PGA First Look: Farmers Insurance Open

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. This is one of the most stacked fields we have seen in a long time at this event, as 12 of the top 20 and 24 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings are set to tee it up at Torrey Pines. If you didn’t care for the three-course rotation last week, you may not be excited to hear that there are two courses in rotation this week. Golfers will each play the North Course and the South Course on Thursday and Friday. After that, a cut will be made and the final two rounds will take place at the South Course.

Given the fact that three of the four rounds will be played on the South Course and that we don’t have any ShotLink data for the North Course, we will focus our attention on the former. It is a Par 72 that measures a whopping 7,698 yards. It features four par fives (all over 560 yards), four par threes (three over 200 yards), and 12 par fours (six over 450 yards). The course features narrow fairways, thick rough, and poa annua greens. While length is certainly an advantage, it’s interesting to note that strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting have been the two areas where top ten finishers have excelled the most.

It’s imperative for golfers to take advantage of their single round on the North Course, although it’s played a littler tougher since the renovation in 2016. Last year, the North Course was around a stroke and a half easier than the South Course. The North Course is a Par 72 that measures 7,250 yards. There are four par fives that golfers will be able to score on. The key difference on this course (other than the length) is that it features bentgrass greens.

Overall, we should be looking to target the class golfers in this field, as 17 of the last 20 winners here are major champions. Last week, we followed the fade the Stadium Course golfers in round one narrative to little success. One statistic that you will hear often this week is that each of the last eight winners of the event started on the South Course. Take that for what you will. I highly doubt it will end up impacting any of my decisions this week. I’m not going to solely focus on bombers, but I will be taking the extremely short hitters out of my player pool. Golfers will need to hit their long irons well, score on the par fives, and be solid on and around the greens.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Jason Day (2018), Jon Rahm (2017), Brandt Snedeker (2016), Jason Day (2015), Scott Stallings (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Par 5 Scoring
4) Bogey Avoidance
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)

Betting Card

Wins: 1
+29 units

It’s always good to be transparent as someone that offers DFS and betting advice. I’ll be honest, I didn’t even know who Adam Long was before last week’s tournament. I like to think I do a deep dive into the field each week, but Long wasn’t even a blip on my radar. Luckily, we started the year with a win, so we are still playing with house money. Again, betting on outrights is a completely different animal than betting on the spread of an NBA or NFL game. We really only need to hit a few winners throughout the course of the season to be profitable.

Patrick Cantlay — 25/1
Hideki Matsuyama — 50/1
Emiliano Grillo — 50/1
J.B. Holmes — 66/1
Kyle Stanley — 70/1

Everything you Need to Know to Dominate PGA DFS

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Jon Rahm $11,400 $11,900 $17,700 7 10 0% 50% 0% 2/2 29 1 500 500 500
Rory McIlroy $11,100 $11,600 $17,200 8 14 -50% 25% -50% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Justin Rose $10,800 $12,000 $17,200 1 13 33% -100% 0% 2/4 8 4 72 75 500
Tiger Woods $10,500 $11,500 $16,900 13 15 -25% 0% 0% 2/4 23 110 500 500 80
Jason Day $10,100 $11,300 $17,000 12 15 20% 33% 0% 3/5 1 100 97 1 2
Tony Finau $9,900 $10,700 $16,400 10 18 0% 50% 0% 4/4 6 4 18 24 500
Marc Leishman $9,700 $10,800 $16,300 16 18 0% 36% 13% 4/5 8 20 72 27 2
Xander Schauffele $9,400 $10,000 $16,400 6 19 0% 56% -33% 0/3 78 110 139 500 500
Rickie Fowler $9,300 $10,900 $16,000 11 23 0% 10% 0% 1/5 78 100 72 61 105
Patrick Cantlay $9,200 $11,100 $15,800 17 25 0% -25% 0% 1/1 51 500 500 500 500
Charles Howell $9,100 $11,000 $15,600 56 28 0% -22% 0% 5/5 6 2 16 5 37
Gary Woodland $9,000 $10,600 $15,600 24 28 0% 8% -9% 5/5 12 20 18 45 10
Jordan Spieth $8,900 $11,200 $15,500 20 32 0% -86% 0% 1/2 500 500 500 118 19
Cameron Smith $8,800 $9,900 $15,200 28 36 0% 30% 0% 2/4 20 33 85 127 500
Patrick Reed $8,700 $10,400 $15,200 15 36 0% 0% -7% 1/2 23 500 500 500 500
Alexander Noren $8,600 $10,500 $15,000 21 39 -6% -21% 0% 1/1 2 500 500 500 500
Cameron Champ $8,500 $9,800 $15,100 79 37 6% 27% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brandt Snedeker $8,400 $10,300 $14,800 48 43 0% -13% 0% 4/5 45 9 1 19 121
Keegan Bradley $8,300 $10,200 $14,700 32 44 0% -12% 0% 4/5 5 4 85 41 16
Abraham Ancer $8,200 $9,400 $14,600 58 49 -5% 25% -5% 1/2 20 500 129 500 500
Emiliano Grillo $8,100 $9,500 $14,400 49 51 -5% 15% 0% 2/3 12 33 107 500 500
Hideki Matsuyama $8,000 $11,700 $14,500 33 46 9% -567% 5% 3/5 12 33 72 75 16
J.B. Holmes $7,900 $14,200 99 61 -9% -9% 5/5 4 33 6 2 23
Daniel Berger $7,900 $10,000 $14,200 62 57 0% -28% 0% 1/3 500 110 72 24 500
Aaron Wise $7,800 $9,100 $14,100 53 60 4% 38% 4% 1/2 78 71 500 500 500
Sungjae Im $7,800 $9,000 $14,100 93 64 -4% 40% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Billy Horschel $7,700 $9,400 $14,000 37 65 0% 4% 0% 4/5 54 64 8 90 23
Luke List $7,700 $9,700 $13,900 64 66 -4% -22% 0% 1/3 12 91 85 500 500
Branden Grace $7,600 $13,800 52 72 -3% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Palmer $7,600 $9,100 $13,200 76 87 -17% 13% 3% 1/1 2 500 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $7,500 $9,100 $13,900 34 69 6% 26% -4% 4/5 51 14 25 67 121
C.T. Pan $7,500 $8,900 $13,600 102 77 0% 35% 0% 2/2 35 2 500 500 500
Adam Scott $7,500 $9,300 $13,600 42 77 -3% -7% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Russell Knox $7,400 $9,200 $13,400 66 83 3% 3% 0% 2/3 29 500 500 127 10
Dylan Frittelli $7,400 $8,200 $12,900 83 98 -6% 47% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,400 $9,000 $13,400 68 88 -3% 19% -6% 2/3 35 500 18 500 500
Beau Hossler $7,400 $9,700 $12,900 94 100 -12% -65% -3% 2/2 35 49 500 500 500
Ryan Moore $7,300 $9,900 $12,800 82 104 -11% -110% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.J. Spaun $7,300 $9,200 $13,000 116 98 5% -6% 0% 2/2 23 9 500 500 500
Joaquin Niemann $7,300 $9,500 $12,900 161 101 -3% -50% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Hudson Swafford $7,300 $7,800 $12,700 223 111 -21% 47% -7% 1/4 500 110 13 90 113
Harris English $7,300 $7,800 $12,700 318 104 -8% 52% 5% 4/4 8 14 31 2 500
Kevin Tway $7,200 $9,600 $12,700 84 103 7% -60% 7% 3/3 35 41 500 500 37
Pat Perez $7,200 $9,200 $12,800 72 104 0% -26% -8% 3/4 500 4 72 74 2
Harold Varner $7,200 $9,000 $12,600 154 113 -9% -9% 0% 1/3 143 138 31 500 500
Jimmy Walker $7,200 $8,800 $12,800 92 105 -2% 12% -10% 3/5 63 100 4 7 83
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,200 $8,600 $12,600 38 117 -12% 11% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charl Schwartzel $7,200 $8,500 $12,700 90 109 -5% 20% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Kokrak $7,100 $8,500 $12,500 129 121 -2% 11% 2% 1/2 500 91 25 500 500
Danny Lee $7,100 $8,200 $12,200 98 137 -18% 15% -9% 3/5 58 129 58 32 83
Peter Uihlein $7,100 $8,500 $12,600 89 117 2% 14% -2% 0/1 78 500 500 500 500
Brendan Steele $7,100 $9,300 $12,200 122 133 -12% -83% -4% 5/5 29 20 49 45 28
Patrick Rodgers $7,100 $8,700 $12,200 151 132 -10% -4% -2% 1/3 115 4 107 500 500
JT Poston $7,100 $8,400 $12,200 259 133 -12% 10% -4% 1/2 73 129 500 500 500
Brian Harman $7,100 $9,200 $12,400 60 131 -8% -56% -2% 3/4 147 9 71 32 500
Danny Willett $7,100 $8,000 $12,600 78 125 -4% 30% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $7,000 $9,200 $12,100 85 144 -5% -76% 0% 2/5 105 20 85 118 28
Charley Hoffman $7,000 $9,300 $12,200 63 135 0% -90% -8% 4/5 35 54 43 90 7
Martin Laird $7,000 $9,100 $12,200 227 140 -4% -51% -11% 4/5 124 74 8 7 37
Keith Mitchell $7,000 $8,300 $12,200 147 129 9% 19% 2% 1/1 63 500 500 500 500
Richy Werenski $7,000 $9,000 $12,100 165 146 -11% -47% -5% 1/2 78 20 500 500 500
Anders Albertson $7,000 $8,000 $12,100 225 146 -9% 15% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Kirk $7,000 $8,500 $11,900 173 159 -19% -21% 0% 2/2 35 500 500 32 500
Bill Haas $7,000 $9,300 $12,100 224 153 -14% -117% -8% 3/4 54 500 97 19 43
Michael Thompson $7,000 $8,300 $12,000 263 150 -12% 0% 4% 3/4 135 14 63 11 500
Nick Watney $6,900 $8,800 $12,100 149 146 8% -22% -2% 3/5 58 91 107 7 59
Joel Dahmen $6,900 $8,500 $11,700 203 188 -18% -39% -3% 0/1 115 500 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $6,900 $8,900 $11,900 69 160 -5% -44% -1% 2/3 23 500 58 500 83
Jhonattan Vegas $6,900 $8,300 $12,100 134 155 -2% -5% -12% 4/5 78 28 18 11 59
Denny McCarthy $6,900 $8,300 $11,900 181 161 -6% -9% -3% 0/1 105 500 500 500 500
Bud Cauley $6,900 $9,000 $12,100 234 154 0% -53% -10% 2/3 58 80 25 500 500
Scott Stallings $6,900 $8,100 $11,700 228 188 -20% -11% -4% 3/5 115 80 25 2 1
Sean O’Hair $6,900 $7,500 $11,800 188 176 -12% 26% 0% 2/2 69 500 500 69 500
Dominic Bozzelli $6,900 $11,900 293 171 -11% -7% 0/1 500 151 500 500 500
Kevin Streelman $6,800 $8,400 $11,700 196 178 -1% -25% 0% 3/3 29 67 3 500 500
Braden Thornberry $6,800 $7,000 $11,700 1135 219 -13% 35% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brice Garnett $6,800 $8,200 $11,900 115 168 4% -6% -6% 2/4 35 500 118 90 75
Brandon Harkins $6,800 $7,700 $11,500 275 213 -11% 10% 1% 1/1 12 500 500 500 500
Sam Burns $6,800 $8,100 $11,900 114 163 5% 0% -4% 0/1 115 500 500 500 500
Talor Gooch $6,800 $11,600 242 200 -9% 1% 1/1 51 500 500 500 500
Sung Kang $6,800 $8,000 $11,700 187 191 -7% -10% -5% 1/3 69 91 97 500 500
Adam Svensson $6,800 $7,100 $11,300 382 228 -19% 29% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Long $6,800 $11,800 133 177 0% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Ryder $6,700 $8,600 $11,700 152 183 8% -43% -1% 0/1 115 500 500 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $6,700 $7,900 $11,700 206 199 4% -3% -7% 3/4 20 14 147 500 23
Roberto Castro $6,700 $8,400 $11,300 310 235 -8% -49% -5% 1/2 500 28 500 500 105
Robert Streb $6,700 $7,900 $11,500 189 218 0% -6% 0% 4/4 66 9 18 500 19
Ollie Schniederjans $6,700 $8,000 $11,400 207 225 -4% -19% -1% 2/3 78 9 49 500 500
Matt Jones $6,700 $7,400 $11,000 279 269 -19% 3% 0% 2/3 124 500 31 500 43
Tom Hoge $6,700 $7,200 $10,900 278 315 -32% 1% -9% 1/3 12 500 72 118 500
Viktor Hovland $6,700 $7,200 $11,300 243 -14% 14% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Kim $6,700 $7,200 $11,200 277 259 -18% 12% -2% 3/4 23 54 31 500 132
Bronson Burgoon $6,600 $8,700 $11,300 107 238 0% -79% -7% 1/2 105 500 62 500 500
Hunter Mahan $6,600 $8,000 $11,300 372 231 3% -23% -3% 4/4 69 67 43 500 47
James Hahn $6,600 $7,900 $11,300 166 241 -2% -20% -9% 3/5 45 91 58 41 121
Cameron Davis $6,600 $7,900 $11,300 113 227 5% -11% -1% 1/1 58 500 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $6,600 $7,800 $10,900 316 283 -12% -21% -2% 2/3 75 54 123 500 500
Scott Langley $6,600 $7,900 $11,300 280 236 1% -16% -6% 0/1 500 500 97 500 500
John Huh $6,600 $7,500 $11,000 352 275 -10% -2% -2% 4/5 45 76 8 45 113
Doug Ghim $6,600 $7,200 $11,200 700 247 -4% 13% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roger Sloan $6,600 $7,100 $11,300 369 222 8% 31% 1% 1/1 500 500 500 64 500
Peter Malnati $6,500 $7,600 $10,900 291 297 -3% -9% -3% 0/3 78 100 500 500 97
Carlos Ortiz $6,500 $7,200 $11,100 353 256 4% 13% 1% 2/2 500 500 49 11 500
Alex Prugh $6,500 $7,000 $11,300 431 238 9% 29% -7% 1/2 500 500 500 5 113
Ryan Blaum $6,500 $8,000 $10,900 273 275 0% -40% 0% 1/1 500 64 500 500 500
Kelly Kraft $6,500 $7,200 $10,600 217 332 -15% -4% 4% 2/3 147 28 31 500 500
Scott Brown $6,500 $7,300 $10,600 337 318 -10% -6% 8% 2/4 500 41 49 143 105
Stephan Jaeger $6,500 $7,700 $10,600 287 333 -16% -28% 3% 0/1 78 500 500 500 500
Jonas Blixt $6,500 $7,400 $10,700 439 347 -22% -20% -10% 3/5 115 20 6 53 97
Satoshi Kodaira $6,500 $7,300 $10,800 50 314 -8% -4% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sebastian Munoz $6,400 $7,200 $10,800 255 300 4% 4% 1% 1/1 500 54 500 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,400 $7,700 $10,900 243 272 9% -10% 1% 0/2 500 500 129 107 500
Fabian Gomez $6,400 $7,300 $10,700 585 331 -5% -9% -3% 0/3 500 500 72 75 83
Whee Kim $6,400 $7,900 $10,700 144 318 -1% -42% 1% 1/4 78 129 107 49 500
Kramer Hickok $6,400 $7,600 $10,800 172 311 2% -14% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,400 $7,300 $10,800 258 297 5% 1% 3% 1/2 124 49 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,400 $7,500 $10,500 417 356 -14% -26% -1% 0/1 78 500 500 500 500
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,400 $7,000 $10,700 334 376 -16% 2% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Hardy $6,400 $10,400 392 -20% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alex Cejka $6,300 $7,100 $10,700 346 328 4% 8% -2% 0/4 78 151 107 90 500
Mac Hughes $6,300 $7,600 $10,500 410 341 -1% -26% 3% 1/2 105 54 500 500 500
Brandon Hagy $6,300 $7,800 $10,700 479 339 0% -40% -6% 1/2 500 100 43 500 500
Adam Schenk $6,300 $7,800 $10,800 290 333 2% -37% -9% 0/1 147 500 500 500 500
Morgan Hoffmann $6,300 $7,200 $10,700 632 344 -2% -9% -8% 2/5 140 77 85 75 16
Julian Etulain $6,300 $7,300 $10,400 342 389 -10% -25% -1% 1/1 500 63 500 500 500
Chase Wright $6,300 $7,200 $10,700 240 347 -3% -10% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wyndham Clark $6,300 $7,400 $10,700 327 319 5% -11% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Tringale $6,300 $7,200 $10,400 600 424 -13% -21% -4% 4/5 58 73 107 69 66
Ben Crane $6,200 $7,800 $10,400 406 392 -3% -55% -2% 2/4 500 110 25 107 68
Benjamin Silverman $6,200 $7,900 $10,500 307 358 2% -61% -2% 1/1 67 500 500 500 500
Shawn Stefani $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 347 381 -2% 0% 0% 0/3 78 500 123 500 138
Seamus Power $6,200 $7,200 $10,500 374 365 1% -14% -2% 0/2 78 91 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 301 465 -10% -8% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,200 $7,100 $10,500 690 347 4% 1% 1% 1/1 35 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 691 394 -5% -3% -3% 3/4 135 500 49 32 47
John Senden $6,200 $7,200 $10,300 848 519 -13% -30% -1% 3/3 500 64 69 49 500
Hank Lebioda $6,100 $7,100 $10,400 490 447 -1% -11% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wes Roach $6,100 $7,000 $10,400 435 464 -3% -8% -8% 0/2 500 500 142 500 121
Jim Knous $6,100 $7,300 $10,400 559 450 -2% -32% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nicholas Lindheim $6,100 $10,400 378 425 0% -5% 0/2 143 129 500 500 500
Seth Reeves $6,100 $7,700 $10,400 464 476 -4% -55% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,100 $7,000 $10,400 361 476 -4% -9% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sang-Moon Bae $6,100 $7,000 $10,900 336 310 21% 18% -6% 2/3 78 500 500 32 28
Kyle Jones $6,100 $7,200 $10,300 313 526 -7% -31% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Grayson Murray $6,000 $7,600 $10,500 274 378 10% -35% -4% 1/2 75 100 500 500 500
Josh Teater $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 416 433 5% -5% -5% 0/1 500 500 500 500 144
Sepp Straka $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 445 518 0% -11% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kenny Pigman $6,000 $10,100 972 -4% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
D.A. Points $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 517 553 -3% -14% -3% 1/4 500 80 85 137 59
Rod Pampling $6,000 $7,100 $10,300 865 531 -2% -18% -2% 0/3 78 110 72 500 500
John Chin $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 502 674 -3% -15% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Thompson $6,000 $10,100 375 1114 -5% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious