PGA First Look: John Deere Classic

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-07-10 22:16:52

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

If you’re looking for more in-depth golf betting tips, check out our breakdown of the course and the PGA odds for the 2019 John Deere Classic.

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Event Preview

The conditions were still a little too easy for my liking, but what a tournament last week. TPC Twin Cities and 3M hosted a great event that produced a tremendous finish. Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff were battling back and forth all day and we had no shortage of golfers making big Sunday runs. After a luckluster performance on Saturday, Bryson DeChambeau bounced back in a big way on Sunday, including an eagle on 18 to set the clubhouse lead at 20-under par. It was looking like a three-man playoff before Wolff drained a 30-foot eagle putt of his own. These young kids are wasting no time getting acclimated to the big stage and they are clearly getting respect in the betting markets as three of the favorites in this week’s field.

After two new events and new courses, we finally get some historical data to work with. Most of the big names are overseas prepping for the Open Championship, but we still have a field full of golfers looking for their breakout win and/or a ticket into the final major of the year. TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,268 yards. Much like the last two weeks, we can expect a lot of birdies. The cut is almost always between two and four under par and the winning score is typically at least 20-under par. The fairways and greens are both made of bentgrass, while the rough is made of kentucky bluegrass. The fairways are easy to hit, the greens are easy to hit, and scrambling success is well above tour average.

The key to the week is approach play and putting. When Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have dominated an event, you know what it takes to succeed here. With that said, you need to be competent off the tee and I learned that the hard way by rostering Wesley Bryan here last season. Two of the par fives are reachable by the field and most of the long approach shots will come on the par threes. We can expect around 10 of the holes to play under par for the week, which goes to show how many birdies will be available. With easy scoring conditions and a major next week, long shots are firmly in play.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Michael Kim (2018), Bryson DeChambeau (2017), Ryan Moore (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Brian Harman (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)
4) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
5) Proximity

Sports Betting Picks

It’s safe to say I have underestimated the young stars on tour thus far. We typically see a learning curve for the top amateurs when they come out of college, but clearly Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, and Collin Morikawa are cut from a different cloth. It was another week of ‘close but no cigar’ for the bets. Sam Burns finished T7, but I didn’t place a top 20 bet on him. Lucas Glover hit the top 20 at 3/1, but was one shot away from posting a top five. Collin Morikawa hit the top 20 bet, but I didn’t place a top five bet on him. In total, we had 13 units in play and only brought back six. It’s always a wild week at the John Deere Classic, so let’s take a chance on some long shots.

YTD: 5 wins, -7 units

Outright Bets

Joaquin Niemann 25/1
Scott Brown 55/1
Peter Malnati 70/1
Sepp Straka 80/1

Top 5 Bets

Scott Brown 10/1
Vaughn Taylor 12/1
Cameron Tringale 12/1
Peter Malnati 14/1
Sepp Straka 16/1

Top 20 Bets

Hank Lebioda 5/1
Roger Sloan 6/1
Johnson Wagner 6/1
Shawn Stefani 6/1
Josh Teater 7/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Sal	Odds	DK %	FD %	FDRFT %	Cuts	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Viktor Hovland	$10,900	$11,600	$16,400	18	0%	50%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Collin Morikawa	$10,700	$11,700	$16,400	18	0%	-100%	-100%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matthew Wolff	$10,500	$11,400	$16,000	22	0%	25%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$10,200	$10,900	$16,000	23	0%	50%	-33%	1/1	23	500	500	500	500
Lucas Glover	$9,800	$11,500	$15,900	25	0%	-100%	-20%	1/3	500	25	500	116	134
Sungjae Im	$9,700	$10,800	$15,900	25	29%	44%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Zach Johnson	$9,600	$10,300	$15,600	30	-50%	8%	-20%	5/5	16	5	34	3	2
Charles Howell	$9,500	$11,300	$15,800	26	11%	-60%	-14%	3/3	500	19	500	60	23
Brian Harman	$9,400	$11,000	$15,800	26	10%	-29%	-29%	3/4	500	10	89	24	1
Daniel Berger	$9,300	$10,700	$15,600	29	9%	0%	0%	1/1	500	5	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$9,200	$10,600	$15,600	30	8%	0%	-10%	4/5	55	127	1	24	7
Sam Burns	$9,100	$10,100	$14,700	43	-8%	0%	7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Wyndham Clark	$9,000	$9,800	$15,000	42	7%	28%	0%	0/1	500	82	500	500	500
Kevin Tway	$8,900	$9,700	$14,800	44	-7%	20%	-14%	3/3	50	12	500	500	52
Kyle Stanley	$8,800	$10,000	$14,700	44	6%	0%	0%	4/5	123	55	22	18	63
Bud Cauley	$8,700	$9,900	$14,700	47	0%	-6%	-13%	3/3	500	12	8	500	52
Ryan Palmer	$8,600	$9,300	$14,300	55	0%	36%	0%	1/2	77	135	500	500	500
Nate Lashley	$8,500	$9,600	$14,300	56	-5%	9%	-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Joel Dahmen	$8,400	$9,200	$14,300	56	5%	37%	-6%	1/2	2	139	500	500	500
Scott Brown	$8,300	$9,900	$14,300	57	0%	-31%	-17%	4/5	12	25	16	89	5
Martin Laird	$8,200	$9,800	$14,200	61	0%	-22%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jason Dufner	$8,100	$9,400	$14,200	62	0%	12%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Nick Watney	$8,000	$9,500	$13,900	67	-33%	-33%	-19%	1/2	60	115	500	500	500
Peter Malnati	$7,900	$9,100	$13,900	71	-40%	-9%	-30%	2/4	98	44	27	500	140
Mac Hughes	$7,900	$9,000	$13,900	67	-24%	9%	-15%	1/1	16	500	500	500	500
JT Poston	$7,800	$9,600	$14,000	66	4%	-18%	-4%	2/2	65	64	500	500	500
Bronson Burgoon	$7,800	$9,400	$14,100	63	11%	8%	0%	2/2	2	500	47	500	500
Vaughn Taylor	$7,700	$8,900	$13,700	67	3%	24%	15%	3/4	34	19	108	44	500
Cameron Tringale	$7,700	$9,100	$13,900	65	14%	22%	7%	1/2	139	50	500	500	500
Talor Gooch	$7,700	$9,000	$13,900	69	-17%	0%	-26%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Dylan Frittelli	$7,600	$10,400	$13,600	76	-25%	-233%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$7,600	$8,700	$13,700	75	-19%	16%	-15%	1/2	500	500	500	3	109
Cameron Champ	$7,600	$9,300	$14,000	67	9%	-4%	-16%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Troy Merritt	$7,500	$9,200	$13,700	67	14%	0%	9%	4/5	43	60	56	116	20
Sam Ryder	$7,500	$8,900	$13,600	68	6%	11%	13%	1/1	2	500	500	500	500
Denny McCarthy	$7,500	$9,000	$13,800	67	23%	21%	16%	1/1	34	500	500	500	500
Pat Perez	$7,500	$9,500	$13,700	73	-3%	-50%	-9%	1/2	500	500	500	55	109
Brian Stuard	$7,400	$8,800	$13,400	77	-5%	0%	0%	2/4	81	82	500	18	77
Jhonattan Vegas	$7,400	$8,500	$13,700	75	5%	30%	-12%	2/2	500	500	500	44	3
Harold Varner	$7,400	$8,600	$13,600	75	0%	20%	-3%	1/2	6	115	500	500	500
Nick Taylor	$7,400	$8,800	$13,400	79	-10%	-5%	-5%	1/4	34	127	127	145	500
Sepp Straka	$7,300	$8,700	$13,400	80	-2%	2%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Armour	$7,300	$8,900	$12,900	97	-14%	-32%	-2%	1/2	500	106	500	60	500
Austin Cook	$7,300	$9,700	$13,400	82	-5%	-125%	-10%	1/1	34	500	500	500	500
Joey Garber	$7,300	$8,900	$13,100	93	-9%	-27%	-2%	1/1	500	500	72	500	500
Beau Hossler	$7,300	$8,800	$13,400	77	2%	-2%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Johnson Wagner	$7,200	$8,200	$12,900	100	-4%	23%	-4%	4/5	16	82	5	5	7
Shawn Stefani	$7,200	$8,700	$12,700	105	-17%	-24%	-6%	4/5	98	44	40	35	13
Doc Redman	$7,200	$8,300	$12,800	103	-8%	15%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Carlos Ortiz	$7,200	$8,600	$12,900	93	2%	4%	2%	0/2	500	500	127	116	500
Brice Garnett	$7,200	$8,800	$13,100	91	4%	-12%	0%	1/4	118	500	100	98	45
Hank Lebioda	$7,100	$8,200	$12,700	102	4%	22%	4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Roger Sloan	$7,100	$8,100	$12,800	103	0%	23%	-4%	1/1	500	500	500	18	500
Russell Henley	$7,100	$8,500	$12,700	105	-6%	-6%	-6%	1/1	500	500	500	500	27
Andrew Landry	$7,100	$8,300	$12,600	120	-13%	2%	-3%	2/2	55	500	8	500	500
Matt Jones	$7,100	$8,400	$12,700	104	-2%	5%	-2%	2/3	12	115	27	500	500
Jonathan Byrd	$7,100	$8,000	$12,200	131	-23%	11%	2%	2/4	110	5	500	98	52
Scott Stallings	$7,000	$8,000	$12,400	127	-5%	15%	0%	2/4	83	5	16	500	140
Andres Romero	$7,000	$7,500	$12,200	148	-25%	24%	-12%	4/4	7	25	67	500	45
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	$7,000	$8,300	$12,700	104	8%	11%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Michael Thompson	$7,000	$8,700	$12,600	114	0%	-31%	-2%	1/4	98	500	74	55	123
Adam Long	$7,000	$8,600	$12,400	127	-5%	-27%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Luke Donald	$7,000	$7,900	$12,600	122	-3%	22%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Zack Sucher	$6,900	$8,100	$12,300	134	-5%	1%	-6%	1/1	500	500	500	44	500
Matt Every	$6,900	$8,500	$12,600	113	11%	-9%	0%	0/2	500	82	118	500	500
Peter Uihlein	$6,900	$8,000	$12,300	133	-2%	10%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kramer Hickok	$6,900	$8,400	$12,200	131	2%	-12%	3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
David Hearn	$6,900	$8,300	$12,200	148	-12%	-20%	-11%	3/4	16	82	500	67	45
Robert Streb	$6,900	$8,200	$12,100	150	-15%	-15%	-3%	3/5	121	74	143	14	37
Bill Haas	$6,900	$8,000	$12,100	150	-17%	-4%	-4%	1/1	72	500	500	500	500
Trey Mullinax	$6,800	$8,100	$11,900	146	1%	-3%	13%	1/2	130	19	500	500	500
Adam Schenk	$6,800	$8,000	$11,900	155	-7%	-5%	6%	0/1	83	500	500	500	500
Sebastian Munoz	$6,800	$8,500	$12,200	142	3%	-32%	-6%	0/1	500	95	500	500	500
Roberto Diaz	$6,800	$7,900	$12,100	157	-11%	-3%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Stephan Jaeger	$6,800	$8,200	$12,200	133	8%	-2%	0%	0/1	98	500	500	500	500
Wes Roach	$6,800	$7,900	$12,100	147	0%	8%	1%	1/2	500	500	133	500	59
Seamus Power	$6,800	$7,600	$12,000	169	-15%	11%	-5%	2/2	16	25	500	500	500
Josh Teater	$6,700	$7,900	$12,000	156	0%	-1%	0%	1/2	500	500	500	28	77
Adam Svensson	$6,700	$7,700	$11,600	183	-14%	-2%	6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Alex Prugh	$6,700	$8,400	$12,200	138	13%	-21%	-5%	3/3	500	500	52	28	37
Cameron Davis	$6,700	$7,800	$11,700	203	-22%	-16%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Roberto Castro	$6,700	$8,400	$12,100	155	3%	-35%	-5%	1/3	500	115	500	44	137
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,700	$7,700	$11,900	183	-14%	-2%	-10%	2/2	23	25	500	500	500
Fabian Gomez	$6,700	$7,700	$11,800	189	-16%	-5%	-6%	1/2	23	500	500	98	500
Curtis Luck	$6,700	$7,800	$11,700	181	-13%	-7%	0%	0/1	500	82	500	500	500
Tom Hoge	$6,600	$7,800	$11,800	172	2%	-2%	2%	0/3	500	146	139	74	500
Brandon Harkins	$6,600	$7,800	$11,700	181	-1%	-6%	1%	0/1	83	500	500	500	500
Tyler Duncan	$6,600	$7,900	$12,100	163	6%	-5%	-12%	1/1	12	500	500	500	500
Stewart Cink	$6,600	$8,600	$12,000	161	7%	-65%	-3%	2/3	500	500	40	74	52
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,600	$7,600	$11,600	208	-11%	-4%	-1%	1/1	500	39	500	500	500
Ryan Blaum	$6,600	$8,100	$11,900	177	0%	-26%	-6%	2/2	55	77	500	500	500
Ted Potter	$6,600	$7,700	$11,700	175	1%	2%	3%	0/1	500	500	500	500	77
Chris Stroud	$6,600	$7,400	$11,300	230	-14%	4%	4%	4/5	30	19	74	5	59
D.J. Trahan	$6,500	$7,300	$11,300	258	-15%	-1%	-6%	1/3	80	500	118	500	95
Jim Knous	$6,500	$7,300	$11,000	259	-16%	-2%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sam Saunders	$6,500	$7,700	$11,900	169	13%	6%	-1%	3/3	60	25	500	44	500
Chad Campbell	$6,500	$7,100	$11,400	236	-6%	14%	-1%	4/4	7	12	500	28	13
Benjamin Silverman	$6,500	$7,600	$11,400	220	-3%	-5%	2%	1/1	65	500	500	500	500
Ben Crane	$6,500	$7,400	$11,300	250	-12%	-3%	-3%	2/4	110	25	500	127	37
Alex Cejka	$6,500	$7,500	$11,000	284	-18%	-14%	-1%	1/2	500	135	500	55	500
Justin Suh	$6,500	$7,400	$11,200	256	-13%	-4%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Martin Piller	$6,500	$7,200	$10,900	300	-19%	0%	0%	0/2	83	500	108	500	500
David Lingmerth	$6,400	$7,300	$11,300	236	3%	6%	2%	1/2	72	500	500	500	123
Chase Wright	$6,400	$7,600	$11,700	198	10%	-1%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Richy Werenski	$6,400	$7,800	$11,700	200	9%	-14%	-7%	2/2	23	25	500	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$6,400	$7,500	$11,700	192	11%	5%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Arjun Atwal	$6,400	$7,000	$10,800	342	-17%	1%	-5%	1/4	65	500	100	98	109
Scott Langley	$6,400	$7,600	$11,500	231	4%	-8%	-2%	3/3	500	500	40	35	27
Sang-Moon Bae	$6,400	$7,300	$11,300	256	-3%	1%	-4%	0/1	500	500	500	500	123
Brendon Todd	$6,400	$7,000	$10,900	316	-11%	7%	-2%	0/3	142	147	143	500	500
Michael Kim	$6,400	$7,000	$10,800	350	-20%	-2%	-8%	3/3	1	71	47	500	500
Robert Garrigus	$6,300	$7,500	$11,500	236	11%	-3%	-3%	3/4	30	500	22	24	109
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$6,300	$7,400	$11,200	269	2%	-8%	-2%	2/5	110	39	74	55	77
Cody Gribble	$6,300	$7,300	$11,400	244	8%	4%	-4%	1/2	34	95	500	500	500
Kelly Kraft	$6,300	$7,400	$11,300	248	7%	-2%	-2%	3/3	63	64	5	500	500
Anders Albertson	$6,300	$7,500	$10,900	309	-1%	-16%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Whee Kim	$6,300	$7,100	$10,800	334	-4%	0%	-2%	2/3	16	500	3	74	500
Julian Etulain	$6,300	$7,200	$10,800	341	-7%	-7%	-4%	0/1	500	95	500	500	500
Derek Fathauer	$6,300	$7,200	$10,700	356	-14%	-14%	-3%	3/3	23	50	500	55	500
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,300	$7,000	$10,800	353	-12%	-2%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Boo Weekley	$6,200	$7,100	$10,700	344	-1%	-4%	2%	3/4	500	60	47	69	95
Billy Hurley	$6,200	$7,000	$10,500	353	-3%	-2%	4%	2/5	98	68	34	98	95
George McNeill	$6,200	$7,000	$10,300	469	-13%	-12%	1%	1/4	72	139	100	140	500
John Senden	$6,200	$7,000	$10,400	394	-9%	-8%	0%	2/3	34	500	100	500	45
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez	$6,200	$7,000	$10,800	322	4%	5%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
J.J. Henry	$6,200	$7,200	$10,800	319	5%	-3%	0%	3/5	34	10	74	116	63
Tom Lovelady	$6,200	$7,000	$10,300	506	-14%	-13%	0%	1/1	50	500	500	500	500
Austin Connelly	$6,200	$7,000	$10,800	354	-5%	-4%	-10%	0/1	500	500	127	500	500
Chris Thompson	$6,200	$7,000	$10,400	434	-11%	-10%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Smylie Kaufman	$6,200	$7,000	$10,300	516	-15%	-14%	-1%	0/1	500	115	500	500	500
Nicholas Lindheim	$6,100	$7,000	$10,700	366	2%	-6%	-4%	2/2	69	55	500	500	500
Ricky Barnes	$6,100	$7,000	$10,600	381	1%	-7%	-2%	4/5	43	55	5	98	68
Hunter Mahan	$6,100	$7,100	$10,800	344	7%	-4%	-6%	1/3	34	106	89	500	500
Brady Schnell	$6,100	$7,200	$10,600	338	10%	-5%	8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Parker McLachlin	$6,100	$7,000	$10,300	608	-9%	-17%	-4%	1/2	16	500	118	500	500
Seth Reeves	$6,100	$7,000	$10,700	338	10%	3%	5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Daniel Chopra	$6,100	$7,000	$10,300	591	-8%	-16%	-3%	0/3	130	500	118	500	95
Kris Blanks	$6,100	$7,000	$10,200	656	-11%	-19%	0%	1/1	71	500	500	500	500
John Chin	$6,100	$7,000	$10,200	688	-11%	-20%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Will Claxton	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100	900	-14%	-23%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Chad Collins	$6,000	$7,000	$10,400	519	1%	-15%	-6%	1/4	500	127	108	98	70
Jim Herman	$6,000	$7,000	$10,400	450	4%	-11%	-3%	0/2	500	500	500	116	77
Fredrik Jacobson	$6,000	$7,000	$10,500	400	6%	-9%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Tim Herron	$6,000	$7,000	$10,300	622	-2%	-18%	-4%	1/5	83	115	62	98	109
Kyle Jones	$6,000	$7,100	$10,400	391	7%	-12%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Martin Trainer	$6,000	$7,000	$10,400	438	4%	-11%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Brian Davis	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100	700	-4%	-20%	1%	1/2	83	500	500	500	37
Dicky Pride	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100	884	-6%	-22%	-1%	2/4	121	82	52	500	27
Ryan Vermeer	$6,000	$7,000	$10,200	766	-5%	-21%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ho Sung Choi	$6,000	$7,000	$10,300	544	0%	-15%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Darin Fisher	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100	1214	-7%	-24%	-2%	0/1	500	150	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term	Description
Site % Odds	The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR	Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts	Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2014 – 2018 Columns	Course history at this event in the last five seasons.