PGA DFS: U.S. Open Expert Picks
The second major of the season is here and it’s my favorite event of the year. I love watching pro golfers struggle to make par and the course this week means you’ll likely see a ton of that. Chambers Bay is going to be one of the most interesting and intriguing golf tournaments in a long time and should be essential TV viewing. There’s also a little DFS GPP next week called the Millionaire Maker going on, so that should be interesting. Pretty exciting that you will get to see someone crowned as a millionaire on Sunday (or Monday if there’s a playoff) just for filling out a golf lineup.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
The U.S. Open
This year’s U.S. Open will be very different from past years and yet will stay carry many of the same themes as past U.S. Opens. The things that you will see a lot of? Bad scores, frustrated golfers, player’s balls running off greens after it looked like they hit a perfect shot and some really tough golf holes. The main difference this week will be in the course that is being presented to the players. Unlike past years which often featured knee high rough, tight tree lined fairways and faster than fast greens, Chambers Bay is a strict links golf course. There’s no essentially no rough, no narrow fairways, and no trees! This is a British Open course being used for the U.S. Open and the skill set needed to win this week might be very different than past events. While past U.S. open experience will be somewhat helpful, the truth is experience playing on links courses over in Europe might actually be more beneficial. Knowing how to hit cut down shots into greens and how to deal with severe undulations and huge putting surfaces will be key.
The course plays as a par 70 and can be set up anywhere between 7,400 and 7,800 yards. This is a really long course even for a links setup where the roll after landing can be significant. The fairways are extremely wide and there’s zero doubt that long hitters will carry an advantage off some tees, as they will be able to take certain trouble areas out of play. However, with so many different slopes and undulations throughout this golf course, hitting greens and fairways might still be a difficult task on many holes. The greens have already been described as “fast”, and with unpredictable bounces lurking everywhere, players are going to have be quick learners and employ a different skill set this week if they want to be crowned U.S. Open champion.
I’ve concentrated on three stats this week:
Driving Distance
Greens in Regulation
Scrambling
Some notable players have already referred to the course as a “bombers paradise”, and I think you’ll likely see a player who hits it longer than most off the tee win this week. Distance trumps accuracy at U.S. Opens for the most part, but only if the player can also pair the distance with a great short game and a propensity for staying out of trouble. Hence I’ve also looked at GIR and scrambling stats this week as well. Great ball striking (hitting lots of greens) and great play around the greens (scrambling) will be key, and Martin Kaymer certainly had a great week in both of those departments last year on his way to winning. I’m essentially looking for a player with distance who hs shown some great touch around the greens lately and a knack for staying away from huge numbers. That’s who I think will win and also the type of golfer who should end up being the best player from a DFS standpoint as well.
Henrik Stenson
Odds to win: 30-1
DraftKings: $10000
Victiv: $10000
When looking at all the players, the one I really thought fit the bill the best for this all-around test was Henrik Stenson. Stenson is a great long iron player and also has a lengthy and successful history playing on links courses. What I like best about Stenson though is his consistency. Stenson is ranked second on tour in greens in regulation and has also shown a huge improvement in putting and scrambling this year. He’s coming off a sickness that derailed him for part of his season but recently said he was fit again and flashed some decent form with a top ten over in Europe two weeks ago. He’s cheaper for DFS than many of the other top plays and offers price relief others do not.
Rickie Fowler
Odds to win: 25-1
DraftKings: $10800
Victiv: $9800
Rickie really paid off for me big time at last year’s U.S. Open and I can’t help thinking he might actually be up for another huge finish at this year’s event. On top of finally breaking through at a big event a few weeks ago at the Players (and getting a large winless drought off his back), Fowler is an excellent links player whose skillset should be very well suited to success at Chambers Bay. Fowler is long enough off the tee to keep up with the big bombers but also has deft touch on and around the greens. I am a pretty big Rickie fan this week (and most weeks) and think he’s got a great chance at a top finish on a course that should suit him better than most players. He’s pricey but I think Rickie offers just as much upside as anyone else in his salary range and might be the best overall match for this unique course.
Patrick Reed
Odds to win: 55-1
DraftKings: $8500
Victiv: $8800
I think Patrick Reed has a great game for the U.S. Open. His short game is phenomenal and his putting is extremely clutch, and he ranks well inside the top 50 in both areas this year. His ability to save par time and time again will undoubtedly serve him well at this event and I expect he’ll deal with the harsh sloping greens better than most. Reed is also one of the few players who can say he has had past success at Chambers Bay. In 2010 when the USGA Amateur was played at Chambers Bay, he shot one of the low rounds of the tourney, a 68 when scoring averaged nearly 80 for the week. If this course gets too firm, Reed could be the largest beneficiary. Reed showed tremendous fortitude when he won at Doral in 2014 in extreme conditions and he should bring that experience and toughness with him to an equally tough test. Whether or not Reed wins this week, he’s still priced cheaper than many top plays and I think he’s great value for DFS.
Brandt Snedeker
Odds to win: 50-1
DraftKings: $8100
Victiv: $8200
Snedeker might not seem like the most obvious pick this week, but he’s someone I’d take a hard look at this week. Snedeker is in great form. He finished second a few weeks back at the Colonial and then had a great weekend to finish top six at the Byron Nelson. Snedeker is also a pretty underrated links player and has a nice Open Championship record. Where he really tends to excel is on and around the greens and the fact he’s ranked so highly in strokes gained: putting should help him get up and down at a high rate. Snedeker finished inside the top 10 at the U.S. Open last year, and I think he can equal or possibly improve on that finish at Chambers Bay. He’s a very interesting DFS play this week and one that some people might overlook due to his lack of distance. If his putter gets hot, he should be able to handle this course better than a lot of players.
Louis Oosthuizen
Odds to win: 80-1
DraftKings: $7600
Victiv: $8000
Oosthuizen won the British Open (in record fashion) the last time it was played at St. Andrews, and I think the course this week has a lot of comparable features. There’s no doubt that Oosthuizen is going to be off the radar for many people because of his recent health woes (he withdrew from Colonial) but before that he had actually been having a very nice season. Oosthuizen is one of the best drivers of the golf ball when healthy and I feel like he can thrive in these sort of conditions. At only $7600 on DraftKings Oosthuizen will still be a pretty huge DFS play at his price if he top tens — which I think is well within his ability on this course. He’s someone who always seems to show up in major championships and I like him as a GPP play who could outscore many more popular options at his price range.
Marc Leishman
Odds to win: 100-1
DraftKings: $7000
Victiv: $7500
Leishman is high on my list this week and someone who I think represents great fantasy value. Leishman has been trending in the right direction ever since his wife’s health improved and he culminated his return to form with a fifth place finish two weeks ago at the Memorial. Leishman has some decent results in major championships, including a top five finish at the Masters a couple years back and also landed a top ten last year at the Open. He shouldn’t be intimidated by the big stage this week. Even though Leishman may be somewhat of a longshot to win because he’s priced so low, you don’t need him to actually win to pay off for DFS purposes. He’s a great mix of good recent form and course fit and someone I’m expecting to have a good showing at Chambers Bay.
Branden Grace
Odds to win: 125-1
DraftKings: $6800
Victiv: $7800
Grace is yet another South African who made my list and is also possibly the most talented. He won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2012, which is played on St. Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbard, a very similarly styled set of courses to this week’s links setup. Grace is a great driver of the ball when he is on and has been showing some good form of late on both tours. Three weeks ago he landed an 11th at the BMW championship at Wentworth and he also has two top tens to his name on the PGA tour over the past two months. I really like the upside this week on Grace and think he offers the best value once you creep under 7K in salary on DraftKings. People might be scared off him due to the unknown factor, but I wouldn’t let that stop you from rostering him this week.
DraftKings “Punt” – Stephen Gallacher
Odds to win: 200-1
DraftKings: $6300
Gallacher is a Scottish player who hasn’t played great this season but recently has shown a bit of return to form. Apart from his improved health and play, there are two things that really interest me about Gallacher this week. The first is his price and potentially very low ownership levels. The second is his great record at St Andrews and the Open Championship. Gallacher won the Alfred Dunhill Links event (the same one Grace did) back in 2004 and has had some of his best finishes at longer links styled venues (including St. Andrews and Whistling Straight in 2010). He recently did an interview with a Scottish newspaper where he had only positive things to say about the course. He has the right attitude this week and I’m hoping his past links experience pays off for him and his fantasy owners this weekend.
Victiv “Punt” – Retief Goosen
Odds to win: 200-1
Victiv: $5500
I like Goosen on both sites but he really is a better bargain on Victiv. Goosen is a former two-time winner of the U.S. Open and has always been one of the best at putting on fast greens. Goosen doesn’t have the length he used to off the tee anymore, but he does have a lot of experience playing long tough golf courses. Goosen may not be a sexy pick this week, but this is not really a week for sexy golf (whatever that is). Whenever par is a good score, I think that favors Goosen’s style of game and I really like him as a 6th or option this weekend on Victiv. He’ll have a good shot at getting you four rounds of points and a decent finishing position.