PGA First Look: Genesis Open

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

Pebble Beach is one of my favorite courses on tour, but the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of my least favorite tournaments. The longer I play DFS golf, the more I dislike the three-course rotation where we only have ShotLink data for one of the courses. The pro-am format is fine, but the celebrities get way too much television time. Funny enough, last week was my most profitable of the last four months. In the end, Phil Mickelson staged a big comeback on Sunday to beat Paul Casey by three strokes. Many are already clamoring for a Mickelson win at Pebble for the U.S. Open, but let’s not get carried away. By the time June rolls around, it will be a completely different course.

The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Genesis Open. We have an incredibly stacked field on hand, as 14 of the top 20 golfers in the world are set to tee it up at Riviera Country Club. This is one of the best tests of golf on tour, as the course will test all aspects of a golfer’s game. The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,322 yards. It features three par fives that are reachable by most of the field if you find the fairway off the tee. The length of the course is a bit deceiving, as most of it comes on the par fours. Six of them measure between 450-500 yards.

The course features tree-lined kikuyugrass fairways and a number of dog legs that create tricky approach shots. Over the years, driving accuracy at this event is only 53% compared to the PGA Tour average of 61%. The greens are small and made of a bentgrass/poa mix. Over the years, greens in regulation at this event is only 57% compared to the PGA Tour average of 66%. With hard to hit fairways and greens, it’s no surprise that the winning score is typically between eight and 12 under par.

Here is the dispersion of approach shots hit at Riviera in past events:

  • 75-100 — 5%
  • 100-125 — 6%
  • 125-150 — 12%
  • 150-175 — 27%
  • 175-200 — 25%
  • 200+ — 25%

As you can see, there won’t be very many wedges into these greens. Long iron play will be critical, both to make the cut and to compete. We’ve seen a number of ball strikers fare well here in the past, but you can’t bleed strokes on and around the greens. We want to target golfers with very few weaknesses in their games. As far as the weather, it has rained quite a bit in the area and the forecast is calling for rain on both Tuesday and Wednesday. We should see better scoring conditions than last year’s firm and fast test.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Bubba Watson (2018), Dustin Johnson (2017), Bubba Watson (2016), James Hahn (2015), Bubba Watson (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Total Driving
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Bogey Avoidance
4) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)
5) Par 4 Scoring (Emphasis on 450-500 yards)

Betting Card

Yearly Numbers

Wins: 2
+33 units

Outright Bets

Tony Finau: 28/1
Hideki Matsuyama: 28/1
Tommy Fleetwood: 40/1
Adam Hadwin: 55/1

Top Five Bets

Adam Hadwin: 10/1
Jason Kokrak: 12/1
Tyrell Hatton: 14/1

PGA RotoAcademy Course w/ Notorious, STLCardinals84, and Jrozzinri

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $12,000 $18,000 3 8 0% 0% 0% 5/5 16 1 4 2 2
Justin Thomas $11,000 $11,900 $17,200 4 12 0% 0% 0% 4/4 9 39 54 41 500
Rory McIlroy $10,700 $11,500 $16,900 9 14 0% 40% 0% 2/2 20 500 20 500 500
Jon Rahm $10,400 $11,800 $16,600 6 16 -25% -67% -25% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bryson DeChambeau $10,200 $11,700 $16,600 5 15 20% 0% 0% 1/1 41 500 500 500 500
Phil Mickelson $9,900 $11,300 $15,800 17 24 -50% -29% -29% 2/2 6 34 500 500 500
Bubba Watson $9,700 $10,700 $15,900 16 20 14% 54% 0% 4/4 1 500 1 14 1
Tiger Woods $9,500 $11,400 $15,800 13 21 13% -17% 0% 0/1 111 500 500 500 500
Xander Schauffele $9,400 $11,200 $15,800 7 22 11% 0% -14% 1/1 9 500 500 500 500
Hideki Matsuyama $9,300 $11,100 $15,500 28 27 -10% -22% 0% 3/4 500 117 11 4 23
Jordan Spieth $9,200 $10,900 $15,700 23 24 9% 9% 0% 4/5 9 22 119 4 12
Tony Finau $9,100 $10,600 $15,400 12 29 0% 14% 0% 2/4 2 72 126 56 500
Patrick Cantlay $9,000 $10,800 $15,400 20 30 0% -8% -8% 1/1 4 500 500 500 500
Marc Leishman $8,900 $10,200 $15,000 18 35 -14% 11% 6% 2/5 102 72 5 119 59
Paul Casey $8,800 $11,000 $15,300 19 31 7% -40% 0% 4/4 49 39 39 2 500
Adam Scott $8,700 $9,600 $15,100 33 33 6% 42% 0% 3/3 53 11 2 500 500
Tommy Fleetwood $8,600 $10,100 $14,900 14 38 -12% 0% 0% 1/1 37 500 500 500 500
Matt Kuchar $8,500 $10,300 $15,000 22 36 0% -6% -6% 3/4 26 22 8 500 132
Cameron Smith $8,400 $10,400 $15,100 27 35 11% -6% -13% 3/3 6 28 63 500 500
Chez Reavie $8,300 $9,800 $14,300 48 46 -10% 0% 0% 2/3 73 105 7 500 500
Sergio Garcia $8,200 $10,500 $14,700 29 43 5% -33% 0% 2/3 500 49 108 4 500
Branden Grace $8,100 $9,900 $14,300 40 48 -5% -10% -5% 2/2 37 22 500 500 500
Louis Oosthuizen $8,000 $10,000 $14,600 26 44 9% -5% 0% 0/1 500 500 500 500 122
Charles Howell $7,900 $9,600 $14,100 57 53 -4% 4% 0% 4/5 37 15 75 61 101
Adam Hadwin $7,800 $9,700 $14,200 58 51 4% 0% 0% 4/4 6 34 16 22 500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,800 $9,800 $13,900 31 61 -4% -18% 0% 1/1 26 500 500 500 500
Tyrrell Hatton $7,700 $9,200 $13,700 30 71 0% 21% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sungjae Im $7,700 $9,100 $13,400 84 78 -11% 19% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Kokrak $7,600 $9,200 $13,400 114 77 0% 15% -4% 4/5 20 22 2 41 101
Martin Laird $7,600 $9,400 $13,300 222 85 -10% -7% -7% 4/4 9 8 11 500 65
Cameron Champ $7,600 $9,300 $13,200 78 76 3% 13% 13% 0/1 102 500 500 500 500
Andrew Putnam $7,500 $9,500 $12,700 47 97 -16% -32% -6% 1/1 500 500 500 49 500
Kevin Na $7,500 $9,000 $13,100 54 86 -3% 15% 0% 3/5 2 4 126 61 78
Scott Stallings $7,500 $9,000 $13,300 150 82 3% 21% -3% 3/4 4 500 92 66 45
Luke List $7,400 $9,200 $12,700 66 101 -9% -12% -9% 2/3 26 79 20 500 500
Bud Cauley $7,400 $8,900 $11,800 197 145 -57% -31% 0% 2/2 20 61 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,400 $8,800 $12,600 62 89 0% 29% 8% 0/3 91 72 92 500 500
Sung Kang $7,400 $8,900 $13,000 187 87 3% 19% 0% 3/3 16 22 8 500 500
Keegan Bradley $7,300 $9,300 $12,700 32 92 8% -13% -3% 3/5 77 34 77 4 20
Ryan Moore $7,300 $9,400 $12,000 90 145 -41% -83% -12% 3/5 9 79 10 22 90
Abraham Ancer $7,300 $8,900 $12,500 61 109 -3% 5% -3% 1/1 68 500 500 500 500
Jimmy Walker $7,300 $8,900 $12,100 95 125 -10% -2% 2% 3/5 91 11 77 41 20
Danny Willett $7,300 $8,500 $12,400 73 116 -8% 34% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.B. Holmes $7,200 $9,500 $12,400 100 110 7% -46% 0% 5/5 60 34 11 22 52
Aaron Wise $7,200 $8,900 $12,500 56 104 11% 7% 0% 0/1 77 500 500 500 500
Beau Hossler $7,200 $8,800 $12,100 93 132 -14% -2% -14% 0/1 102 500 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $7,200 $8,400 $11,900 216 141 -20% 22% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $7,200 $8,500 $11,900 67 129 -5% 28% 10% 2/4 500 117 72 111 3
Kevin Tway $7,100 $8,900 $11,900 89 141 -8% -26% -4% 0/2 77 117 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $7,100 $8,800 $12,100 69 126 10% 10% 0% 5/5 41 4 63 30 12
Russell Henley $7,100 $9,000 $12,100 102 130 4% -21% -7% 1/2 500 500 500 61 78
Kevin Streelman $7,100 $8,700 $11,800 168 131 2% 14% 13% 2/4 41 90 500 103 35
JT Poston $7,100 $8,700 $12,200 244 131 2% 14% -12% 1/1 500 17 500 500 500
Martin Kaymer $7,100 $8,200 $12,000 178 127 8% 41% 8% 1/1 53 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $7,000 $8,700 $12,100 139 133 7% 9% -16% 3/4 60 79 26 500 70
Joel Dahmen $7,000 $8,600 $11,700 170 173 -29% -20% -9% 0/1 77 500 500 500 500
Joaquin Niemann $7,000 $8,800 $11,800 166 150 -5% -18% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Gay $7,000 $9,700 $11,800 128 151 -11% -154% -11% 0/2 121 500 500 500 101
Charl Schwartzel $7,000 $8,200 $11,900 97 139 5% 32% -2% 4/5 68 117 45 41 5
Ollie Schniederjans $7,000 $8,300 $11,600 213 170 -27% 3% 0% 1/2 77 8 500 500 500
Sang-Moon Bae $7,000 $7,100 $11,800 314 157 -13% 51% -13% 3/3 75 500 500 8 12
Jim Furyk $6,900 $8,800 $11,800 217 165 -8% -37% -22% 3/4 91 39 500 14 23
Steve Stricker $6,900 $8,600 $11,400 282 184 -19% -25% 3% 1/1 500 500 11 500 500
J.J. Spaun $6,900 $8,500 $11,400 118 189 -24% -20% -1% 0/2 138 500 139 500 500
Brendan Steele $6,900 $9,100 $11,800 133 150 6% -57% -5% 5/5 49 39 39 14 10
Hudson Swafford $6,900 $8,000 $11,400 240 214 -35% 1% -11% 0/4 500 117 99 87 78
Bill Haas $6,900 $8,900 $11,700 265 157 0% -48% 5% 2/4 500 11 77 122 23
Jason Dufner $6,900 $8,600 $11,500 148 184 -19% -25% -3% 2/2 500 500 68 500 65
C.T. Pan $6,800 $8,600 $11,800 104 157 10% -5% -13% 0/1 77 500 500 500 500
Peter Uihlein $6,800 $8,200 $11,400 92 189 -12% -1% -1% 1/1 26 500 500 500 500
James Hahn $6,800 $8,400 $11,700 189 148 17% 16% 12% 4/5 14 28 119 1 29
Ryan Armour $6,800 $8,000 $11,000 116 236 -29% -5% -1% 1/1 64 500 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,800 $7,900 $10,800 245 264 -38% -7% -1% 2/4 121 39 500 39 101
Brandon Harkins $6,800 $7,600 $11,500 255 186 -10% 23% -6% 1/1 41 500 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,800 $7,500 $11,500 210 182 -6% 30% -1% 2/3 134 500 59 30 500
Sam Burns $6,800 $8,200 $11,300 111 216 -25% -13% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Danny Lee $6,700 $8,300 $11,400 98 198 -5% -13% -7% 1/4 77 90 77 69 500
Denny McCarthy $6,700 $7,800 $10,900 183 234 -14% 6% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,700 $8,100 $11,800 43 150 25% 28% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Anders Albertson $6,700 $7,800 $10,800 237 268 -26% -3% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Pat Perez $6,700 $8,800 $11,700 81 159 16% -33% 0% 4/5 41 28 119 41 75
Nick Taylor $6,700 $7,400 $10,900 305 259 -22% 14% -2% 3/4 41 55 26 111 500
Andrew Landry $6,700 $8,000 $11,400 112 165 13% 21% 12% 0/1 121 500 500 500 500
Ernie Els $6,700 $7,700 $11,000 418 243 -18% 6% -3% 2/5 77 117 26 134 35
Kyle Stanley $6,600 $8,400 $11,700 39 166 19% -1% -6% 1/3 77 39 500 500 122
Anirban Lahiri $6,600 $8,500 $11,400 167 189 9% -20% -1% 3/3 26 64 39 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,600 $7,500 $10,600 295 300 -20% 2% -1% 1/3 77 64 77 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,600 $7,600 $10,700 256 278 -16% 0% -2% 2/2 26 49 500 500 500
Hunter Mahan $6,600 $7,900 $11,100 360 214 1% 6% 3% 2/4 500 105 77 20 52
Patrick Rodgers $6,600 $8,100 $11,300 158 198 5% 0% 4% 2/3 26 22 108 500 500
Scott Brown $6,600 $7,400 $11,500 273 191 6% 27% -11% 3/5 77 2 39 134 45
Scott Langley $6,600 $8,800 $11,800 229 164 22% -35% -20% 1/3 500 500 99 22 114
Jhonattan Vegas $6,500 $8,100 $11,600 126 177 23% 11% -3% 3/4 102 15 500 75 40
Vaughn Taylor $6,500 $8,300 $11,000 270 245 1% -28% -5% 2/3 20 500 119 22 500
Mac Hughes $6,500 $8,100 $10,400 402 350 -25% -43% -4% 0/1 500 105 500 500 500
Ted Potter $6,500 $8,600 $10,800 107 250 0% -58% 1% 0/2 111 500 500 500 114
Harris English $6,500 $8,300 $11,200 336 223 6% -21% -1% 3/5 102 79 39 30 10
Michael Kim $6,500 $7,100 $10,200 287 455 -34% 1% -3% 0/3 91 90 139 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,500 $7,200 $10,600 52 300 -10% 15% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,500 $7,000 $10,200 722 473 -37% 4% -5% 0/2 91 105 500 500 500
Sam Ryder $6,400 $8,400 $11,000 152 236 12% -31% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Keith Mitchell $6,400 $8,200 $11,400 156 200 18% -9% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Davis $6,400 $7,900 $10,700 132 282 1% -12% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Schenk $6,400 $7,500 $10,700 335 277 3% 6% -1% 1/1 53 500 500 500 500
Fred Couples $6,400 $7,700 $10,600 1167 291 0% -4% 0% 0/3 500 500 108 76 78
Kramer Hickok $6,400 $7,400 $10,300 192 400 -20% -11% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Davis Love $6,400 $7,900 $10,600 452 266 5% -8% 5% 1/2 500 500 500 76 45
Tae Hee Lee $6,400 $7,000 $10,200 391 -19% 9% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Carlos Ortiz $6,300 $7,100 $10,300 377 341 -5% 10% -1% 2/2 500 500 26 20 500
Bronson Burgoon $6,300 $7,900 $10,600 117 309 2% -20% -6% 0/1 500 500 133 500 500
Julian Etulain $6,300 $7,300 $10,500 323 300 6% 11% 8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Robert Streb $6,300 $7,600 $10,600 193 305 3% -7% -5% 0/4 77 72 77 87 500
Stephan Jaeger $6,300 $7,600 $10,200 296 414 -13% -24% -2% 0/1 130 500 500 500 500
Jonas Blixt $6,300 $7,400 $10,700 397 300 6% 6% -5% 1/1 41 500 500 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,300 $7,800 $10,300 284 336 -4% -20% 0% 1/2 60 130 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,300 $7,300 $10,300 399 345 -6% -1% -2% 0/1 137 500 500 500 500
Jim Knous $6,200 $7,300 $10,200 497 509 -10% -13% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tom Hoge $6,200 $7,100 $10,600 275 318 7% 13% -8% 2/2 53 500 500 39 500
Adam Long $6,200 $7,500 $10,600 135 323 6% -6% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chase Wright $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 268 432 -6% 6% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
K.J. Choi $6,200 $7,200 $10,300 875 327 5% 8% 2% 4/5 111 17 5 30 12
Morgan Hoffmann $6,200 $7,300 $10,200 728 409 -4% -7% -1% 2/4 500 126 68 22 101
Seamus Power $6,200 $7,100 $10,200 409 541 -12% -4% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
John Huh $6,100 $8,000 $10,600 340 332 10% -32% -11% 3/5 26 49 138 129 35
Grayson Murray $6,100 $7,600 $10,600 292 309 14% -8% -6% 0/1 500 125 500 500 500
Kenny Perry $6,100 $7,200 $10,100 573 -7% -11% 0% 0/1 500 500 500 87 500
Vijay Singh $6,100 $7,300 $10,300 914 368 6% -3% -4% 4/5 73 72 45 12 45
Seth Reeves $6,100 $7,500 $10,200 488 511 -5% -25% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
D.A. Points $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 566 575 -8% -2% -1% 1/2 130 500 500 30 500
John Senden $6,100 $7,100 $10,200 839 473 -2% -1% -5% 1/4 500 79 99 76 18
Alex Cejka $6,000 $7,200 $10,200 376 550 -1% -10% -9% 2/2 500 55 500 67 500
Whee Kim $6,000 $7,400 $10,300 154 386 9% -9% -5% 1/3 134 61 92 500 500
Kelly Kraft $6,000 $7,300 $10,300 234 368 11% -3% -4% 1/2 63 117 500 500 500
Fredrik Jacobson $6,000 $7,200 $10,200 464 4% -5% -4% 0/2 500 500 77 500 101
Rod Pampling $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 876 632 -3% -2% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Block $6,000 $7,200 $10,000 1045 -5% -14% -1% 0/2 500 134 500 129 500
Timothy O’Neal $6,000 $7,000 850 -4% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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