PGA First Look: Sony Open

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-01-09 01:38:35

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

Before we get into this week’s event, everyone should go check out the new PGA RotoAcademy course that myself, Justin Van Zuiden, and Jason Rouslin put together. It is a four-part video course that covers the following topics:

• The importance of a weekly process and the best sites to use for research
• How each expert views recent form, long term form, course history, and statistical fit
• The different types of events and why our strategy needs to be flexible week-to-week
• How to maximize contest selection, both in terms of rake and payout structures

Event Preview

The new year got off to a hot start with Xander Schauffele shooting a 62 on Sunday to beat Gary Woodland by a single stroke at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Those that played last week don’t have to travel far, as the Sony Open is held at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. This will be the first full field event of the year, so we will welcome back the Friday cut sweat with open arms (until your golfer bogeys his final hole to miss the cut on the number). As with most cut events, there will be an MDF if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Even though Kapalua and Waialae are both in Hawaii, they play drastically different from tee to green. We had a long Par 73 last week and golfers will now face a short Par 70 that only measures 7,044 yards. Off the tee, golfers will see narrow fairways that have been incredibly tough to hit over the years. Driving accuracy here is nearly 10% lower than the average PGA Tour event. Typically, this would mean that we should focus on accurate drivers of the ball, but that’s not the angle that I am playing this week. There are many less than driver holes and the rough here is very playable. Each of the last two winners ended the week hitting less than 50% of fairways.

There is typically a strong correlation between driving accuracy and greens in regulation, but that’s not the case at Waialae. While the fairways are tough to hit, the greens are around 3% easier to hit than the tour average. This is definitely more of a second shot golf course, especially when you consider the fact that there are only two par fives on the course and both are reachable by the entire field. If we look at the data from the top ten finishers here over the years, most of the strokes gained were through approaches and on the greens. More than ever, putting will be factored into my model this week and more specifically, I will be looking at putting on Bermuda grass.

We should expect scores to be very low this week. Waialae has finished as one of the top three easiest Par 70 courses on tour in each of the last six years and the forecast for the week is expecting very benign conditions. We shouldn’t be surprised if the winning score ends up being in the 22 to 25-under range. One interesting trend that I found was that each of the last five winners here had played the Tournament of Champions the week before. To add to that, each of the last five winners gained at least a stroke putting the week that they won. If we can find a good iron player that can putt well on Bermuda and preferably played last week, we are in business.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event:Patton Kizzire (2018), Justin Thomas (2017), Fabian Gomez (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015 & 2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Par 4 Scoring
4) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)
5) Proximity

Betting Card

Starting this year, I am going to be posting my bets in the First Look rather than on Twitter. To make it easier to track, let’s assume that each bet is for one unit. Betting on outrights is incredibly volatile, as you really only need to hit a few winners over the course of the season in order to be profitable. Feel free to tail my bets and feel free to post your favorite plays in the comments section. While Justin Thomas is my pick to win, it’s tough to bet him at these odds, so I plan to load up on him in DFS instead.

Matt Kuchar: 40/1
Zach Johnson: 40/1
Scott Piercy: 50/1
Ian Poulter: 66/1
Jimmy Walker: 80/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	Cuts	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Justin Thomas	$11,400	$12,300	$18,700	4	6	0%	50%	0%	3/4	14	1	113	6	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$11,100	$12,400	$17,700	5	10	0%	-100%	0%	1/1	500	49	500	500	500
Gary Woodland	$10,800	$12,000	$17,300	22	13	0%	0%	0%	4/4	7	6	13	3	500
Marc Leishman	$10,500	$10,900	$16,600	18	17	-25%	44%	0%	5/5	47	20	28	37	5
Jordan Spieth	$10,300	$11,400	$16,900	17	15	20%	20%	0%	2/3	18	3	500	500	96
Cameron Champ	$9,900	$11,600	$15,900	81	24	0%	-50%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Patrick Reed	$9,600	$11,100	$15,800	15	26	0%	0%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Cameron Smith	$9,400	$10,200	$15,700	29	28	0%	47%	0%	3/3	18	27	81	500	500
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,300	$11,300	$15,500	28	32	-11%	-67%	-11%	2/2	500	27	500	78	500
Emiliano Grillo	$9,200	$9,900	$15,300	47	35	-30%	35%	0%	2/2	47	500	33	500	500
Paul Casey	$9,100	$11,000	$15,500	23	32	9%	-25%	-11%	1/2	500	113	500	30	500
Kevin Kisner	$9,000	$9,600	$15,200	39	35	0%	52%	14%	4/5	25	4	5	84	80
Charles Howell	$8,900	$10,400	$15,400	57	30	31%	31%	18%	5/5	32	8	13	26	8
Abraham Ancer	$8,800	$9,300	$15,200	56	36	-7%	52%	-7%	0/1	119	500	500	500	500
Kyle Stanley	$8,700	$9,900	$15,400	34	35	7%	30%	-27%	3/3	10	36	13	500	500
Zach Johnson	$8,600	$10,100	$15,100	68	37	0%	6%	0%	5/5	14	6	9	64	8
Matt Kuchar	$8,500	$10,500	$15,100	32	39	0%	-42%	-6%	3/3	500	500	13	3	8
Bubba Watson	$8,400	$10,700	$15,000	16	41	-6%	-90%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Adam Scott	$8,300	$10,600	$14,900	41	42	-5%	-82%	-5%	2/2	500	500	56	500	8
Brandt Snedeker	$8,200	$10,200	$14,800	49	42	-5%	-40%	-5%	1/2	500	98	2	500	500
Russell Knox	$8,100	$9,500	$14,300	69	56	-29%	0%	-4%	3/5	10	11	88	13	80
Russell Henley	$8,000	$9,400	$14,100	96	67	-41%	-7%	-3%	3/5	77	13	131	17	51
Si Woo Kim	$8,000	$9,200	$14,500	62	50	-9%	27%	-9%	2/2	58	500	4	500	500
Patton Kizzire	$7,900	$8,800	$14,700	91	41	25%	61%	14%	1/2	1	500	88	500	500
Brian Harman	$7,900	$10,100	$14,300	54	57	-17%	-65%	-8%	5/5	4	20	13	13	32
Ian Poulter	$7,800	$10,000	$14,100	38	61	-15%	-58%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Adam Hadwin	$7,800	$9,700	$14,200	70	59	-12%	-21%	0%	1/2	500	500	67	116	500
Keegan Bradley	$7,700	$9,800	$14,500	31	49	18%	-5%	-5%	1/3	39	120	123	500	500
Pat Perez	$7,700	$9,800	$14,400	65	53	11%	-14%	-4%	4/4	500	69	81	17	8
Chez Reavie	$7,600	$9,400	$13,900	63	71	-10%	-14%	-3%	4/4	18	8	42	26	500
Scott Piercy	$7,600	$9,500	$14,400	139	48	27%	19%	8%	4/5	25	57	13	2	80
Chris Kirk	$7,600	$8,900	$13,600	167	72	-17%	17%	3%	3/5	10	120	96	26	2
Kevin Tway	$7,500	$10,300	$14,300	83	55	21%	-86%	0%	1/3	69	120	500	500	123
Sungjae Im	$7,500	$8,600	$13,400	99	81	-18%	25%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Dylan Frittelli	$7,500	$8,700	$13,900	77	72	-3%	32%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jimmy Walker	$7,400	$9,300	$13,600	89	80	-6%	-23%	-6%	3/5	87	83	13	1	1
Andrew Putnam	$7,400	$9,600	$13,700	67	68	11%	-28%	6%	1/2	69	500	500	116	500
Danny Lee	$7,400	$9,000	$13,700	94	73	0%	5%	-6%	1/4	119	500	33	86	96
Patrick Rodgers	$7,400	$9,000	$13,600	145	77	-3%	3%	-3%	0/2	500	83	500	500	500
Steve Stricker	$7,300	$9,000	$13,000	245	97	-10%	-16%	0%	1/1	500	500	64	500	500
Stewart Cink	$7,300	$9,200	$12,600	88	123	-28%	-55%	-4%	5/5	32	36	42	37	20
Brian Gay	$7,300	$8,800	$13,200	146	93	-5%	9%	-5%	3/4	58	13	96	500	32
Jamie Lovemark	$7,300	$9,100	$13,100	160	92	-3%	-17%	0%	2/4	77	4	7	500	123
James Hahn	$7,300	$8,000	$13,100	158	94	-8%	34%	-5%	5/5	2	36	28	26	46
Kevin Na	$7,200	$9,100	$13,100	48	89	11%	-14%	2%	4/5	107	36	28	64	8
Ryan Armour	$7,200	$8,300	$12,600	116	106	-2%	19%	6%	1/1	39	500	500	500	500
Joel Dahmen	$7,200	$9,000	$12,200	202	147	-33%	-58%	-5%	1/1	73	500	500	500	500
Sam Ryder	$7,200	$8,900	$12,700	149	113	-9%	-17%	-4%	1/1	58	500	500	500	500
Sam Burns	$7,200	$8,300	$12,600	126	129	-20%	5%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jason Dufner	$7,100	$8,800	$12,800	123	112	4%	-4%	-7%	3/4	18	83	9	500	29
Anirban Lahiri	$7,100	$8,700	$12,600	150	129	-6%	-6%	-8%	0/1	500	132	500	500	500
Ted Potter	$7,100	$8,300	$12,200	109	143	-16%	-2%	-2%	0/2	107	500	500	500	104
Brian Stuard	$7,100	$7,300	$12,200	298	149	-24%	35%	-9%	3/4	4	45	500	101	6
Ryan Blaum	$7,100	$8,500	$12,800	262	102	10%	15%	0%	2/2	10	74	500	500	500
Jerry Kelly	$7,100	$7,800	$12,000		161	-36%	8%	-1%	4/5	14	83	9	6	3
Brice Garnett	$7,000	$9,100	$12,700	122	108	16%	-34%	0%	1/3	119	500	500	123	38
Vaughn Taylor	$7,000	$8,400	$11,700	303	193	-39%	-42%	-3%	2/2	76	57	500	500	500
Ben Martin	$7,000	$7,600	$11,800	383	184	-34%	9%	-4%	5/5	7	36	50	51	38
Hudson Swafford	$7,000	$8,200	$12,200	317	146	-5%	3%	-4%	4/5	54	13	9	101	8
Andrew Landry	$7,000	$8,000	$12,200	104	138	0%	14%	2%	0/1	119	500	500	500	500
Tom Hoge	$7,000	$7,200	$12,000	266	165	-23%	32%	-3%	2/3	3	500	123	71	500
Satoshi Kodaira	$7,000	$7,700	$11,900	46	179	-25%	13%	0%	2/3	143	49	81	500	500
Keith Mitchell	$6,900	$8,900	$12,600	152	123	21%	-19%	-2%	1/1	25	500	500	500	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$6,900	$8,100	$12,500	184	124	17%	17%	4%	2/2	7	27	500	500	500
Robert Streb	$6,900	$7,800	$12,300	183	142	10%	23%	-4%	3/4	107	49	500	17	68
Kelly Kraft	$6,900	$7,200	$11,700	209	200	-29%	20%	-7%	1/2	77	27	500	500	500
JT Poston	$6,900	$8,400	$11,600	351	217	-38%	-58%	-4%	1/1	500	64	500	500	500
Scott Brown	$6,900	$7,200	$11,400	340	242	-52%	5%	-5%	3/4	65	64	500	86	68
Vijay Singh	$6,900	$7,000	$11,600	858	214	-37%	25%	-2%	2/5	87	57	50	110	104
Cameron Davis	$6,800	$8,100	$12,100	107	149	13%	3%	3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shawn Stefani	$6,800	$7,200	$11,800	335	195	-13%	22%	-10%	3/3	500	36	50	6	500
Sam Saunders	$6,800	$7,900	$11,600	242	199	-14%	-16%	5%	1/3	25	500	104	126	500
Michael Thompson	$6,800	$8,500	$11,700	312	201	-17%	-55%	-8%	2/4	142	20	56	500	118
Benjamin Silverman	$6,800	$7,900	$11,800	292	182	-4%	-6%	-1%	0/1	87	500	500	500	500
Harris English	$6,800	$7,500	$12,100	334	151	10%	26%	0%	4/5	64	83	56	3	4
Shugo Imahira	$6,800	$8,300	$12,100	53	153	7%	-14%	-3%	1/1	54	500	500	500	500
Sung Kang	$6,800	$7,500	$11,400	206	226	-30%	-7%	0%	0/2	500	83	88	500	500
Troy Merritt	$6,700	$8,900	$12,300	172	132	29%	-31%	0%	1/5	96	132	137	30	80
Whee Kim	$6,700	$8,200	$12,000	134	159	14%	-10%	0%	2/3	141	79	84	500	500
Seth Reeves	$6,700	$7,900	$11,300	454	242	-23%	-39%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Nick Taylor	$6,700	$7,900	$11,700	311	189	1%	-12%	-1%	2/3	500	98	74	68	500
Seamus Power	$6,700	$7,300	$11,000	361	279	-32%	-8%	3%	2/2	54	49	500	500	500
Nicholas Lindheim	$6,700		$11,500	369	229	-18%		-5%	1/2	32	143	500	500	500
Yuki Inamori	$6,700	$7,500	$11,300	102	253	-28%	-18%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Yuta Ikeda	$6,700	$7,800	$11,500	92	218	-13%	-19%	0%	0/2	500	500	500	140	80
Johnson Wagner	$6,600	$8,800	$11,300	436	245	-14%	-113%	-3%	0/4	500	120	88	126	80
Adam Schenk	$6,600	$7,900	$12,100	272	156	23%	4%	-5%	1/1	39	500	500	500	500
Brandon Harkins	$6,600	$7,800	$11,900	271	180	16%	3%	-3%	1/1	25	500	500	500	500
Chase Wright	$6,600	$7,600	$11,700	224	209	1%	-4%	-12%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Scott Langley	$6,600	$7,700	$11,700	319	179	17%	11%	7%	1/2	500	500	500	30	104
Stephan Jaeger	$6,600	$7,800	$11,100	263	284	-22%	-42%	-3%	1/1	54	500	500	500	500
Rikuya Hoshino	$6,600	$7,200	$11,100	163	295	-26%	-7%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Roberto Diaz	$6,600			742	375	-49%			1/1	47	500	500	500	500
Rory Sabbatini	$6,500	$7,600	$11,300	201	204	12%	-1%	13%	3/5	32	45	96	6	104
Peter Malnati	$6,500	$7,500	$11,300	299	250	-5%	-16%	-4%	3/4	87	27	79	500	38
Fabian Gomez	$6,500	$7,500	$11,800	579	183	21%	13%	-3%	3/4	77	72	1	71	500
Kramer Hickok	$6,500	$7,800	$12,200	164	151	33%	15%	-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sean O’Hair	$6,500	$7,100	$11,700	204	207	11%	22%	-11%	2/5	96	11	42	133	138
Trey Mullinax	$6,500	$7,200	$11,400	260	234	0%	7%	-3%	1/2	500	57	500	101	500
Michael Kim	$6,500	$7,000	$11,400	265	229	2%	19%	-1%	1/3	134	20	96	500	500
Sang-Moon Bae	$6,500	$7,000	$11,300	324	242	-1%	17%	0%	2/3	77	500	500	51	32
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,400	$8,000	$11,700	447	188	25%	-17%	0%	1/1	39	500	500	500	500
Carlos Ortiz	$6,400	$7,100	$10,900	380	318	-11%	-5%	-5%	0/2	500	500	131	133	500
Luke Donald	$6,400	$8,000	$11,600	625	220	13%	-37%	-6%	2/3	77	500	28	51	500
Wes Roach	$6,400	$7,000	$11,100	421	284	-3%	8%	-3%	0/1	500	500	500	500	123
Josh Teater	$6,400	$7,000	$10,500	424	379	-26%	-13%	-2%	0/1	500	500	500	500	104
Wyndham Clark	$6,400	$7,400	$10,800	364	321	-12%	-23%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Max Homa	$6,400	$7,000	$10,700	840	361	-20%	-7%	-3%	1/1	500	500	500	6	500
Matt Jones	$6,300	$7,200	$11,500	279	224	17%	11%	-2%	2/2	39	500	500	70	500
J.J. Henry	$6,300	$7,000	$10,400	620	405	-21%	-16%	-2%	2/4	119	83	70	30	500
Tyler Duncan	$6,300	$7,500	$10,900	385	305	-1%	-29%	-2%	0/1	125	500	500	500	500
Adam Svensson	$6,300	$7,000	$10,600	444	361	-12%	-7%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jim Knous	$6,300	$7,300	$10,600	578	358	-11%	-27%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Julian Etulain	$6,300	$7,400	$10,700	360	353	-10%	-29%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Steve Marino	$6,300	$7,100	$10,900	710	282	5%	4%	4%	0/1	500	140	500	500	500
Davis Love	$6,300	$7,100	$10,600	1192	371	-16%	-17%	-3%	1/2	500	500	75	110	500
John Huh	$6,200	$7,300	$10,900	337	305	6%	-16%	-2%	4/5	119	27	33	78	72
Grayson Murray	$6,200	$7,500	$10,900	256	300	7%	-28%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Alex Prugh	$6,200	$7,000	$10,900	439	316	4%	2%	-4%	0/2	500	500	500	86	96
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	$6,200	$7,000	$11,000	345	289	9%	6%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez	$6,200	$7,000	$10,800	330	328	1%	-2%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Y.E. Yang	$6,200	$7,000	$11,200	194	261	14%	11%	0%	2/2	500	27	500	500	51
Kyle Jones	$6,200	$7,300	$10,600	302	347	-2%	-25%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Colt Knost	$6,200	$7,000	$10,800		336	-1%	-4%	-4%	3/4	69	83	75	17	500
Sebastian Munoz	$6,100	$7,000	$10,800	300	332	6%	-3%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sepp Straka	$6,100	$7,000	$10,600	422	371	-1%	-11%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kenny Perry	$6,100	$7,000	$10,700		361	2%	-7%	-3%	1/2	500	500	500	37	131
Chris Thompson	$6,100	$7,000	$10,300	371	492	-9%	-19%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Martin Trainer	$6,100	$7,000	$10,300	293	489	-7%	-18%	-1%	0/1	500	500	500	500	96
Eric Dugas	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		829	-10%	-21%	-1%	1/2	107	500	500	500	78
Jim Herman	$6,100	$7,000	$10,400	726	395	-5%	-15%	-1%	3/5	96	10	84	78	80
Takumi Kanaya	$6,100	$7,300	$10,500		392	-4%	-37%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Mac Hughes	$6,000	$7,500	$11,100	391	278	23%	-20%	0%	1/2	87	27	500	500	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,000	$7,100	$10,800	429	326	14%	-6%	-1%	0/3	107	83	141	500	500
Brady Schnell	$6,000	$7,000	$10,400	386	466	0%	-17%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Hank Lebioda	$6,000	$7,100	$10,300	502	534	-3%	-27%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
John Chin	$6,000	$7,000	$10,300	492	489	-1%	-18%	-1%	0/1	500	113	500	500	500
Roger Sloan	$6,000	$7,000	$10,500	472	368	6%	-10%	2%	1/1	500	500	500	67	500
Peter Jung	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		878	-5%	-22%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend