PGA DFS: Travelers Championship Expert Picks
Love it or hate it, the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay was one of the most intriguing golf tournaments in recent memory and concluded with one of the most dramatic finishes we’ve ever seen. There might be people reading this that were drawn into golf DFS by the Millionaire Maker tournament at DraftKings and played for the first time last weekend. My guess is that you are now hooked for life! Golf is one of the best DFS sports and involves an incredible four-day sweat (assuming you’re still in contention through Sunday) instead of the usual few hours that most sports provide.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
Travelers Championship
This course will be quite different than the one featured last weekend and should see much lower scores. The course will play at 6,841 yards, making it the second shortest course on tour this year. Last year, it played as one of the easiest on tour, so we should see plenty of birdies and low numbers.
I’ve focused on the following stats this week:
Strokes Gained Putting
Greens in Regulation
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green
Par 4 Scoring
Last week, driving distance and driving accuracy were both valued highly due to the course’s length. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that these factors won’t be as important this week with the much shorter course. Due to the easy setup, the key will be knocking it close and making plenty of putts. This seems obvious, but this will be magnified even more than usual. The winning score last year was -15 and I expect someone to challenge that again. Unlike last week, just making pars won’t be enough to make the cut.
Brandt Snedeker
Odds to win: 14-1
DraftKings: $10,900
Victiv: $9,100
Bubba Watson might be the Vegas favorite to win this tournament (12/1), but Snedeker is a close second at (14/1). I like Snedeker more for a variety of reasons. First, Snedeker is in excellent form. He’s posted three consecutive Top 8 finishes including an eighth-place finish last week. Next, Snedeker ranks sixth this year in strokes gained: putting, which is essential for this course. He is ranked 10th in Par 4 scoring, so Brandt seems to be made for this event. I like Bubba as well, but will save the $900 on DraftKings and roll with Snedeker here.
Similarly priced options I like: Bubba Watson, Billy Horschel
Kevin Na
Odds to win: 35-1
DraftKings: $9,500
Victiv: $8,600
Anyone who has been playing DFS golf for a while or even just following golf in general knows that Kevin Na isn’t a big-hitter. In fact, he is currently ranked 180th on the tour this season in driving distance. Fortunately for Na, this course doesn’t require a big stick, so he should be in for a nice weekend. He is ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 25th in Par 4 scoring. Another random tidbit for you is that Na is ranked 9th in approach shots ranging from 100-125 yards, which should be a distance that he finds himself frequently due to the short course. This should make up for the fact that Na can struggle with the putter at times.
Similarly priced options I like: Zach Johnson, Keegan Bradley, Kevin Streelman
Russell Knox
Odds to win: 45-1
DraftKings: $8,400
Victiv: $7,200
I was surprised to see that Knox was listed at 45-1 odds to win the tournament and that his DraftKings price is lower than I expected as well. I would have guessed a pricetag in the mid $9,000s and odds around 30-1. Similar to most of the other players featured here, I think Knox is made for this course. He is ninth in Greens in Regulation, 21st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and fourth in Par 4 scoring average. His only knock is that he isn’t an elite putter. If he can get some putts rolling, he could compete for a Top 5 finish.
Similarly priced options I like: Francesco Molinari
Will Wilcox
Odds to win: 60-1
DraftKings: $8,000
Victiv: $5,800
Wilcox seems to be a chalky pick this week, but my research led me to him just like everyone else’s did. The statistics that we care about all point to Wilcox as being an excellent play. He ranks in the Top 40 in Greens in Regulation (12th), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (40th), Strokes Gained: Putting (40th), and Par 4 Scoring (17th). He is also in excellent form. Other than a missed cut at the Zurich classic, Wilcox has had six consecutive Top 33 finishes, including four inside the Top 20. There are times to go contrarian, but this value seems too good to pass up at such an affordable price.
Similarly priced options I like: Brendon de Jonge
Brendon Todd
Odds to win: 70-1
DraftKings: $7,300
Victiv: $7,600
I haven’t seen much fanfare for Todd on this site or others, but I think he’s in store for a nice week. I think many will be off of him due to his poor performance at the US Open, but Todd struggled because the course didn’t fit his strengths (188th in Driving Distance). He is ranked 23rd in Strokes Gained: Putting and 38th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, so this should suit his fancy. His proximity to hole when approaching the green is 19th, which bodes well for some makeable birdie putts.
Similarly priced options I like: Matt Jones
Cameron Smith
Odds to win: 95-1
DraftKings: $6,500
Victiv: $6,700
A apologize for the chalky punt play, but Smith seems like the clear choice at this price range given his talent and recent performances. Smith played remarkably at the US Open in route to a fourth-place finish. Besides a missed cut the tournament before the US Open, Smith had made the cut at three straight tournaments, including a 15th place finish at RBC Heritage. In his brief stint on tour, he’s ranked second in Strokes Gained: Putting. It’s difficult to show where Smith ranks in all categories because he hasn’t played many PGA events, but know that Smith should compete to make the cut with an outside chance at another Top 10, which is all you can ask for at this price point.
Similarly priced options I like: Hudson Swafford, Ken Duke