PGA First Look: PGA Championship

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

The year’s second major is finally here. After the change to the PGA Tour schedule, the PGA Championship is now held in May rather than in the final days of summer. Over the years, the PGA Championship has been the little sibling to the other three majors, but the schedule change should help. After this, it’s the U.S. Open and we close the year’s majors out with the Open Championship (which is personally my second favorite behind The Masters). Bethpage State Park is about an hour drive from New York. The property features five courses, but the Black Course will host this week’s tournament. It has hosted two U.S. Opens and a FedEx Cup playoff event in the past, so it is certainly a championship caliber course.

On the scorecard, Bethpage Black is a Par 70 that measures over 7,400 yards. The course features narrow, tree-lined fairways with fairly thick rough (at least in the past). On average, the fairways are around 31 yards wide, which is surprisingly the same number as Harbour Town. Obviously, with this course measuring nearly 500 yards longer than Harbour Town, off the tee play will be much more important. We will certainly hear more about the course as the week progresses, so make sure to listen for how challenging the rough is playing. If the rough is long and penal, we should focus more on total driving. If the rough isn’t expected to play a big factor, give a slight edge to distance over accuracy.

Unlike many courses on tour (mostly Pete Dye designs), everything is right in front of you. With that said, this is still one of the toughest courses golfers will see all year. It’s long for a Par 70, it features huge and challenging bunkers, the greens are elevated and fast, and there is plenty of trouble off the tee. There is only one water hazard on the course, but golfers can find the tall fescue if they spray it off the tee. The greens themselves feature poa annua grass, which is generally the least favorite surface of golfers on tour. There are a handful of golfers that love poa and a ton that can’t seem to figure it out. The greens this week may not be as bumpy as the poa on the West Coast, but this is still a good week to factor in putting splits by grass type.

As is the case with most major championships, being able to save par will be critical this week. Oftentimes, it’s less about making birdies and more about saving par. Taking your medicine by laying up and giving yourself a chance at par is better than trying to play the hero shot that will only compound the original mistake. Many of the fairway bunkers will require lay-ups, so all types of scrambling will be important. The course has had plenty of rain this spring (something crazy like 30 of the last 45 days), so the course is not expected to play as firm and fast as it is supposed to. This is a long course to begin with and it gets even longer when it plays wet. In terms of this week’s forecast, we have perfect golfing weather — temps in the mid 60s with very little wind.

Be sure to tune in to our weekly PGA DFS show and as always, check out our great premium content. Good luck this week!

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. There is no MDF this week.

Recent Winners of this Event: Brooks Koepka (2018), Justin Thomas (2017), Jimmy Walker (2016), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Bogey Avoidance
3) Strokes Gained Off the Tee (or Total Driving)
4) Strokes Gained Around the Green (or Scrambling)
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)

Sports Betting Card

I was a little upset that I didn’t have more exposure to Sung Kang, both in terms of DFS and in betting. He really stood out in my model and I talked about him quite a bit in last week’s video. Unfortunately, I took my chances elsewhere. To make matters worse, Nate Lashley just missed out on a top 20 finish. After losing six units last week, we are down to +1 units for the season. We hit the winner at The Masters, so hopefully we can get back on track for the year’s second major.

YTD: 4 wins, +1 units

Outright Bets

Dustin Johnson 11/1 (two units)
Xander Schauffele 28/1
Patrick Cantlay 45/1

Top 5 Bets

Patrick Cantlay 8/1
Tony Finau 8/1

Top 20 Bets

Jason Kokrak 5/1
Jhonattan Vegas 5/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello 6/1
Dylan Frittelli 10/1

Salaries, Odds, and PGA Championship History (2014-2018)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Sal OWGR Odds DK % FD % FDRFT % Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Tiger Woods $11,300 $11,700 $17,400 6 12 -200% 25% 0% 1/3 2 500 500 90 116
Dustin Johnson $11,100 $12,200 $17,700 1 10 50% 0% 0% 3/4 27 13 143 7 500
Rory McIlroy $10,900 $12,100 $17,400 4 12 -33% -100% -33% 4/5 50 22 87 17 1
Brooks Koepka $10,400 $11,800 $17,700 3 11 50% 33% -100% 5/5 1 13 4 5 15
Justin Rose $9,900 $11,500 $16,100 2 19 -17% -17% -40% 4/5 19 76 22 4 24
Francesco Molinari $9,700 $11,400 $15,900 7 23 -29% -29% 0% 5/5 6 2 22 54 58
Jon Rahm $9,500 $11,200 $16,100 11 18 25% 33% -20% 2/2 4 58 500 500 500
Rickie Fowler $9,300 $11,100 $16,100 10 20 11% 20% -60% 5/5 12 5 33 30 3
Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 $10,800 $15,600 16 29 -20% 8% 0% 2/4 35 61 500 100 74
Xander Schauffele $9,100 $10,900 $15,800 9 26 0% 8% 0% 1/2 35 129 500 500 500
Jason Day $9,000 $11,300 $15,900 14 23 25% -13% 0% 5/5 19 9 2 1 15
Bryson DeChambeau $8,900 $11,000 $15,200 8 35 0% -18% 0% 1/2 81 33 500 500 500
Tony Finau $8,800 $10,700 $15,100 15 35 0% 0% 0% 3/4 42 44 125 10 500
Matt Kuchar $8,700 $10,100 $14,500 13 47 -27% 5% 0% 2/4 81 9 117 7 500
Jordan Spieth $8,600 $10,600 $14,900 39 39 6% 0% 0% 4/5 12 28 13 2 116
Hideki Matsuyama $8,500 $10,500 $14,900 30 40 6% 0% -7% 5/5 35 5 4 37 35
Patrick Reed $8,400 $10,400 $14,100 20 66 -50% -59% -17% 4/5 104 2 13 30 58
Paul Casey $8,300 $10,000 $14,400 12 48 -5% 9% 0% 3/5 137 13 10 30 94
Patrick Cantlay $8,200 $10,100 $14,700 17 42 10% 10% 0% 2/2 27 33 500 500 500
Adam Scott $8,100 $10,200 $14,400 27 48 0% -11% -5% 4/5 3 61 18 118 15
Bubba Watson $8,000 $9,700 $14,300 18 54 0% 19% 0% 3/5 137 84 60 21 64
Phil Mickelson $8,000 $10,300 $13,900 22 68 -27% -56% -12% 3/5 115 118 33 18 2
Sergio Garcia $7,900 $9,700 $14,900 26 41 29% 37% -13% 2/5 81 95 106 54 35
Henrik Stenson $7,900 $9,900 $13,900 40 59 4% 0% 8% 4/5 93 13 7 25 3
Marc Leishman $7,800 $9,400 $13,700 23 74 -12% 12% 0% 4/5 71 13 60 78 46
Louis Oosthuizen $7,800 $9,800 $14,000 21 62 4% 0% -4% 4/4 500 2 22 30 15
Kevin Kisner $7,700 $9,600 $13,000 24 86 -11% -7% 0% 3/4 12 7 18 78 500
Gary Woodland $7,700 $9,900 $13,900 25 60 14% -4% 4% 2/4 6 22 106 500 74
Webb Simpson $7,600 $9,800 $13,800 19 64 13% -4% 7% 4/5 19 33 13 54 109
Jason Kokrak $7,600 $8,900 $12,600 66 115 -10% 25% -3% 3/4 19 33 49 500 132
Ian Poulter $7,600 $9,600 $13,400 28 79 0% -3% 0% 3/4 31 22 500 110 58
Cameron Smith $7,500 $9,300 $12,200 29 131 -42% -34% -9% 2/3 56 140 500 25 500
Brandt Snedeker $7,500 $9,500 $12,200 52 136 -45% -55% -12% 4/4 42 500 56 12 13
Hao-Tong Li $7,500 $9,000 $12,400 37 128 -33% -7% -19% 0/1 500 76 500 500 500
Sungjae Im $7,400 $8,900 $12,100 60 140 -42% -16% 0% 1/1 42 500 500 500 500
Ryan Moore $7,400 $8,700 $12,200 77 129 -25% 10% -5% 5/5 59 13 70 37 40
Tyrrell Hatton $7,400 $9,000 $12,200 38 126 -14% 0% 5% 3/4 10 84 10 25 500
Billy Horschel $7,400 $9,000 $12,300 43 127 -17% -2% -5% 5/5 35 48 79 25 58
Branden Grace $7,400 $9,400 $12,200 48 127 -17% -27% 2% 4/5 27 106 4 3 46
Lucas Glover $7,300 $9,100 $12,600 83 103 22% 18% 0% 1/1 500 33 500 500 500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,300 $9,200 $12,500 36 117 17% 8% 3% 3/5 10 84 49 90 73
Joel Dahmen $7,300 $8,600 $12,200 81 137 -20% 14% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,300 $8,700 $11,800 55 174 -73% -42% -9% 3/4 56 44 96 500 30
Keith Mitchell $7,300 $8,200 $12,500 56 120 15% 56% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,200 $8,700 $12,100 53 148 -24% -14% -12% 0/2 144 500 96 500 500
Sung Kang $7,200 $12,100 75 142 -13% -2% 1/1 500 44 500 500 500
Keegan Bradley $7,200 $9,500 $12,300 35 129 2% -45% -13% 4/5 42 33 42 61 94
Ryan Palmer $7,200 $8,800 $11,900 73 145 -17% -15% 13% 2/3 500 500 42 78 5
Zach Johnson $7,200 $9,100 $11,700 91 167 -50% -77% 0% 4/5 19 48 33 78 69
Shane Lowry $7,200 $8,600 $12,100 45 155 -33% -7% -20% 3/5 12 48 106 78 46
Alexander Noren $7,200 $8,700 $12,000 32 149 -26% -16% 0% 2/3 93 67 49 500 500
Jhonattan Vegas $7,100 $8,400 $12,200 80 125 25% 41% 7% 2/3 59 95 22 500 500
Aaron Wise $7,100 $8,500 $12,300 63 121 32% 43% 10% 0/1 115 500 500 500 500
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,100 $8,800 $12,400 34 123 26% 17% -5% 1/3 93 95 49 500 500
Byeong Hun An $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 57 147 -6% 2% -10% 2/4 56 28 96 100 500
Emiliano Grillo $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 61 145 0% 7% -4% 3/4 31 112 13 61 500
Charley Hoffman $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 70 140 6% 12% 2% 1/5 104 48 106 141 74
Jim Furyk $7,000 $8,700 $11,800 50 163 -14% -34% -3% 4/5 71 112 73 30 5
Thomas Pieters $7,000 $8,700 $12,000 92 159 -8% -28% -10% 2/3 6 133 86 500 500
Charles Howell $7,000 $9,200 $11,900 51 156 -5% -68% 0% 3/4 71 73 500 65 109
Graeme McDowell $7,000 $8,500 $11,700 120 163 -14% -6% 3% 1/4 500 84 143 100 46
Pat Perez $7,000 $8,000 $11,900 90 156 -5% 30% 0% 3/4 35 28 500 100 46
Justin Harding $7,000 $8,400 $11,800 42 161 -10% 4% 0% 0/1 93 500 500 500 500
Lucas Bjerregaard $7,000 $8,400 $12,000 44 152 -2% 12% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Berger $6,900 $8,500 $12,000 89 151 11% 6% -2% 2/4 12 84 73 90 500
Eddie Pepperell $6,900 $8,400 $12,200 33 146 17% 19% -28% 1/2 59 500 500 132 500
Max Homa $6,900 $8,500 $11,600 100 207 -23% -29% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kevin Na $6,900 $8,100 $11,600 49 185 -12% 9% 0% 2/5 19 76 22 90 94
Cameron Champ $6,900 $9,300 $11,300 102 232 -36% -157% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Kaymer $6,900 $8,000 $11,800 186 161 0% 26% -2% 3/4 42 500 7 12 74
Jorge Campillo $6,900 $7,100 $11,200 59 239 -41% 23% -3% 0/1 153 500 500 500 500
Joost Luiten $6,800 $7,900 $11,600 69 198 -5% 20% -4% 2/4 500 84 33 124 26
Corey Conners $6,800 $8,400 $11,400 86 216 -15% -24% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Andrew Putnam $6,800 $8,200 $10,900 58 269 -33% -23% -2% 1/1 59 500 500 500 500
Sam Burns $6,800 $7,900 $10,800 113 285 -44% -9% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luke List $6,800 $8,600 $11,600 76 201 -10% -40% -8% 0/2 81 84 500 500 500
Kevin Tway $6,800 $8,700 $11,200 104 229 -22% -78% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $6,800 $8,500 $11,700 47 176 1% -14% -4% 0/2 81 112 500 500 500
Lee Westwood $6,800 $8,300 $11,700 71 170 4% 7% -1% 4/4 500 67 85 43 15
Russell Knox $6,700 $8,300 $11,500 68 199 4% -4% 3% 2/5 35 95 22 90 84
C.T. Pan $6,700 $8,100 $11,600 54 200 2% 2% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Wallace $6,700 $8,400 $12,600 31 122 54% 46% -16% 1/1 19 500 500 500 500
Erik Van Rooyen $6,700 $7,900 $11,300 106 224 -9% 8% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $6,700 $8,100 $11,300 93 218 -6% -6% -1% 3/4 71 13 500 124 40
Jason Dufner $6,700 $7,900 $11,700 187 180 10% 24% -6% 3/4 115 58 60 68 500
Danny Willett $6,700 $8,000 $10,900 88 269 -20% -9% -2% 3/5 115 112 79 54 30
Tom Lewis $6,700 $7,000 $10,900 67 250 -16% 25% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chez Reavie $6,600 $8,400 $11,200 65 232 -1% -32% 0% 2/2 12 22 500 500 500
Abraham Ancer $6,600 $8,900 $11,500 62 196 15% -73% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Fox $6,600 $7,000 $10,900 84 273 -12% 20% -5% 2/2 27 54 500 500 500
J.B. Holmes $6,600 $8,800 $11,400 46 217 4% -81% -4% 3/5 81 28 96 24 64
Beau Hossler $6,600 $7,900 $11,000 110 276 -13% -5% -7% 0/1 115 500 500 500 500
Mike Lorenzo-Vera $6,600 $7,700 $10,700 115 320 -25% -6% -3% 1/1 65 500 500 500 500
Richard Sterne $6,600 $7,500 $10,900 131 281 -17% 5% -9% 2/2 500 28 500 500 35
Scott Piercy $6,500 $8,100 $12,400 64 123 60% 53% -3% 1/4 129 500 87 48 74
Michael Thompson $6,500 $8,000 $10,900 111 279 -7% -16% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,500 $8,300 $11,400 41 213 15% -9% 0% 2/3 115 500 66 68 500
Adam Hadwin $6,500 $8,100 $11,300 78 215 14% -2% 2% 0/2 104 129 500 500 500
David Lipsky $6,500 $7,900 $11,200 118 238 4% 4% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ross Fisher $6,500 $7,100 $10,900 105 276 -5% 17% -6% 2/5 65 76 42 110 94
Jimmy Walker $6,500 $8,300 $11,300 107 220 9% -16% -2% 3/5 42 95 1 90 7
Chesson Hadley $6,500 $8,000 $10,600 95 329 -19% -28% 1% 1/3 137 500 500 61 109
Joaquin Niemann $6,500 $10,900 141 260 1% 0% 1/1 71 500 500 500 500
Alexander Bjork $6,500 $7,300 $10,400 85 443 -27% -7% -3% 0/1 125 500 500 500 500
Julian Suri $6,400 $8,100 $11,600 97 190 29% 7% -1% 1/1 19 500 500 500 500
Steve Stricker $6,400 $7,500 $10,900 435 271 7% 9% -4% 4/4 500 54 42 30 7
J.J. Spaun $6,400 $7,800 $10,800 148 298 0% -3% -1% 1/1 35 500 500 500 500
Lucas Herbert $6,400 $7,000 $10,700 94 302 -1% 14% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Trainer $6,400 $7,300 $10,100 133 705 -25% -17% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adrian Otaegui $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 82 390 -12% 5% -1% 1/1 65 500 500 500 500
Jazz Janewattananond $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 72 390 -12% 5% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kurt Kitayama $6,400 $7,600 $10,700 108 325 -6% -5% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Caron $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 1975 -30% -10% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dylan Frittelli $6,300 $8,100 $10,900 96 268 17% -19% -1% 2/2 31 63 500 500 500
Brian Gay $6,300 $8,000 $10,700 137 317 4% -24% -2% 1/1 79 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $6,300 $7,800 $10,600 174 352 -2% -14% -2% 0/1 500 500 96 500 500
Shugo Imahira $6,300 $7,400 $10,400 74 383 -3% -4% 0% 0/1 81 500 500 500 500
Danny Lee $6,300 $7,900 $10,700 119 312 5% -14% -1% 2/3 500 125 56 43 500
Brandon Stone $6,300 $7,100 $10,400 152 467 -8% -2% -5% 1/3 12 144 148 500 500
Vijay Singh $6,300 $7,500 $10,300 508 531 -11% -17% -2% 4/5 78 66 96 37 35
John Daly $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 1119 -17% -7% -2% 0/5 104 118 125 139 116
Rod Perry $6,300 $7,200 $10,100 2024 -21% -19% -5% 0/3 500 150 96 500 123
Troy Merritt $6,200 $7,600 $10,700 185 326 9% -6% -5% 1/3 81 500 143 54 500
Patton Kizzire $6,200 $8,100 $10,600 98 338 6% -43% -1% 1/2 81 500 49 500 500
Adam Long $6,200 $8,000 $10,400 121 431 2% -36% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mikko Korhonen $6,200 $7,300 $10,800 87 305 13% 5% -3% 0/1 104 500 500 500 500
Padraig Harrington $6,200 $7,700 $10,700 240 336 7% -10% -6% 1/5 81 106 13 78 74
Richy Werenski $6,200 $10,300 206 480 -1% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Craig Hocknull $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 2024 -12% -11% -5% 0/1 125 500 500 500 500
Brendan Jones $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 101 569 -5% -4% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
John O’Leary $6,200 $7,200 $10,100 2028 -17% -24% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cory Schneider $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 2143 -23% -22% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Armour $6,100 $7,500 $10,400 117 464 8% -13% -4% 0/1 93 500 500 500 500
Bronson Burgoon $6,100 $10,300 179 481 6% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Y.E. Yang $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 203 681 1% -6% -2% 1/5 133 129 87 48 94
Rich Beem $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 2024 -4% -11% -5% 1/5 104 125 73 136 138
Michael Kim $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 363 595 2% -5% 1% 0/1 146 500 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,100 $7,200 $10,300 79 517 5% -9% -2% 2/2 59 48 500 500 500
Shaun Norris $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 99 552 4% -3% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Balin $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 2143 -13% -22% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rob Labritz $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 2024 -4% -11% -5% 0/1 500 500 125 500 500
Ben Cook $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 2075 -9% -17% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rich Berberian $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 2075 -9% -17% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Shaun Micheel $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1893 7% -8% -2% 0/5 93 95 152 78 132
Craig Bowden $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1952 6% -10% -4% 0/1 144 500 500 500 500
Casey Russell $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1929 6% -9% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Vermeer $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2024 4% -11% -5% 0/2 129 149 500 500 500
Justin Bertsch $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2075 -1% -17% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Marty Jertson $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2143 -5% -22% -15% 0/1 146 500 500 500 500
Stuart Deane $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2024 4% -11% -5% 0/2 500 151 500 500 94
Andrew Filbert $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2143 -5% -22% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alex Beach $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2200 -8% -25% -18% 0/1 500 144 500 500 500
Tyler Hall $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 2075 -1% -17% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Mackey $6,000 $7,200 $10,100 2075 -1% -25% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jeff Schmid $6,000 $7,100 $10,100 2075 -1% -21% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site % Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.
Cover Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • SirChosen

    • Ranked #46

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I think Golf is your Favorite

  • apotratz09

    Is this course history or event history for the 2013-2017 columns? I always get confused by this.

  • kyastanley1

    @apotratz09 said...

    Is this course history or event history for the 2013-2017 columns? I always get confused by this.

    This is the event history

  • apotratz09

    Not as valuable as course history then. Especially considering that the event has been moved up 3 months.

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