John Deere Classic Betting Picks
From top to bottom, it was a solid week for our golf betting tips at the 3M Open. Bryson Dechambeau tried his best to rain on our parade as we faded the favorites in exchange for increased exposure on mid-tier and longshot odds. Two of the golfers we touched on were Colin Morikawa +7000 and Matthew Wolff +13500. The rookies played well enough through the first three rounds to meet up in Sunday’s final pairing. If you haven’t seen how the tournament ended, you don’t want to miss it.
Additionally, Lucas Glover had an amazing final round for a T7. We missed on guys like Jason Dufner, Luke List and Mackenzie Hughes, but hopefully you followed our lead and gave Wolff one more chance at +13500 for a winning online sports betting pick.
The 148th Open Championship is just two weeks away, but first we must make a stop in Silvis, Illinois. We’ll breakdown the course and the PGA odds for the tournament as we bring you PGA golf betting tips and golf betting picks for the John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic Course – TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run plays as a 7,268 yard Par 71. Similar to the last two weeks, birdies will be made in bunches. Eight of the last 10 winners have shot at least 20-under. Last year, Michael Kim set the 72-hole course record with a 27-under.
With Steve Stricker a three-time winner here, and other golfers like Zach Johnson, Brian Harman and Ryan Moore finding success at TPC Deere Run, it’s clearly not a prerequisite to bomb it off the tee in order to shoot a winning score on this track. The course includes some short Par 4s and three Par 5s that were littered with 41 eagles in 2018. Despite the need to go low on Par 5s, precision with approach shots has proven to be the most valuable skill for recent winners.
The John Deere Classic is the location of several notable first career victories, including Bryson DeChambeau’s and Jordan Spieth’s. With the Open Championship next week, you won’t see names like that returning, but there’s a whole new group of young, talented golfers looking to earn their first win on Tour.
Favorites at The John Deere Classic
Some of those young golfers include three of the top five favorites around the industry. In fact, three of the top five favorites are golfers with fewer than five starts on Tour.
Collin Morikawa +1800 is the co-favorite with Viktor Hovland at PointsBet and at BetStars. You can find a slightly better price on Morikawa +2000 at FanDuel Sportbook, who actually has the lowest recorded scoring average in NCAA history. After the 20-year-old’s first victory, Matthew Wolff is down from +13500 last week to +2500 this week (BetStars).
Lucas Glover’s odds have taken a deep fall, in part due to the weak field and also because of his impressive finish at the 3M Open. Glover opens at +2900 a week after being +8000.
I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the golfers above wins but I’m more interested in Joaquin Niemann +2500 (DraftKings Sportsbook) and Kevin Streelman +2700 (FanDuel) in this range.
Niemann placed 23rd at the 3M Open after leaving strokes on the green, but he had two top-five finishes the two weeks before. In the field, he’s 14th in strokes gained approach and third in strokes gained tee-to-green. Streelman leads the field in strokes gained approach and strokes gained tee-to-green. He hit the ball well last week, but lost 4.5 strokes with his short stick, resulting in a T34. Streelman has a pair of top-10s at Deere Run dating back to 2012. He hasn’t won on Tour since 2014, but that might change if his putter can get hot this week.
John Deere Classic Mid-Tier Odds
Not far away from Niemann and Streelman is Zach Johnson +3300 (DraftKings and BetStars). The price tag is low for someone who hasn’t played all that great in 2019, but Johnson’s history at the John Deere Classic is undeniable. He’s placed fifth or better five times in his last seven appearances here. Johnson doesn’t come into the tournament with great form but don’t be surprised if he’s in contention on Sunday.
Two other mid-tier golfers that I like that you can find longshot prices on are Sam Ryder and Joel Dahmen. Both golfers proved they can go low here in 2018 as they were two of four runners-up at 19-under. Ryder has made four of his last five cuts, but hasn’t been in contention to win since 2018 when he had four top 10 finishes in his first full year on Tour. You can find Ryder +8000 at BetStars, which is much more appealing than +5000 at Fanduel. Dahmen hasn’t played since the Travelers where he finished 43rd. For the most part, Dahmen has struggled since a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo in early May, but he has the ability to get streaky and go low. Like Ryder, you can find a significantly better price if you go shopping. Dahmen is +8500 at DraftKings compared to +5000 at BetStars.
Longshots at the John Deere Classic
Longshots worth considering are Sepp Straka +9000, Harold Varner +10000, Carlos Ortiz +10000, Peter Malnati +10000 and Hank Lebioda +11000 (all odds referenced are at DraftKings other than Ortiz. Ortiz +10000 at BetStars).
Ninth and tenth in the field, respectively, Straka and Lebioda each match up very well in terms of strokes gained approach. Straka missed the cut at the 3M Open after losing strokes on the green, but he had a T11 at the Rocket Mortage Classic. Two weeks before that, he tied for 28th at the U.S. Open. Lebioda gained almost four strokes approach last week. His struggles off the tee will be alleviated this time around.
Varner doesn’t fit the same blueprint for success, but he did shoot 18-under at the 2018 John Deere Classic. Despite missing the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago, Varner gained strokes with his approach shots. In fact, he’s done so in two of his last three outings.
Malnati has played into the weekend in seven straight tournaments. He’s been exceptional with his approach shots, ranking second in the field in strokes gained approach over 24 rounds. In the same time span, he’s eighth in total strokes gained. The biggest thing holding Malnati back is his driver, which, as mentioned with Lebioda, isn’t so much of a concern this week. Malnati is priced as low as +6600 at PointsBet and BetStars.
You probably hadn’t heard of Ortiz until his T5 last week. Ortiz had his best finish this year thanks to over nine strokes gained tee-to-green, including five strokes gained approach in lieu of a modest 0.7 strokes gained putting.
And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.
(Top Photo: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports)