PGA First Look: Desert Classic

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

Matt Kuchar was able to hold off Andrew Putnam last week to pick up his second win in his last three tournaments. He was featured in the First Look as an outright bet and featured in my weekly cash game article, so it was certainly a solid week for yours truly. The Hawaii swing is now over, as the PGA Tour heads to California for the Desert Classic. This tournament was previously known as the CareerBuilder Challenge and was the Humana Challenge before that. This is a pro-am event that is played over three different courses. We’ll cover each of the courses in detail below. The key difference this week is the cut rule. Each golfers will play each of the three courses before the cut, which means the cut won’t take place until after Saturday’s round. If more than 78 golfers make the cut, only the top 60 and ties will end up playing on Sunday. With an extra round for all golfers, it’s a good week to chase upside rather than safety.

Given the fact that this is a pro-am that is being played on three resort courses, we can expect plenty of birdies again this week. Here is a breakdown of each of the three courses:

PGA West TPC Stadium: – This course is a Par 72 that measures 7,113 yards. It is the toughest of the three and will be played for two different rounds (one of the first three rounds and then again on Sunday). Even though it’s technically more difficult than the other two, it’s still very gettable. It has ranked in the bottom 20 in difficulty on tour in each of the last three seasons.

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament: – This course is a Par 72 that measures 7,159 yards. It has ranked in the bottom 12 in difficulty on tour in each of the last three seasons.

La Quinta Country Club: – This course is a Par 72 that measures 7,060 yards. It has ranked in the bottom three in difficulty on tour in each of the last three seasons.

These courses feature two main similarities — they all have four par fives and they all have bermuda greens that are overseeded with poa. Golfers will need to take advantage of the two easier courses if they are going to make the cut and ultimately contend. From a DFS standpoint, this event is a little frustrating to watch. We don’t have ShotLink data on the two easier courses and play will be slow given the fact that this is a pro-am event. The final note on the courses is that the Stadium Course was added to the event back in 2016. Any course history data before that year isn’t as valuable.

There are a couple of trends that I will be focusing on this week. Eight of the last nine winners of this event played in one of the two events in Hawaii that year. Additionally, each of the last six winners of this event had already played the event prior to their win. As far as the type of golfer to target, most of the strokes gained here (at least at the Stadium Course) have been through approaches and putting (very similar to last week). It definitely sets up more as a second-shot type of tournament, although I will note that the last two winners (Jon Rahm & Hudson Swafford) both ranked inside the top five in strokes gained off the tee during the week that they won. Par five scoring will be important, especially on the two easier courses.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first three rounds. The MDF rule is applied a bit differently this week — if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut, only the top 60 and ties will play on Sunday.

Recent Winners of this Event: Jon Rahm (2018), Hudson Swafford (2017), Jason Dufner (2016), Bill Haas (2015), Patrick Reed (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Par 5 Scoring
3) Birdie or Better Percentage
4) Proximity Blend
5) Strokes Gained Putting

Betting Card

Season wins: 1
Units +/-: +35 units

As noted in last week’s article, my bets each week are not featured in the First Look. Golf betting is a different animal than other sports, as we aren’t expecting to pick a winner each week, but rather hit enough over the course of the season to make a profit. Luckily, we got off to a hot start at the Sony Open hitting Matt Kuchar at 40/1. We have a small betting card this week because I will be betting two units on the favorite.

Jon Rahm (two units): 7/1
Chez Reavie: 33/1
Scott Piercy: 40/1
Hudson Swafford: 50/1
Si Woo Kim: 50/1

RotoAcademy

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Jon Rahm $11,600 $11,900 $18,600 7 6 0% 50% 0% 2/2 1 34 500 500 500
Justin Rose $11,000 $12,100 $18,100 1 9 0% -100% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Patrick Cantlay $10,600 $11,300 $16,500 19 18 0% 0% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charles Howell $10,300 $11,100 $16,100 55 21 0% 0% 0% 5/5 20 12 11 56 58
Adam Hadwin $10,000 $10,700 $15,900 70 25 0% 17% 0% 4/4 3 2 6 48 500
Andrew Putnam $9,700 $10,500 $15,700 45 28 0% 25% 0% 1/2 17 500 500 124 500
Aaron Wise $9,400 $10,100 $15,400 52 31 13% 53% 0% 2/2 17 34 500 500 500
Abraham Ancer $9,300 $9,900 $15,400 57 33 11% 58% -14% 1/2 76 500 121 500 500
Chez Reavie $9,200 $9,800 $15,200 54 35 10% 61% 0% 3/4 36 12 17 98 500
Phil Mickelson $9,500 $10,600 $15,100 34 38 -43% -43% 0% 3/4 104 21 3 24 500
Scott Piercy $9,100 $9,500 $15,000 133 41 0% 63% 0% 3/4 6 41 500 30 85
Patton Kizzire $8,700 $9,400 $15,000 88 41 13% 58% -18% 3/3 42 50 42 500 500
Lucas Glover $8,600 $9,800 $14,800 140 43 13% 39% -8% 4/5 29 41 17 15 94
Luke List $9,000 $10,100 $14,800 60 41 0% 20% 8% 2/3 121 41 6 500 500
Kevin Kisner $8,900 $9,600 $14,800 39 44 -15% 46% -15% 3/4 50 25 500 82 48
Zach Johnson $7,700 $10,300 $14,500 69 48 38% -45% 0% 2/5 20 87 97 73 3
Hudson Swafford $8,300 $8,200 $14,500 214 49 5% 71% -13% 4/5 29 1 56 73 25
Sungjae Im $8,100 $8,800 $14,500 92 49 19% 61% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Peter Uihlein $7,700 $9,000 $14,400 87 53 27% 50% 0% 1/1 17 500 500 500 500
Daniel Berger $7,700 $10,800 $14,300 61 55 19% -320% -5% 0/1 500 500 500 82 500
Ryan Palmer $8,200 $10,200 $14,300 73 54 0% -54% 0% 4/5 20 102 17 10 2
Charl Schwartzel $7,900 $8,900 $14,300 84 55 4% 45% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Corey Conners $7,500 $8,700 $14,100 181 63 24% 47% -9% 1/1 50 500 500 500 500
Beau Hossler $8,000 $10,500 $14,100 91 63 -18% -225% -13% 1/1 20 500 500 500 500
Russell Knox $7,800 $9,400 $14,100 66 64 -13% 13% -17% 2/3 29 500 500 93 13
Brian Harman $8,800 $10,200 $14,100 58 62 -64% -77% 0% 4/4 20 3 11 500 82
J.J. Spaun $8,500 $10,000 $14,000 112 62 -41% -41% 11% 1/2 90 50 500 500 500
Richy Werenski $7,600 $9,600 $14,000 164 67 0% -4% -7% 2/2 29 9 500 500 500
C.T. Pan $8,400 $9,300 $13,900 101 68 -78% 3% -10% 0/2 78 128 500 500 500
Joaquin Niemann $7,600 $10,400 $13,900 155 68 -7% -210% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $7,400 $9,800 $13,900 157 70 8% -48% -17% 0/3 138 78 79 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,500 $9,200 $13,900 64 67 15% 20% 3% 1/1 500 500 9 500 500
Brendan Steele $7,600 $10,300 $13,900 116 68 -14% -200% -14% 4/5 20 6 34 2 94
Danny Willett $7,800 $8,200 $13,900 79 67 -25% 52% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Russell Henley $7,300 $9,900 $13,500 99 80 10% -100% -9% 1/2 500 102 49 500 500
Dylan Frittelli $7,500 $8,600 $13,500 74 75 -6% 31% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Pat Perez $7,300 $9,800 $13,400 68 76 14% -57% 3% 2/3 500 500 71 30 58
Brian Gay $7,300 $8,800 $13,400 136 84 5% 9% -8% 1/4 42 123 132 500 94
Bud Cauley $7,400 $9,900 $13,400 223 86 -11% -116% -11% 3/4 14 3 14 500 136
Jason Dufner $7,400 $8,900 $13,400 125 84 -5% 3% -5% 3/4 36 25 1 82 500
Chesson Hadley $7,600 $10,000 $13,300 65 80 -28% -118% 10% 1/4 42 500 97 142 149
Andrew Landry $7,200 $8,000 $13,300 105 87 10% 37% -5% 1/2 2 500 79 500 500
Bill Haas $7,400 $9,800 $13,100 213 87 -14% -83% 2% 4/5 97 17 9 1 6
Martin Laird $7,300 $9,300 $12,900 216 98 -19% -52% -14% 4/5 127 9 49 15 25
Ryan Armour $7,100 $8,200 $12,900 107 95 18% 27% -2% 1/3 112 66 500 124 500
Anders Albertson $7,200 $8,400 $12,900 230 98 0% 17% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $7,500 $9,900 $12,900 59 96 -39% -142% -5% 2/4 500 123 79 2 9
Denny McCarthy $7,400 $9,200 $12,900 177 94 -19% -26% 0% 0/1 90 500 500 500 500
Chris Kirk $7,200 $8,900 $12,900 166 97 2% -18% -7% 2/3 78 21 500 56 500
Anirban Lahiri $7,300 $8,700 $12,800 150 106 -26% -13% -6% 2/2 500 25 28 500 500
Jhonattan Vegas $7,100 $8,600 $12,800 127 98 11% 4% 2% 3/5 11 34 121 107 84
Harris English $7,200 $7,500 $12,800 308 104 -6% 43% -2% 3/3 11 500 500 30 33
Jamie Lovemark $7,300 $9,000 $12,800 162 105 -24% -37% -4% 1/3 500 138 6 500 105
Nick Watney $7,200 $9,100 $12,600 144 108 -13% -46% 0% 2/4 50 87 112 14 500
Sam Ryder $7,100 $8,800 $12,600 152 119 0% -25% -2% 1/1 50 500 500 500 500
Jason Kokrak $7,100 $8,700 $12,500 131 125 -4% -21% -2% 2/4 8 500 97 48 94
James Hahn $7,000 $8,000 $12,400 161 124 10% 18% 2% 3/3 36 500 500 20 38
Brandon Harkins $6,900 $7,800 $12,300 269 134 17% 25% 0% 1/1 8 500 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,900 $7,300 $12,200 241 138 16% 42% 0% 1/4 104 78 500 98 5
JT Poston $7,200 $8,400 $12,200 313 138 -25% -3% -2% 1/2 141 34 500 500 500
Sam Burns $6,900 $8,300 $12,200 126 144 11% -2% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $7,000 $7,600 $12,100 197 149 -2% 26% -2% 4/5 69 72 132 24 38
Hunter Mahan $7,000 $7,600 $12,100 368 156 -5% 24% -5% 1/2 42 78 500 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,800 $7,900 $12,100 238 150 18% 11% -3% 1/4 8 114 147 148 500
Ryan Blaum $6,800 $8,500 $12,000 267 160 14% -26% -3% 1/2 78 25 500 500 500
Kevin Streelman $7,000 $8,500 $12,000 194 159 -6% -25% -2% 3/4 29 114 11 41 500
Aaron Baddeley $7,000 $7,800 $12,000 285 164 -10% 12% -5% 2/3 500 75 42 500 94
Ollie Schniederjans $7,100 $8,100 $12,000 192 164 -25% -6% -6% 1/2 500 58 148 500 500
Bronson Burgoon $7,200 $8,900 $11,900 104 143 -27% -53% 12% 2/2 42 500 34 500 500
Scott Brown $6,800 $7,200 $11,900 326 171 9% 34% -3% 3/5 63 58 137 82 48
Matt Jones $7,000 $7,300 $11,900 273 169 -13% 31% -1% 3/4 112 500 34 41 13
Roberto Castro $6,900 $8,700 $11,800 312 181 -6% -57% -3% 3/3 500 50 56 500 25
Sebastian Munoz $6,500 $7,100 $11,800 250 171 31% 39% 0% 0/1 500 138 500 500 500
Michael Thompson $6,700 $8,500 $11,800 317 185 9% -47% -8% 1/2 500 114 28 500 500
Dominic Bozzelli $6,400 $11,800 418 171 36% 0% 1/2 152 5 500 500 500
Chase Wright $7,000 $7,200 $11,800 232 182 -23% 29% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nate Lashley $7,100 $8,500 $11,700 479 205 -62% -68% -16% 1/1 29 500 500 500 500
Whee Kim $6,600 $8,100 $11,700 137 185 18% -20% -1% 1/4 138 17 87 93 500
Scott Stallings $6,700 $8,000 $11,700 219 185 9% -15% -1% 3/5 78 8 500 64 58
Robert Streb $6,700 $7,800 $11,700 186 190 5% -6% -6% 0/1 500 500 97 500 500
Nick Taylor $6,500 $7,900 $11,700 316 200 18% -18% -10% 2/4 20 34 71 82 500
David Hearn $6,600 $7,700 $11,700 492 184 19% 6% 0% 1/5 121 58 97 134 126
Sean O’Hair $7,000 $7,200 $11,700 212 182 -21% 30% 3% 4/5 50 9 28 41 85
Carlos Ortiz $6,500 $7,100 $11,700 347 188 22% 32% -5% 0/2 500 500 71 82 500
Cameron Davis $6,800 $8,100 $11,700 113 190 -5% -26% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kramer Hickok $6,900 $7,800 $11,700 170 193 -20% -9% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Langley $6,900 $7,600 $11,700 306 201 -23% -1% -12% 1/3 500 500 87 116 18
Adam Schenk $6,800 $7,900 $11,600 279 210 -15% -25% -2% 0/1 104 500 500 500 500
Jonathan Byrd $6,500 $7,300 $11,600 489 203 16% 15% 1% 1/2 112 500 500 500 58
Grayson Murray $6,600 $7,700 $11,600 264 217 2% -13% -6% 2/2 14 12 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,500 $7,200 $11,600 266 204 15% 18% 0% 2/2 57 50 500 500 500
Martin Piller $6,700 $7,200 $11,600 382 215 -7% 14% -5% 2/2 3 500 24 500 500
Vaughn Taylor $6,700 $8,400 $11,500 305 217 -9% -62% -1% 1/2 97 41 500 500 500
Seamus Power $6,900 $7,400 $11,500 366 221 -37% -2% -3% 2/2 11 21 500 500 500
Benjamin Silverman $6,700 $7,900 $11,500 297 224 -13% -35% -4% 1/1 77 500 500 500 500
Stephan Jaeger $6,500 $7,800 $11,500 255 214 13% -18% 2% 0/1 144 500 500 500 500
Fabian Gomez $6,600 $7,500 $11,400 579 220 0% -6% 2% 1/3 121 78 500 30 500
Peter Malnati $6,300 $7,300 $11,300 302 247 16% -1% -5% 1/4 78 77 71 500 105
Shawn Stefani $6,600 $7,200 $11,300 338 247 -8% 4% -5% 2/4 141 41 97 15 500
John Huh $6,900 $7,400 $11,300 342 246 -46% -9% -4% 3/4 3 148 24 30 500
Talor Gooch $6,400 $7,700 $11,300 346 233 13% -20% 0% 1/1 67 500 500 500 500
Brandon Hagy $6,600 $8,000 $11,300 464 254 -12% -56% -8% 1/2 500 58 500 73 500
Tom Hoge $6,600 $7,200 $11,300 272 235 -4% 7% -1% 1/3 57 500 87 134 500
Robert Garrigus $6,800 $7,500 $11,300 369 240 -29% -12% -3% 4/5 57 17 49 72 94
Tom Lovelady $6,800 $7,400 $11,300 352 258 -38% -15% -10% 1/1 29 500 500 500 500
Roger Sloan $6,400 $7,000 $11,300 435 236 12% 19% -2% 0/1 500 500 500 116 500
Johnson Wagner $6,300 $8,500 $11,200 441 260 10% -108% -3% 1/4 133 97 112 500 25
Alex Cejka $6,700 $7,400 $11,200 352 269 -33% -21% -7% 3/4 50 87 42 15 500
Alex Prugh $6,600 $7,000 $11,200 421 247 -8% 17% 4% 1/1 500 500 500 64 500
Tyler Duncan $6,300 $7,500 $11,200 407 259 11% -21% -2% 0/1 78 500 500 500 500
John Catlin $6,700 $7,000 $11,200 110 265 -29% 10% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sang-Moon Bae $6,200 $7,000 $11,200 329 267 14% 9% -6% 0/2 97 500 500 500 85
Ben Crane $6,800 $7,600 $11,100 397 265 -42% -31% 2% 3/5 42 78 24 107 9
Chris Stroud $6,600 $7,100 $11,100 284 291 -22% 3% -3% 2/4 69 500 62 137 94
Adam Svensson $6,500 $7,000 $11,100 416 279 -11% 7% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Knous $6,500 $7,300 $11,000 539 255 -3% -5% 8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ben Martin $6,700 $7,600 $10,900 391 294 -36% -38% 0% 2/4 57 102 34 500 111
George Cunningham $7,100 $7,000 $10,900 349 313 -116% 4% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wes Roach $6,300 $7,000 $10,900 424 317 0% 2% -4% 1/2 500 500 34 500 117
Julian Etulain $6,300 $7,400 $10,900 344 303 3% -26% -1% 0/1 500 138 500 500 500
Seth Reeves $6,400 $7,900 $10,800 454 315 -7% -68% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Derek Fathauer $6,100 $10,800 457 314 14% 1% 1/4 36 128 87 107 500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,300 $7,000 $10,700 355 324 -1% 1% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,300 $7,000 $10,700 673 344 -2% 0% -1% 2/4 90 500 49 137 69
D.J. Trahan $6,400 $10,600 928 354 -11% 0% 1/5 97 128 132 64 154
Nicholas Lindheim $6,400 $10,600 371 375 -12% -2% 1/2 136 50 500 500 500
Cameron Tringale $6,500 $7,200 $10,600 589 382 -23% -20% -2% 3/5 104 138 14 30 38
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,100 $7,000 $10,500 343 368 10% -2% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Curtis Luck $6,200 $7,400 $10,500 499 400 -1% -40% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Gore $6,400 $10,500 694 386 -15% -2% 1/3 150 500 17 82 500
Hank Lebioda $6,200 $7,100 $10,400 473 417 -2% -13% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Josh Teater $6,100 $7,000 $10,400 429 419 4% -9% -3% 1/1 500 500 500 500 33
Sepp Straka $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 427 385 2% -4% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wyndham Clark $6,100 $7,400 $10,400 364 406 5% -41% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Steve Marino $6,000 $7,100 $10,400 709 425 7% -14% -4% 0/1 500 87 500 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 733 397 11% -6% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roberto Diaz $6,300 $7,000 $10,400 744 442 -13% -11% -5% 0/1 144 500 500 500 500
D.A. Points $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 508 425 -20% -10% -4% 2/2 500 66 66 500 500
John Senden $6,200 $7,200 $10,400 855 450 -7% -31% -7% 1/3 500 144 71 500 69
Rod Pampling $6,300 $7,400 $10,400 835 447 -14% -48% -6% 1/2 133 500 49 500 500
J.J. Henry $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 624 489 4% -14% 0% 2/4 104 102 500 48 82
Chad Collins $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 781 558 -11% -18% -4% 2/4 500 97 112 41 8
Brady Schnell $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 390 558 1% -18% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Trainer $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 295 558 -4% -18% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
John Chin $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 494 542 2% -16% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Jones $6,400 $7,200 $10,300 303 500 -26% -33% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Long $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 417 500 -8% -15% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Max Homa $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 854 542 -10% -16% -2% 0/2 500 128 500 93 500
Chris Thompson $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 372 615 -7% -21% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cooper Musselman $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 664 -17% -23% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charles Reiter $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 781 -5% -24% -3% 0/1 127 500 500 500 500
Will MacKenzie $6,000 $7,200 $10,200 628 -3% -41% -1% 1/3 500 144 140 500 13
Joey Garber $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 439 597 -1% -20% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mark Wilson $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 629 -3% -23% -2% 2/5 149 138 56 30 126
Michael Block $6,000 $7,200 $10,100 1019 -6% -46% -1% 0/1 112 500 500 500 500
Mike Weir $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 928 -11% -25% 0% 0/3 144 500 500 150 117

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious