PGA First Look: The Masters
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
Event Preview
Like many golf fans, this is officially my favorite week of the year. Due to the scheduling changes of the PGA Tour, The Masters is now held on the same weekend as my anniversary. While my wife loves golf and will play some occasional DFS, I might have to miss an hour or two of the live coverage on Saturday. It will be difficult, but I have no choice but power through it. Before we get into the course breakdown, I wanted to give a shoutout to Corey Conners. He Monday qualified for the Valero Texas Open (after winning a six-man playoff), went on to win the event, and is now playing in The Masters. Golf is a funny game, isn’t it?
There is nothing quite like The Masters. Even if you aren’t a golf fan, you know about the piano playing in the background with Jim Nance calling everyone his friends. The perfectly manicured Augusta National provides a viewing spectacle whether you are there in person or watching on television. Even though The Masters has the worst field of all four majors, it is everyone’s favorite because of the course and the sense of nostalgia that you can’t escape. The storylines are always endless for the year’s first major, but this Masters in particular has some great ones — Rory McIlroy chasing his career Grand Slam, Tiger Woods looking to end his major championship drought, and Jordan Spieth looking for his first top 25 finish of the year.
There are 87 golfers teeing it up this week and at least 50 are guaranteed to make the cut. The official cut rule is that the top 50 and ties will move on to the weekend or any golfer within 10 shots of the lead. With a few amateurs and a few older gentlemen in the field, there are realistically only 75 golfers that can make the cut. Basically, we can expect around 75% of the golfers that we can actually consider in DFS to make the cut this week. This number is much higher than your average PGA Tour event and should change the way we build lineups. We can afford to be more aggressive and we can look for ways to gain leverage on the field.
Augusta National is a Par 72 that measures 7,475 yards. For the first time ever, hole number five will play 495 yards, which is 40 yards longer than it has played in the past. All four of the par fives are reachable and golfers will need to take advantage of their scoring opportunities if they want to be the one wearing the green jacket when all is said and done. The course features wide fairways and little rough, which is why longer hitters have had so much success here. It’s not a requisite to be a bomber, but it certainly helps. The length of the course doesn’t look daunting on paper, but they mow the grass against the hole direction to limit driving distance.
While the rough isn’t penalizing, golfers will have to miss on the right side of the hole if they are going to hit the green after a missed fairway. They’ll also have to play out of the pine straw at times and hopefully avoid the water hazards featured on five of the holes. The many undulations create unnatural lies on approach shots, which is yet another area where Masters experience is helpful. Once we get up to the greens, there are collection areas that gobble up errant approach shots. The bentgrass greens are lightning fast (sometimes up to 14 on the stimpmeter). Having experience on and around these greens is a lot more important than scrambling or strokes gained putting at another PGA Tour event.
This is a course where patience is key. There are plenty of birdie holes at Augusta National, but you can’t try to attack every pin. If you make a mistake, you have to take your medicine rather than trying to hit a miraculous recovery shot. You’ll hear about the first timer narrative and while there is certainly something to it, most golfers aren’t in their prime the first time they play here. I am not expecting a first timer to win this season, but we’ve seen younger golfers play well here in their first attempts (Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau to name a couple). It’s hard to put any real weight into this, but a right to left ball flight does help on a number of holes (likely why we’ve seen so many lefties play well here).
The cut line and winning score are both at the mercy of the weather. There has been rain in the area recently, which could lead to a slightly softer course. With that said, Augusta National might have the best drainage system of any course in the world, so I still expect it to play firm and fast. The course has ranked inside the top seven in difficulty on tour in each of the last three years. It’s only Monday, but it looks like we could be in for a windy week. On Thursday, double digit winds are expected throughout the day with gusts in the mid-teens. On Friday, the winds pick up a little bit with gusts around 20 MPH. As always, make sure to check the weather on Wednesday night and look for a possible edge with tee times.
That should just about do it with the course breakdown. This is a week that I am incredibly excited for. I know everyone wants to chase the big prize pools, but this is a great week to play cash games and small-field tournaments. The majors bring in a lot of casual viewers and in turn, casual dollars into DFS ecosystem. If you are chasing the top-heavy payouts, I have two pieces of advice. Number one — don’t roster any golfer that you don’t think can finish inside the top five. You’ll be surprised at how many golfers you can cross out from your player pool if you do this. And number two — manage the overall ownership for each lineup. You can roster the chalky golfer, but only if you build in some contrarian plays around them.
Best of luck everyone! If I can’t take down a big prize, I hope one of you can.
Cut Rule: Top 50 and ties move on after the first two rounds or any golfer within 10 shots of the lead.
Recent Winners of this Event:Patrick Reed (2018), Sergio Garcia (2017), Danny Willett (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Bubba Watson (2014)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Masters Experience
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Strokes Gained Approach
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Bogey Avoidance
This Week Only — 50% Off the Top PGA RotoAcademy Course
Sports Betting Card
It was a brutal week of bets and the worst part was that we didn’t even have a sweat heading into Sunday. I was hoping for a big week to help out the bankroll heading into The Masters, but that was wishful thinking. After losing all 11 of the bets last week, the profit is down to +8 units overall. But you know what, we didn’t want to waste our big week at the Valero Texas Open, right?
YTD: 3 wins, +8 units
Outright Bets
Tiger Woods 14/1
Brooks Koepka 25/1
Hideki Matsuyama 28/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Top 10 Bets
Patrick Cantlay 5/1
Ian Poulter 7/1
Charles Howell 10/1
Top 20 Bets
Matt Wallace 4/1
Emiliano Grillo 6/1
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Sal | OWGR | Odds | DK % | FD % | FDRFT % | Cuts | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $11,600 | $12,100 | $18,500 | 3 | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5/5 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 8 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,300 | $12,000 | $17,700 | 2 | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3/4 | 10 | 500 | 4 | 6 | 68 |
| Justin Rose | $10,800 | $11,800 | $17,100 | 1 | 12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5/5 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| Tiger Woods | $10,500 | $11,100 | $16,900 | 12 | 14 | 0% | 60% | 0% | 2/2 | 32 | 500 | 500 | 17 | 500 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,200 | $11,700 | $16,600 | 5 | 17 | -20% | -50% | -20% | 3/3 | 17 | 22 | 39 | 500 | 500 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,000 | $11,600 | $16,500 | 8 | 16 | 17% | 0% | 17% | 2/2 | 4 | 27 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,700 | $11,400 | $16,000 | 9 | 17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4/5 | 2 | 11 | 69 | 12 | 5 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,500 | $11,500 | $15,800 | 4 | 23 | -25% | -67% | -11% | 3/3 | 500 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $9,300 | $11,200 | $15,700 | 6 | 28 | -56% | -56% | -40% | 2/2 | 38 | 500 | 21 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,200 | $11,000 | $15,700 | 13 | 25 | -10% | 0% | -10% | 1/2 | 17 | 62 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Day | $9,100 | $11,300 | $15,600 | 14 | 26 | -18% | -63% | -8% | 5/5 | 20 | 22 | 10 | 28 | 20 |
| Paul Casey | $9,000 | $10,800 | $15,600 | 11 | 25 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 4/4 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $8,900 | $10,400 | $15,500 | 33 | 18 | 38% | 53% | 43% | 5/5 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,800 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 17 | 31 | -14% | 16% | -7% | 4/5 | 5 | 62 | 37 | 38 | 1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,700 | $10,600 | $15,200 | 26 | 29 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 4/5 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 68 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,600 | $10,900 | $15,900 | 7 | 21 | 44% | 25% | -13% | 3/3 | 20 | 33 | 500 | 500 | 50 |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,500 | $10,300 | $15,000 | 10 | 38 | -12% | -6% | -6% | 1/1 | 50 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Scott | $8,400 | $10,100 | $14,800 | 29 | 38 | -11% | 0% | 0% | 5/5 | 32 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 14 |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,300 | $10,500 | $15,100 | 22 | 39 | -11% | -31% | -24% | 3/5 | 36 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 52 |
| Tony Finau | $8,200 | $9,900 | $14,600 | 15 | 37 | 10% | 18% | 18% | 1/1 | 10 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,100 | $9,700 | $14,900 | 19 | 37 | 19% | 35% | 11% | 5/5 | 12 | 41 | 15 | 19 | 25 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,000 | $10,700 | $14,500 | 18 | 50 | -14% | -79% | -9% | 3/5 | 1 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 72 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,900 | $9,700 | $14,300 | 16 | 39 | 4% | 15% | 8% | 5/5 | 28 | 4 | 24 | 46 | 5 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,800 | $9,800 | $14,300 | 20 | 46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2/4 | 9 | 43 | 58 | 500 | 52 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $7,700 | $9,900 | $13,800 | 21 | 61 | -8% | -23% | 0% | 0/1 | 58 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sergio Garcia | $7,700 | $10,000 | $14,700 | 27 | 42 | 8% | -10% | -10% | 3/5 | 82 | 1 | 34 | 17 | 52 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,600 | $9,500 | $13,500 | 32 | 75 | -15% | -3% | -7% | 4/4 | 44 | 500 | 49 | 6 | 20 |
| Henrik Stenson | $7,600 | $9,600 | $14,200 | 38 | 55 | 4% | 7% | 0% | 4/5 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 19 | 14 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,500 | $9,800 | $13,400 | 24 | 67 | 0% | -21% | 3% | 1/4 | 75 | 81 | 500 | 56 | 26 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,500 | $9,200 | $12,600 | 31 | 101 | -28% | -3% | -3% | 2/3 | 38 | 62 | 17 | 500 | 500 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,400 | $9,500 | $13,300 | 23 | 83 | -6% | -10% | -3% | 3/5 | 20 | 62 | 29 | 28 | 52 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,400 | $9,600 | $13,400 | 28 | 74 | 3% | -7% | 0% | 2/2 | 5 | 500 | 55 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,300 | $9,300 | $12,700 | 35 | 95 | -9% | -6% | -6% | 3/4 | 38 | 32 | 7 | 500 | 52 |
| Eddie Pepperell | $7,300 | $8,800 | $12,300 | 40 | 119 | -36% | -2% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,300 | $8,900 | $12,300 | 104 | 131 | -45% | -14% | -7% | 2/5 | 54 | 3 | 63 | 38 | 52 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $7,200 | $9,100 | $12,600 | 37 | 117 | -19% | -13% | -19% | 1/2 | 44 | 90 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,200 | $9,400 | $12,800 | 47 | 81 | 11% | 0% | 3% | 3/4 | 500 | 27 | 10 | 56 | 37 |
| Hao-Tong Li | $7,200 | $9,400 | $12,700 | 39 | 105 | -6% | -19% | -12% | 1/1 | 32 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Wallace | $7,100 | $9,000 | $12,600 | 36 | 112 | -5% | -3% | -14% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,100 | $9,100 | $12,500 | 41 | 109 | -3% | -5% | -3% | 2/4 | 78 | 500 | 17 | 67 | 37 |
| Branden Grace | $7,100 | $9,200 | $12,500 | 44 | 117 | -13% | -22% | -13% | 2/5 | 24 | 27 | 63 | 67 | 80 |
| Charles Howell | $7,000 | $8,600 | $12,500 | 46 | 107 | 7% | 19% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,000 | $9,300 | $12,400 | 34 | 113 | 0% | -24% | 0% | 2/3 | 500 | 500 | 52 | 22 | 80 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,000 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 53 | 133 | -17% | 16% | -9% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 44 |
| Zach Johnson | $6,900 | $9,000 | $12,200 | 87 | 131 | -4% | -18% | 2% | 2/5 | 36 | 54 | 63 | 9 | 63 |
| Danny Willett | $6,900 | $8,400 | $12,100 | 78 | 136 | -16% | 2% | -2% | 2/4 | 58 | 54 | 1 | 38 | 500 |
| Alexander Noren | $6,900 | $8,600 | $12,400 | 30 | 135 | -13% | -6% | -21% | 0/2 | 69 | 62 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Keith Mitchell | $6,800 | $8,500 | $11,600 | 60 | 168 | -15% | -10% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,800 | $8,500 | $12,200 | 66 | 84 | 29% | 32% | 29% | 4/4 | 12 | 22 | 29 | 9 | 500 |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,800 | $8,700 | $12,200 | 45 | 124 | 4% | 0% | 4% | 2/3 | 500 | 50 | 4 | 56 | 500 |
| Martin Kaymer | $6,800 | $8,400 | $11,200 | 190 | 231 | -27% | -15% | -2% | 4/5 | 48 | 16 | 49 | 80 | 31 |
| Kevin Kisner | $6,700 | $8,700 | $13,700 | 25 | 62 | 46% | 39% | 0% | 3/3 | 28 | 43 | 37 | 500 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,700 | $8,800 | $12,000 | 55 | 86 | 33% | 20% | 34% | 1/2 | 24 | 84 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $6,700 | $8,500 | $11,800 | 42 | 180 | -8% | -12% | -4% | 2/2 | 44 | 500 | 15 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $6,700 | $8,100 | $11,100 | 48 | 267 | -19% | -3% | -2% | 1/1 | 52 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Shane Lowry | $6,700 | $12,400 | 50 | 133 | 0% | 0% | 1/3 | 500 | 54 | 39 | 56 | 500 | ||
| Emiliano Grillo | $6,600 | $8,900 | $11,700 | 59 | 167 | 5% | -29% | 2% | 2/2 | 500 | 51 | 17 | 500 | 500 |
| Corey Conners | $6,600 | 84 | 200 | 0% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 73 | 500 | ||||
| Aaron Wise | $6,600 | $8,300 | $11,500 | 67 | 204 | -2% | -4% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $6,600 | $8,300 | $11,300 | 102 | 219 | -5% | -7% | -2% | 5/5 | 20 | 18 | 29 | 38 | 8 |
| Andrew Landry | $6,600 | $7,400 | $10,400 | 128 | 395 | -18% | 1% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $6,500 | $8,100 | $11,400 | 54 | 213 | 5% | 2% | -2% | 2/3 | 500 | 54 | 55 | 12 | 500 |
| Stewart Cink | $6,500 | $8,400 | $10,600 | 96 | 340 | -5% | -23% | -2% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 14 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,500 | $8,200 | $10,500 | 97 | 343 | -6% | -14% | -2% | 0/1 | 65 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bernhard Langer | $6,500 | $7,200 | $10,200 | 835 | 444 | -10% | 3% | 1% | 3/5 | 38 | 71 | 24 | 56 | 8 |
| Adam Long | $6,400 | $8,000 | $10,200 | 108 | 505 | -11% | -18% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Tway | $6,400 | $7,600 | $10,700 | 98 | 310 | 3% | 3% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | $6,400 | $7,900 | $12,100 | 43 | 142 | 20% | 16% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,400 | $7,700 | $10,300 | 480 | 445 | -5% | -6% | -3% | 3/5 | 49 | 71 | 69 | 54 | 37 |
| Shugo Imahira | $6,300 | $7,500 | $10,200 | 77 | 464 | -1% | -6% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Harding | $6,300 | $10,800 | 49 | 286 | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | ||
| Satoshi Kodaira | $6,300 | $7,200 | $10,300 | 68 | 457 | 0% | 0% | -4% | 1/1 | 28 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Michael Kim | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 330 | 755 | -7% | -1% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alvaro Ortiz | $6,300 | $7,000 | 984 | -13% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |||
| Fred Couples | $6,200 | $7,800 | $10,200 | 469 | 4% | -13% | -4% | 3/4 | 38 | 18 | 500 | 89 | 20 | |
| Trevor Immelman | $6,200 | $7,300 | $10,000 | 461 | 833 | -3% | -12% | 0% | 0/5 | 69 | 81 | 58 | 89 | 80 |
| Viktor Hovland | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,100 | 911 | 578 | 1% | -3% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Angel Cabrera | $6,100 | $10,000 | 1000 | -3% | -4% | 2/5 | 82 | 78 | 24 | 22 | 72 | |||
| Takumi Kanaya | $6,100 | $7,100 | $10,100 | 813 | 3% | -6% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Devon Bling | $6,100 | $7,000 | 1333 | -4% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |||
| Kevin O’Connell | $6,100 | $7,000 | 1417 | -5% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |||
| Jose Maria Olazabal | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 1857 | -9% | -15% | -10% | 1/4 | 54 | 71 | 500 | 77 | 34 | |
| Jovan Rebula | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 850 | 6% | -5% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Mike Weir | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 1714 | -1% | -14% | -9% | 1/5 | 78 | 81 | 77 | 96 | 44 | |
| Sandy Lyle | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 1607 | 0% | -12% | -8% | 1/5 | 54 | 92 | 81 | 77 | 44 | |
| Larry Mize | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 1976 | -4% | -16% | -12% | 3/5 | 81 | 52 | 52 | 80 | 51 | |
| Ian Woosnam | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,000 | 3119 | -5% | -18% | -13% | 0/5 | 78 | 78 | 88 | 73 | 63 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site % Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2017 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |