1 cut in 10 events. Even better, Peterson is a LSU grad who will basically be playing in a hometown event this week. Peterson ranks in the top 50 in both greens in regulation and par 5 scoring and is coming off two back to back top 20 finishes. I won’t be shocked at all if Peterson continues his good play and lands his best finish of the year this week.
Justin Thomas
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $8300
Victiv: $7400
The Zurich Classic has seen a lot of first time winners and my choice of the guy who might get his first win this week is Justin Thomas. Thomas has already shown us that he isn’t afraid to go low as he nearly won the birdie-fest known as the Humana Challenge earlier in the year. Thomas actually ranks 2nd on tour in birdies made this year, 14th in birdie average and 4th in par 5 scoring. He has length to take advantage of the par 5s and is also coming off a T11 last week at Hilton Head. Thomas is priced quite a bit cheaper than many players in front of him who maybe don’t deserve their salary. Even though it’s his first trip to the Zurich Classic I would still deploy Thomas with confidence this week, it looks like it could be a huge one for fantasy purposes.
Russell Knox
Odds to win: 60-1
DraftKings: $7700
Victiv: $7200
Even with the weak field and his solid performance last week, Knox’s price only went up slightly ($400) on DraftKings. Knox has played TPC Louisiana once before and finished 30th, but during that tournament also shot a 64 on the course. Knox may not be the longest hitter but he is ranked in the top 25 in greens in regulation and he can throw up a lot of birdies if the conditions are ripe. I think a lot of players may be off Knox thinking the course might not suit him like last week, but to me he still ranks as a fantastic value play given some of the players that are ranked above him. I won’t be surprised if Knox puts in another quality performance and pays off his fantasy salary once again.
Alex Cejka
Odds to win: 150-1
DraftKings: $7100
Victiv: $6300
Cejka is another player who frequently shows up in events where the field is thin and the course allows for low scoring. Cejka has top 20s this year at the Humana, the Shriner’s and the OHL classic, all of which had winning scores of -17 or better. Even more important may be the fact that Cejka has a very nice record at TPC Louisiana having finished 21st or better on three of his 5 visits. Cejka is coming his first win on tour only a month or so ago and has really been playing pretty inspired golf this year. It would not shock me to see him contend at this event and for his price he offers upside and consistency, which is never a bad combo.
Kyle Reifers
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $6700
Victiv: $5800
Reifers is a very interesting play this week. He is coming off back to back top T11s and also ranks in the top 50 in greens in regulation, and par 5 scoring. I should also put it out there that Reifers started the week as a 200-1 dog and has recently been bet down to his current odds of around 125-1 or lower. Reifers to me represents the type of player you want to target at weaker events as many new DFS players will bypass him simply due to the unknown factor. I like Reifers as a speculative GPP play this week and one that has tremendous upside for his potential and likely low ownership. He could easily build on his past few weeks of play and go searching for more here in New Orleans.
Victiv “Punt”: Lucas Glover
Odds to win: 150-1
Victiv: $5400
Lucas Glover may give you nightmares when you watch him putt but the reality is, he is still hitting the ball as well as almost anyone on tour. Right now Glover ranks 4th in greens in regulation and he is also coming off a very solid 18th last week at Hilton Head. Another reason to like Glover is his history at TPC Louisiana where he’s finished in the top 10 three times in 7 visits since 2005. At his price on Victiv I think he offers tremendous potential and is a great player to use in a bottom 2 role to help you offset your stud’s salaries.
DraftKings “Punt”: Eric Compton
Odds to win: 250-1
DraftKings: $5800
There’s a couple players under $6000 that I actually don’t mind this week but the one who might carry the most upside is Eric
Compton. Compton finished 5th at this event last season and also had a high finish this year at the Humana, so he’s proven he can score when he needs to. As well, I like the fact that Compton has made his last three cuts after a rough stretch of missed cuts before that, and really like the fact he made the weekend at Augusta in his first attempt. I think Compton will take a lot of confidence from showing well at Augusta and has proven in the past year or so that he can post some top placings when he is on and confident in his game.
Notes: If I was going to play a higher priced player, it would probably be Dustin Johnson. He is still swinging it better than almost anyone and I won’t be shocked if he wins this week, I don’t recommend fading him completely anyways as he could easily overpower this course. I also like both Brendan Steele and Nick Watney this week as their ball striking and length should help especially if it gets wet. Both offer pretty good consistency and the likelihood of at least getting you four solid rounds of fantasy points.