PGA First Look: Arnold Palmer Invitational

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-03-06 01:14:12

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

The Honda Classic was hands-down the best finish that we’ve had on the PGA Tour so far this season. While the Waste Management was fun to watch given everything that took place, I much prefer finishes where golfers are all playing their best on Sunday. Ryan Palmer went out before the winds picked up and shot a seven-under round. At the time, many thought that number would get him into a playoff or even win the tournament outright. Brooks Koepka made a strong run to post the clubhouse lead at eight-under, which was then tied by Rickie Fowler a few minutes later. It all came down to Keith Mitchell, who put together a tremendous back nine. He needed a birdie on his final hole to win by one stroke. He drove it into the bunker and was forced to lay up. After hitting his approach to 15 feet, I was gearing up for a playoff (especially since I had the Koepka outright). It wasn’t to be though, as Mitchell had ice in his veins and nailed the putt to claim his first win on tour.

After that epic finish, I was pumped for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While there is still excitement there, it definitely took a hit after Tiger Woods withdrew from the tournament due to a strained neck. Tiger has won this event eight times and was already locked into my DFS lineups. Hopefully, he won’t miss an extended period of time, as the Players Championship is next week at TPC Sawgrass. As for this week, we have a stacked field with 31 of the top 50 golfers in the world set to tee it up at Bay Hill. Given that this event has invitational status, the field will be a bit smaller than usual. With only 123 golfers teeing it up this week, a high percentage of the field is going to make the cut, which will likely lead to a higher percentage of 6/6 lineups in DFS (depending on how the chalk fares).

Bay Hill is Par 72 that measures 7,419 yards. It features four par fives, which are the easiest holes on the course. The par threes and par fours play tough, so golfers will need to take advantage of the scoring holes. This track is a good overall test of golf that features thick rough and fast bermuda greens. There was a renovation here in 2015 that widened and lengthened the fairways. While the bigger fairways help scoring, they offset the changes by removing a lot of the rough right in front of the bunkers and water hazards. There is now a much higher chance of a ball rolling into the hazards.

Even though a few bombers have fared well here, this isn’t a course that you can overpower off the tee. Over the years, driving accuracy is 5% higher than tour average, while driving distance is six yards lower. In other words, position off the tee is a little more important than distance. Total driving or strokes gained off the tee is better than raw driving distance. The greens are fairly difficult to hit here, while scrambling is right around tour average. We have seen a lot of three-putts here in the past, likely due to the fast bermuda greens.

Approach play will be critical once again and many shots will be hit with long irons (all par threes measure 199+ yards). Ideally, we want to find a good ball striker that doesn’t bleed strokes around the green and that can get hot with the putter (i.e. Rory McIlroy here last season). I will be giving a larger weight to course history than usual, as the same golfers tend to play well here year in and year out. We could see slightly better scoring conditions than usual, as the winds are very light in this week’s forecast.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event:Rory McIlroy (2018), Marc Leishman (2017), Jason Day (2016), Matt Every (2015 & 2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)

Sports Betting Card

YTD: 2 wins, +12 units

We had one of those “close but no cigar” type of weeks. We had a two-unit bet on Brooks Koepka and he made the Sunday charge that we were looking for. Unfortunately, he missed out on the playoff after Keith Mitchell nailed that birdie putt on his final hole. We also fell just shy on our Jason Kokrak top five bet, who finished in a tie for ninth. With nothing to show for last week, it drops our season total down to +12 units. I’m only making three outright bets this week, as I expect the winner to be an elite golfer. However, I do love some of these top five bets for the long shots.

Outright Bets

Bryson DeChambeau 16/1
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 33/1

Top Five Bets

Jason Kokrak 12/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello 12/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 18/1
Talor Gooch 25/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	Cuts	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Rory McIlroy	$11,400	$12,200	$18,200	6	7	0%	0%	0%	4/4	1	4	27	11	500
Justin Rose	$10,700	$12,100	$17,200	2	11	0%	0%	0%	3/4	3	13	9	500	101
Rickie Fowler	$10,400	$11,500	$17,100	7	12	-33%	0%	-33%	3/4	14	12	500	29	93
Brooks Koepka	$10,200	$11,400	$17,100	3	11	25%	40%	0%	1/2	500	72	500	500	26
Jason Day	$9,900	$11,700	$16,800	11	14	0%	-67%	0%	4/4	22	23	1	17	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$9,700	$11,200	$16,400	5	16	0%	0%	0%	2/2	2	500	27	500	500
Marc Leishman	$9,500	$10,800	$15,500	18	26	-14%	11%	0%	4/5	7	1	17	75	31
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300	$11,000	$15,600	27	24	13%	0%	0%	4/4	49	45	6	21	500
Phil Mickelson	$9,200	$10,900	$14,800	20	39	-33%	-50%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,100	$10,600	$15,300	14	32	10%	18%	0%	2/2	26	10	500	500	500
Francesco Molinari	$9,000	$10,700	$15,200	10	32	9%	0%	0%	5/5	26	7	9	17	5
Patrick Reed	$8,900	$10,500	$15,100	16	34	8%	8%	0%	2/2	7	500	500	500	52
Billy Horschel	$8,800	$10,200	$14,300	39	48	-38%	-20%	-20%	5/5	54	13	20	43	43
Tyrrell Hatton	$8,700	$9,200	$14,100	33	58	-57%	35%	-10%	2/2	69	4	500	500	500
Charles Howell	$8,600	$10,000	$14,200	47	46	7%	22%	26%	5/5	14	56	46	21	35
Daniel Berger	$8,500	$9,600	$14,000	70	59	-44%	12%	-10%	1/1	500	500	500	13	500
Keegan Bradley	$8,400	$9,100	$14,000	32	53	-18%	46%	5%	5/5	26	34	36	49	2
Jason Kokrak	$8,300	$9,500	$13,900	101	59	-33%	14%	0%	4/5	86	56	20	6	4
Lucas Glover	$8,200	$10,000	$14,300	92	47	21%	17%	0%	4/5	49	7	27	102	14
Henrik Stenson	$8,100	$10,300	$14,300	36	51	5%	-36%	-27%	4/5	4	80	3	2	5
Ian Poulter	$8,000	$10,100	$14,600	30	43	38%	19%	0%	5/5	41	41	46	21	20
Bubba Watson	$8,000	$10,400	$14,400	17	47	24%	-23%	-14%	2/2	66	34	500	500	500
Luke List	$7,900	$9,100	$13,400	71	75	-22%	24%	3%	2/2	7	17	500	500	500
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,900	$10,100	$14,300	25	48	26%	-6%	-13%	2/3	105	28	500	9	500
J.B. Holmes	$7,800	$9,900	$13,400	43	77	-20%	-50%	-3%	2/3	41	500	500	72	10
Si Woo Kim	$7,800	$9,200	$13,800	52	61	0%	26%	4%	2/3	110	49	63	500	500
Zach Johnson	$7,700	$9,800	$13,100	79	79	-19%	-45%	0%	5/5	26	66	5	9	43
Adam Hadwin	$7,700	$9,300	$13,200	65	79	-15%	3%	0%	2/2	500	6	36	500	500
Michael Thompson	$7,600	$9,600	$13,500	123	77	0%	-12%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Cameron Champ	$7,600	$9,100	$13,000	82	86	-14%	11%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello	$7,500	$9,900	$14,000	34	57	32%	-5%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Byeong-Hun An	$7,500	$9,700	$13,500	54	73	13%	-13%	0%	3/3	14	49	36	500	500
Keith Mitchell	$7,500	$8,800	$12,900	68	95	-23%	22%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matt Wallace	$7,400	$9,000	$13,000	37	92	-6%	10%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matt Every	$7,400	$8,400	$12,700	435	100	-21%	45%	-5%	3/5	105	62	78	1	1
Hao-Tong Li	$7,400	$9,400	$13,900	35	65	24%	13%	-8%	1/1	54	500	500	500	500
Charl Schwartzel	$7,400	$9,200	$13,000	95	88	-3%	-3%	-6%	1/2	96	45	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$7,300	$9,400	$12,600	90	107	-13%	-43%	-2%	4/4	5	34	74	500	60
Scott Piercy	$7,300	$9,700	$12,500	111	108	-16%	-83%	0%	0/1	86	500	500	500	500
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,300	$9,000	$13,000	44	87	11%	15%	-3%	2/4	86	13	27	500	110
Abraham Ancer	$7,300	$8,400	$12,500	61	117	-24%	37%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Beau Hossler	$7,300	$8,700	$12,100	93	141	-45%	0%	-2%	1/1	66	500	500	500	500
Kevin Na	$7,200	$8,900	$12,400	56	112	-5%	0%	2%	3/4	36	72	500	6	14
Kevin Kisner	$7,200	$9,000	$13,000	48	93	14%	8%	-12%	2/4	105	2	96	49	500
Brandt Snedeker	$7,200	$9,800	$12,600	55	102	2%	-91%	0%	4/5	96	28	36	13	8
Chesson Hadley	$7,200	$9,300	$11,800	77	160	-40%	-88%	-2%	3/3	49	500	500	67	26
Scott Stallings	$7,200	$8,300	$11,500	160	190	-70%	8%	-1%	0/3	77	500	500	108	103
Martin Kaymer	$7,200	$8,600	$11,800	190	169	-58%	-13%	-15%	1/1	500	23	500	500	500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$7,100	$9,500	$12,700	38	97	20%	-39%	0%	2/3	86	500	6	6	500
Thorbjorn Olesen	$7,100	$8,400	$12,400	46	121	-2%	33%	-9%	0/1	500	102	500	500	500
Steve Stricker	$7,100	$8,700	$11,400	305	188	-47%	-31%	4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shane Lowry	$7,100	$8,900	$12,700	45	100	18%	11%	-3%	0/2	86	500	500	85	500
JT Poston	$7,100	$8,600	$12,100	224	138	-10%	10%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kyle Stanley	$7,100	$8,200	$11,600	40	183	-43%	16%	-3%	2/2	14	17	500	500	500
Sungjae Im	$7,000	$9,000	$12,300	88	112	18%	-13%	6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Charley Hoffman	$7,000	$8,900	$12,200	80	133	7%	-13%	-4%	2/2	14	2	500	500	500
Aaron Wise	$7,000	$8,800	$12,200	58	119	11%	0%	0%	1/1	41	500	500	500	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$7,000	$8,700	$12,000	124	141	0%	0%	4%	2/2	500	500	46	500	43
Danny Willett	$7,000	$8,100	$12,200	73	133	7%	43%	-4%	1/1	500	500	500	29	500
Brian Gay	$7,000	$9,000	$11,800	126	166	-16%	-60%	-8%	1/2	22	500	500	500	120
Pat Perez	$7,000	$8,500	$11,600	83	182	-25%	-5%	-1%	2/3	500	17	500	89	67
Graeme McDowell	$6,900	$8,900	$12,100	259	142	8%	-27%	-6%	3/5	22	28	96	75	10
Harold Varner	$6,900	$8,700	$11,900	150	155	5%	-7%	-2%	1/2	500	34	96	500	500
Nate Lashley	$6,900	$8,500	$11,400	370	213	-34%	-26%	-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$6,900	$8,700	$11,800	165	153	6%	-5%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Patrick Rodgers	$6,900	$8,800	$12,200	142	133	18%	-4%	-4%	2/3	7	113	20	500	500
Chris Kirk	$6,900	$8,600	$11,400	186	212	-32%	-37%	-9%	3/5	13	93	12	89	60
Harris English	$6,900	$8,100	$11,600	290	183	-13%	21%	-3%	3/5	22	106	78	29	14
Talor Gooch	$6,800	$8,800	$12,200	146	118	30%	2%	2%	1/1	26	500	500	500	500
C.T. Pan	$6,800	$8,500	$11,800	107	161	12%	8%	-3%	2/2	41	56	500	500	500
Eddie Pepperell	$6,800	$8,200	$11,600	42	168	4%	20%	3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Bill Haas	$6,800	$8,600	$11,400	280	210	-16%	-33%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kevin Streelman	$6,800	$8,200	$11,400	175	215	-25%	-4%	-15%	3/4	41	70	109	67	500
Roger Sloan	$6,800		$11,500	276	205	-10%		-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sam Ryder	$6,700	$8,500	$11,200	159	232	-17%	-33%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Adam Schenk	$6,700	$8,000	$11,400	308	207	-3%	19%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sung Kang	$6,700	$8,500	$11,800	198	162	17%	6%	-5%	1/2	58	500	117	500	500
Martin Laird	$6,700	$8,600	$11,800	235	167	13%	-8%	-10%	5/5	26	49	43	43	76
Jason Dufner	$6,700	$8,100	$11,000	166	263	-35%	-13%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sam Horsfield	$6,700	$7,000	$11,400	172	213	-11%	28%	-11%	1/1	14	500	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$6,600	$8,300	$11,800	102	168	19%	16%	-12%	3/5	96	17	96	17	31
Aaron Baddeley	$6,600	$8,200	$11,700	223	163	22%	24%	6%	2/3	500	41	90	500	35
Ernie Els	$6,600	$8,100	$11,400	359	207	5%	13%	-3%	3/4	49	93	74	13	500
Braden Thornberry	$6,600	$7,000	$10,400	1044	370	-36%	5%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
J.J. Spaun	$6,600	$8,400	$11,000	129	250	-16%	-25%	1%	1/1	500	49	500	500	500
Scott Langley	$6,600	$8,800	$11,000	221	257	-19%	-96%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Vaughn Taylor	$6,500	$8,500	$11,300	228	237	-5%	-38%	-6%	1/2	500	23	78	500	500
Austin Cook	$6,500	$8,300	$11,500	141	193	15%	6%	-3%	1/1	36	500	500	500	500
Sam Saunders	$6,500	$7,800	$11,200	263	233	-2%	12%	1%	2/5	77	72	96	29	43
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,500	$8,200	$10,800	300	293	-20%	-25%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jimmy Walker	$6,500	$8,500	$11,400	97	210	8%	-21%	-7%	1/1	73	500	500	500	500
Hudson Swafford	$6,500	$8,100	$11,100	253	255	-9%	-7%	-1%	3/5	119	10	36	11	117
Carlos Ortiz	$6,400	$7,700	$11,000	289	260	-5%	6%	-3%	1/1	500	500	500	21	500
Andrew Landry	$6,400	$7,600	$10,700	120	292	-11%	3%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Brendan Steele	$6,400	$8,500	$11,200	145	238	1%	-39%	-2%	3/3	500	500	46	35	20
Brian Harman	$6,400	$8,500	$11,300	78	233	4%	-35%	-3%	3/5	54	13	17	102	84
Martin Trainer	$6,400	$7,500	$10,900	131	273	-10%	6%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Hunter Mahan	$6,400	$7,700	$10,300	378	380	-20%	-8%	0%	2/3	77	500	57	57	500
Corey Conners	$6,300	$7,900	$11,000	199	260	1%	1%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sam Burns	$6,300	$8,300	$11,400	117	202	24%	5%	0%	1/1	49	500	500	500	500
Joel Dahmen	$6,300	$8,600	$11,000	173	257	3%	-60%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Vijay Singh	$6,300	$7,800	$11,300	459	227	12%	14%	-1%	2/5	105	72	90	57	20
Davis Love	$6,300	$8,000	$10,600	452	323	-8%	-13%	0%	4/4	58	500	68	65	26
Justin Suh	$6,300	$7,300	$10,300		397	-15%	-2%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Stewart Cink	$6,200	$8,800	$11,300	89	208	25%	-61%	8%	3/5	58	28	90	75	66
Ryan Armour	$6,200	$8,000	$11,400	109	213	21%	13%	-11%	0/1	120	500	500	500	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,200	$8,200	$11,000	232	260	7%	-18%	-3%	2/2	41	34	500	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$6,200	$7,900	$11,200	178	243	11%	6%	-3%	1/2	75	93	500	500	500
Ryan Blaum	$6,200	$7,400	$10,300	299	410	-10%	-6%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Michael Kim	$6,200	$7,100	$10,200	303	553	-12%	-3%	0%	1/1	500	17	500	500	500
Richy Werenski	$6,100	$8,000	$10,700	184	297	5%	-11%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ted Potter	$6,100	$8,100	$10,300	116	427	-5%	-31%	-4%	0/1	116	500	500	500	500
Brice Garnett	$6,100	$7,300	$10,300	133	390	-2%	-1%	-1%	0/1	500	500	500	500	103
Tim Herron	$6,100	$7,200	$10,100	875	700	-8%	-5%	-1%	1/5	86	62	114	95	93
D.A. Points	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100	643	654	-7%	-3%	0%	1/3	96	500	500	17	93
Robert Gamez	$6,100	$7,000	$10,000		1883	-9%	-4%	0%	0/5	115	115	119	115	120
Bronson Burgoon	$6,000	$7,400	$10,700	136	303	9%	3%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Anders Albertson	$6,000	$7,400	$10,400	249	370	6%	-1%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Robert Streb	$6,000	$7,800	$10,500	226	363	8%	-7%	0%	0/3	77	500	96	108	500
Adam Long	$6,000	$7,600	$10,300	137	397	3%	-8%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Viktor Hovland	$6,000	$7,000	$10,400	1133	367	7%	6%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Rod Perry	$6,000	$7,000	$10,000		2067	-4%	-5%	-1%	0/2	500	500	500	110	90

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend