PGA First Look: John Deere Classic

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

If you’re looking for more in-depth golf betting tips, check out our breakdown of the course and the PGA odds for the 2019 John Deere Classic.

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Event Preview

The conditions were still a little too easy for my liking, but what a tournament last week. TPC Twin Cities and 3M hosted a great event that produced a tremendous finish. Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff were battling back and forth all day and we had no shortage of golfers making big Sunday runs. After a luckluster performance on Saturday, Bryson DeChambeau bounced back in a big way on Sunday, including an eagle on 18 to set the clubhouse lead at 20-under par. It was looking like a three-man playoff before Wolff drained a 30-foot eagle putt of his own. These young kids are wasting no time getting acclimated to the big stage and they are clearly getting respect in the betting markets as three of the favorites in this week’s field.

After two new events and new courses, we finally get some historical data to work with. Most of the big names are overseas prepping for the Open Championship, but we still have a field full of golfers looking for their breakout win and/or a ticket into the final major of the year. TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,268 yards. Much like the last two weeks, we can expect a lot of birdies. The cut is almost always between two and four under par and the winning score is typically at least 20-under par. The fairways and greens are both made of bentgrass, while the rough is made of kentucky bluegrass. The fairways are easy to hit, the greens are easy to hit, and scrambling success is well above tour average.

The key to the week is approach play and putting. When Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have dominated an event, you know what it takes to succeed here. With that said, you need to be competent off the tee and I learned that the hard way by rostering Wesley Bryan here last season. Two of the par fives are reachable by the field and most of the long approach shots will come on the par threes. We can expect around 10 of the holes to play under par for the week, which goes to show how many birdies will be available. With easy scoring conditions and a major next week, long shots are firmly in play.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Michael Kim (2018), Bryson DeChambeau (2017), Ryan Moore (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Brian Harman (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)
4) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
5) Proximity

Sports Betting Picks

It’s safe to say I have underestimated the young stars on tour thus far. We typically see a learning curve for the top amateurs when they come out of college, but clearly Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, and Collin Morikawa are cut from a different cloth. It was another week of ‘close but no cigar’ for the bets. Sam Burns finished T7, but I didn’t place a top 20 bet on him. Lucas Glover hit the top 20 at 3/1, but was one shot away from posting a top five. Collin Morikawa hit the top 20 bet, but I didn’t place a top five bet on him. In total, we had 13 units in play and only brought back six. It’s always a wild week at the John Deere Classic, so let’s take a chance on some long shots.

YTD: 5 wins, -7 units

Outright Bets

Joaquin Niemann 25/1
Scott Brown 55/1
Peter Malnati 70/1
Sepp Straka 80/1

Top 5 Bets

Scott Brown 10/1
Vaughn Taylor 12/1
Cameron Tringale 12/1
Peter Malnati 14/1
Sepp Straka 16/1

Top 20 Bets

Hank Lebioda 5/1
Roger Sloan 6/1
Johnson Wagner 6/1
Shawn Stefani 6/1
Josh Teater 7/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Sal Odds DK % FD % FDRFT % Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Viktor Hovland $10,900 $11,600 $16,400 18 0% 50% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Collin Morikawa $10,700 $11,700 $16,400 18 0% -100% -100% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matthew Wolff $10,500 $11,400 $16,000 22 0% 25% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Joaquin Niemann $10,200 $10,900 $16,000 23 0% 50% -33% 1/1 23 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $9,800 $11,500 $15,900 25 0% -100% -20% 1/3 500 25 500 116 134
Sungjae Im $9,700 $10,800 $15,900 25 29% 44% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Zach Johnson $9,600 $10,300 $15,600 30 -50% 8% -20% 5/5 16 5 34 3 2
Charles Howell $9,500 $11,300 $15,800 26 11% -60% -14% 3/3 500 19 500 60 23
Brian Harman $9,400 $11,000 $15,800 26 10% -29% -29% 3/4 500 10 89 24 1
Daniel Berger $9,300 $10,700 $15,600 29 9% 0% 0% 1/1 500 5 500 500 500
Ryan Moore $9,200 $10,600 $15,600 30 8% 0% -10% 4/5 55 127 1 24 7
Sam Burns $9,100 $10,100 $14,700 43 -8% 0% 7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Wyndham Clark $9,000 $9,800 $15,000 42 7% 28% 0% 0/1 500 82 500 500 500
Kevin Tway $8,900 $9,700 $14,800 44 -7% 20% -14% 3/3 50 12 500 500 52
Kyle Stanley $8,800 $10,000 $14,700 44 6% 0% 0% 4/5 123 55 22 18 63
Bud Cauley $8,700 $9,900 $14,700 47 0% -6% -13% 3/3 500 12 8 500 52
Ryan Palmer $8,600 $9,300 $14,300 55 0% 36% 0% 1/2 77 135 500 500 500
Nate Lashley $8,500 $9,600 $14,300 56 -5% 9% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Joel Dahmen $8,400 $9,200 $14,300 56 5% 37% -6% 1/2 2 139 500 500 500
Scott Brown $8,300 $9,900 $14,300 57 0% -31% -17% 4/5 12 25 16 89 5
Martin Laird $8,200 $9,800 $14,200 61 0% -22% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $8,100 $9,400 $14,200 62 0% 12% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Watney $8,000 $9,500 $13,900 67 -33% -33% -19% 1/2 60 115 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $7,900 $9,100 $13,900 71 -40% -9% -30% 2/4 98 44 27 500 140
Mac Hughes $7,900 $9,000 $13,900 67 -24% 9% -15% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
JT Poston $7,800 $9,600 $14,000 66 4% -18% -4% 2/2 65 64 500 500 500
Bronson Burgoon $7,800 $9,400 $14,100 63 11% 8% 0% 2/2 2 500 47 500 500
Vaughn Taylor $7,700 $8,900 $13,700 67 3% 24% 15% 3/4 34 19 108 44 500
Cameron Tringale $7,700 $9,100 $13,900 65 14% 22% 7% 1/2 139 50 500 500 500
Talor Gooch $7,700 $9,000 $13,900 69 -17% 0% -26% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dylan Frittelli $7,600 $10,400 $13,600 76 -25% -233% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Danny Lee $7,600 $8,700 $13,700 75 -19% 16% -15% 1/2 500 500 500 3 109
Cameron Champ $7,600 $9,300 $14,000 67 9% -4% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Troy Merritt $7,500 $9,200 $13,700 67 14% 0% 9% 4/5 43 60 56 116 20
Sam Ryder $7,500 $8,900 $13,600 68 6% 11% 13% 1/1 2 500 500 500 500
Denny McCarthy $7,500 $9,000 $13,800 67 23% 21% 16% 1/1 34 500 500 500 500
Pat Perez $7,500 $9,500 $13,700 73 -3% -50% -9% 1/2 500 500 500 55 109
Brian Stuard $7,400 $8,800 $13,400 77 -5% 0% 0% 2/4 81 82 500 18 77
Jhonattan Vegas $7,400 $8,500 $13,700 75 5% 30% -12% 2/2 500 500 500 44 3
Harold Varner $7,400 $8,600 $13,600 75 0% 20% -3% 1/2 6 115 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $7,400 $8,800 $13,400 79 -10% -5% -5% 1/4 34 127 127 145 500
Sepp Straka $7,300 $8,700 $13,400 80 -2% 2% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Armour $7,300 $8,900 $12,900 97 -14% -32% -2% 1/2 500 106 500 60 500
Austin Cook $7,300 $9,700 $13,400 82 -5% -125% -10% 1/1 34 500 500 500 500
Joey Garber $7,300 $8,900 $13,100 93 -9% -27% -2% 1/1 500 500 72 500 500
Beau Hossler $7,300 $8,800 $13,400 77 2% -2% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Johnson Wagner $7,200 $8,200 $12,900 100 -4% 23% -4% 4/5 16 82 5 5 7
Shawn Stefani $7,200 $8,700 $12,700 105 -17% -24% -6% 4/5 98 44 40 35 13
Doc Redman $7,200 $8,300 $12,800 103 -8% 15% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Carlos Ortiz $7,200 $8,600 $12,900 93 2% 4% 2% 0/2 500 500 127 116 500
Brice Garnett $7,200 $8,800 $13,100 91 4% -12% 0% 1/4 118 500 100 98 45
Hank Lebioda $7,100 $8,200 $12,700 102 4% 22% 4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roger Sloan $7,100 $8,100 $12,800 103 0% 23% -4% 1/1 500 500 500 18 500
Russell Henley $7,100 $8,500 $12,700 105 -6% -6% -6% 1/1 500 500 500 500 27
Andrew Landry $7,100 $8,300 $12,600 120 -13% 2% -3% 2/2 55 500 8 500 500
Matt Jones $7,100 $8,400 $12,700 104 -2% 5% -2% 2/3 12 115 27 500 500
Jonathan Byrd $7,100 $8,000 $12,200 131 -23% 11% 2% 2/4 110 5 500 98 52
Scott Stallings $7,000 $8,000 $12,400 127 -5% 15% 0% 2/4 83 5 16 500 140
Andres Romero $7,000 $7,500 $12,200 148 -25% 24% -12% 4/4 7 25 67 500 45
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $7,000 $8,300 $12,700 104 8% 11% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Thompson $7,000 $8,700 $12,600 114 0% -31% -2% 1/4 98 500 74 55 123
Adam Long $7,000 $8,600 $12,400 127 -5% -27% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luke Donald $7,000 $7,900 $12,600 122 -3% 22% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Zack Sucher $6,900 $8,100 $12,300 134 -5% 1% -6% 1/1 500 500 500 44 500
Matt Every $6,900 $8,500 $12,600 113 11% -9% 0% 0/2 500 82 118 500 500
Peter Uihlein $6,900 $8,000 $12,300 133 -2% 10% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kramer Hickok $6,900 $8,400 $12,200 131 2% -12% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David Hearn $6,900 $8,300 $12,200 148 -12% -20% -11% 3/4 16 82 500 67 45
Robert Streb $6,900 $8,200 $12,100 150 -15% -15% -3% 3/5 121 74 143 14 37
Bill Haas $6,900 $8,000 $12,100 150 -17% -4% -4% 1/1 72 500 500 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,800 $8,100 $11,900 146 1% -3% 13% 1/2 130 19 500 500 500
Adam Schenk $6,800 $8,000 $11,900 155 -7% -5% 6% 0/1 83 500 500 500 500
Sebastian Munoz $6,800 $8,500 $12,200 142 3% -32% -6% 0/1 500 95 500 500 500
Roberto Diaz $6,800 $7,900 $12,100 157 -11% -3% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stephan Jaeger $6,800 $8,200 $12,200 133 8% -2% 0% 0/1 98 500 500 500 500
Wes Roach $6,800 $7,900 $12,100 147 0% 8% 1% 1/2 500 500 133 500 59
Seamus Power $6,800 $7,600 $12,000 169 -15% 11% -5% 2/2 16 25 500 500 500
Josh Teater $6,700 $7,900 $12,000 156 0% -1% 0% 1/2 500 500 500 28 77
Adam Svensson $6,700 $7,700 $11,600 183 -14% -2% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alex Prugh $6,700 $8,400 $12,200 138 13% -21% -5% 3/3 500 500 52 28 37
Cameron Davis $6,700 $7,800 $11,700 203 -22% -16% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roberto Castro $6,700 $8,400 $12,100 155 3% -35% -5% 1/3 500 115 500 44 137
Dominic Bozzelli $6,700 $7,700 $11,900 183 -14% -2% -10% 2/2 23 25 500 500 500
Fabian Gomez $6,700 $7,700 $11,800 189 -16% -5% -6% 1/2 23 500 500 98 500
Curtis Luck $6,700 $7,800 $11,700 181 -13% -7% 0% 0/1 500 82 500 500 500
Tom Hoge $6,600 $7,800 $11,800 172 2% -2% 2% 0/3 500 146 139 74 500
Brandon Harkins $6,600 $7,800 $11,700 181 -1% -6% 1% 0/1 83 500 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,600 $7,900 $12,100 163 6% -5% -12% 1/1 12 500 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $6,600 $8,600 $12,000 161 7% -65% -3% 2/3 500 500 40 74 52
Ollie Schniederjans $6,600 $7,600 $11,600 208 -11% -4% -1% 1/1 500 39 500 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,600 $8,100 $11,900 177 0% -26% -6% 2/2 55 77 500 500 500
Ted Potter $6,600 $7,700 $11,700 175 1% 2% 3% 0/1 500 500 500 500 77
Chris Stroud $6,600 $7,400 $11,300 230 -14% 4% 4% 4/5 30 19 74 5 59
D.J. Trahan $6,500 $7,300 $11,300 258 -15% -1% -6% 1/3 80 500 118 500 95
Jim Knous $6,500 $7,300 $11,000 259 -16% -2% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,500 $7,700 $11,900 169 13% 6% -1% 3/3 60 25 500 44 500
Chad Campbell $6,500 $7,100 $11,400 236 -6% 14% -1% 4/4 7 12 500 28 13
Benjamin Silverman $6,500 $7,600 $11,400 220 -3% -5% 2% 1/1 65 500 500 500 500
Ben Crane $6,500 $7,400 $11,300 250 -12% -3% -3% 2/4 110 25 500 127 37
Alex Cejka $6,500 $7,500 $11,000 284 -18% -14% -1% 1/2 500 135 500 55 500
Justin Suh $6,500 $7,400 $11,200 256 -13% -4% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Piller $6,500 $7,200 $10,900 300 -19% 0% 0% 0/2 83 500 108 500 500
David Lingmerth $6,400 $7,300 $11,300 236 3% 6% 2% 1/2 72 500 500 500 123
Chase Wright $6,400 $7,600 $11,700 198 10% -1% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Richy Werenski $6,400 $7,800 $11,700 200 9% -14% -7% 2/2 23 25 500 500 500
Anirban Lahiri $6,400 $7,500 $11,700 192 11% 5% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Arjun Atwal $6,400 $7,000 $10,800 342 -17% 1% -5% 1/4 65 500 100 98 109
Scott Langley $6,400 $7,600 $11,500 231 4% -8% -2% 3/3 500 500 40 35 27
Sang-Moon Bae $6,400 $7,300 $11,300 256 -3% 1% -4% 0/1 500 500 500 500 123
Brendon Todd $6,400 $7,000 $10,900 316 -11% 7% -2% 0/3 142 147 143 500 500
Michael Kim $6,400 $7,000 $10,800 350 -20% -2% -8% 3/3 1 71 47 500 500
Robert Garrigus $6,300 $7,500 $11,500 236 11% -3% -3% 3/4 30 500 22 24 109
Tyrone Van Aswegen $6,300 $7,400 $11,200 269 2% -8% -2% 2/5 110 39 74 55 77
Cody Gribble $6,300 $7,300 $11,400 244 8% 4% -4% 1/2 34 95 500 500 500
Kelly Kraft $6,300 $7,400 $11,300 248 7% -2% -2% 3/3 63 64 5 500 500
Anders Albertson $6,300 $7,500 $10,900 309 -1% -16% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Whee Kim $6,300 $7,100 $10,800 334 -4% 0% -2% 2/3 16 500 3 74 500
Julian Etulain $6,300 $7,200 $10,800 341 -7% -7% -4% 0/1 500 95 500 500 500
Derek Fathauer $6,300 $7,200 $10,700 356 -14% -14% -3% 3/3 23 50 500 55 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,300 $7,000 $10,800 353 -12% -2% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Boo Weekley $6,200 $7,100 $10,700 344 -1% -4% 2% 3/4 500 60 47 69 95
Billy Hurley $6,200 $7,000 $10,500 353 -3% -2% 4% 2/5 98 68 34 98 95
George McNeill $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 469 -13% -12% 1% 1/4 72 139 100 140 500
John Senden $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 394 -9% -8% 0% 2/3 34 500 100 500 45
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,200 $7,000 $10,800 322 4% 5% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.J. Henry $6,200 $7,200 $10,800 319 5% -3% 0% 3/5 34 10 74 116 63
Tom Lovelady $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 506 -14% -13% 0% 1/1 50 500 500 500 500
Austin Connelly $6,200 $7,000 $10,800 354 -5% -4% -10% 0/1 500 500 127 500 500
Chris Thompson $6,200 $7,000 $10,400 434 -11% -10% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Smylie Kaufman $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 516 -15% -14% -1% 0/1 500 115 500 500 500
Nicholas Lindheim $6,100 $7,000 $10,700 366 2% -6% -4% 2/2 69 55 500 500 500
Ricky Barnes $6,100 $7,000 $10,600 381 1% -7% -2% 4/5 43 55 5 98 68
Hunter Mahan $6,100 $7,100 $10,800 344 7% -4% -6% 1/3 34 106 89 500 500
Brady Schnell $6,100 $7,200 $10,600 338 10% -5% 8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Parker McLachlin $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 608 -9% -17% -4% 1/2 16 500 118 500 500
Seth Reeves $6,100 $7,000 $10,700 338 10% 3% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Chopra $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 591 -8% -16% -3% 0/3 130 500 118 500 95
Kris Blanks $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 656 -11% -19% 0% 1/1 71 500 500 500 500
John Chin $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 688 -11% -20% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Will Claxton $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 900 -14% -23% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chad Collins $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 519 1% -15% -6% 1/4 500 127 108 98 70
Jim Herman $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 450 4% -11% -3% 0/2 500 500 500 116 77
Fredrik Jacobson $6,000 $7,000 $10,500 400 6% -9% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tim Herron $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 622 -2% -18% -4% 1/5 83 115 62 98 109
Kyle Jones $6,000 $7,100 $10,400 391 7% -12% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Trainer $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 438 4% -11% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Davis $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 700 -4% -20% 1% 1/2 83 500 500 500 37
Dicky Pride $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 884 -6% -22% -1% 2/4 121 82 52 500 27
Ryan Vermeer $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 766 -5% -21% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ho Sung Choi $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 544 0% -15% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Darin Fisher $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1214 -7% -24% -2% 0/1 500 150 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site % Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2014 – 2018 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

Cover Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • Pimwi0927

    Thanks

  • BrianVT

    What is FDRFT?

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BrianVT said...

    What is FDRFT?

    FantasyDraft

  • Quikslver247

    When you list “Proximity” in your list of important statistics, are you referring to proximity from around the green or proximity on approach (from the fairway)?

  • DFSx42

    Any reason why OWGR was left out this time around?

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